David Corn

I had hoped for a clear winner but the embarassment of riches we have as candidates (having two near equal) is better than nothing.

Many of the states Obama won (or is close to winning) are caucus states: Idaho, Minnesota, North Dakota, Colorado, Kanas, New Mexico (not called yet), Alaska (not called yet). I know Obama made a special effort to get these states. I wonder if anybody has seen any exit-poll analysis on this dimension. For example, is the "over-65" crowd less likely to attend caucuses? Is there any particular reason Obama focused on caucus states?

One wonders if this process has become so rancorous that large segments of the population will simply sit this one out.

On the Democratic side, where Senator Clinton is the frontrunner by a nose, will blacks, if she is the nominee, stay at home because of all the slights, real and/or perceived, that have been directed at the first legitimate black candidate?

On the Republican side, the presumptative candidate, Senator McCain, is despised by many in his own party and even his own congressional delegation. Will they all follow the likes of Ms. Coulter and Mr. Limbaugh?

Interesting times.
Tom

I believe Senator Obama greatly suffers from the Bradley Factor, as it has been called. For instance, he was greatly leading in the polls in California, only to be wiped out.

Tom Bradley was the incumbent mayor of Los Angeles, expected to win another election. The polls had him greatly ahead, but he lost the election. The same happened to Governor Doug Wilder in Virginia and David Dinkins in his relection campaign for mayor. All were heavily favored to win, yet all lost.

The one thing they all had/have in common? They are all African-American.

Whether this country likes it or not, there are many citizens who tell a pollster they will vote for a black man, but do just the opposite in the secrecy of an election booth.

Here in NM (I’m in Albuquerque) the caucus is run like a regular primary. We vote privately on a paper ballot then put the ballot on a box. (same as the general election)

They are counting the absentee ballots but only 117 votes separate HRC and BHO. (May the 117 is just for Bernarlillo county)

Turnout was more than three times what they expected.

There were a few problems but I think that the fact that some people waited three hours is an indication of support (for both - either?)

Seems like the state is of the same mind as I am - about 50/50 in my support - I hope this translates into 100% support for either.

I’m sure there are a few folks that suffer from the “Bradley effect” but those would be racists and let’s all hope the number is very low. I hate to think as a country we have not gotten past skin color. (well most of us)

I wonder how many people are just as effected by gender? I really hope that number is low too.

I hate to think the worst of anybody.

"he was greatly leading in the polls in California, only to be wiped out"

?????

He was down by nearly twenty points a a month or two before the primary and was not "wiped out" as you say - the delegate count will be very close.

That would belie the idea that he was wipe out (IMO).

The strength of the millions of absentee votes going for HRC would only indicate those voting absentee did so before BHO started coming up in the polls.

(that is if you can believe polls SC was off on average 16.6 points from all the pollsters)

The polls had them very close until just the night before the contest and that poll might have been wrong?

N.M. caucus too close to call \

New Mexico’s Democratic caucus remained unsettled early Wednesday morning as Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama were separated by just 117 votes with nearly 17,000 provisional ballots yet to be counted.

With 98 percent of precincts reporting, Clinton held 65,845 votes, or 42.97 percent, while Obama held 65,728 votes, or 45.89 percent.

State Democratic Party leaders said 16,871 provisional ballots were still to be counted Wednesday morning starting at 9 a.m.

*****

I should have said provisional ballots .

McCain, Obama Super Tuesday wins offer surprises\

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- A couple of surprises on Super Tuesday found Sen. Barack Obama sweeping up delegates in some heavily white states, and John McCain holding his own among evangelical Christians.

Late in the evening, Obama had seen wins in states such as Utah, Kansas and Colorado. McCain had earned almost one-third of the evangelical vote, according to exit polls.

Overall, Obama led among Democratic men, and Sen. Hillary Clinton led among white women, although Obama took some of her share among women, according to AP. Clinton won most Hispanics voters, taking in 65% of these voters in California, while Obama gained most black voters.

*****

Some exit data.

SuperTuesday:

Yawn...

Clinton Loaned Herself $5M In January\

Howard Wolfson, Hillary Clinton's communications director, confirms:

"Late last month Senator Clinton loaned her campaign $5 million.The loan illustrates Sen. Clinton’s commitment to this effort and to ensuring that our campaign has the resources it needs to compete and win across this nation. We have had one of our best fundraising efforts ever on the web today and our Super Tuesday victories will only help in bringing more support for her candidacy."

Also: Clinton is challenging her supporters to raise her 3 million in 3 days.

*****

Well if money was everything Romney and Ron Paul would be kickin’ some GOP butt.

This has to be a bit of a disappointment for HRC when BHO raised $32 million in January.

Capt,

Even more telling...Obama Campaign announced that they'd recieved over $6 million in small donations , just since the polls closed on Tuesday.

Much of it comes from people with little to spare...

Speaking of giving...The kind of support I witnessed in Augusta, GA this week is nothing short of , well...INSPIRING!

There's a certain fervor among ALL the Obama supporters. It is a belief in something bigger than themselves, something more important than anything they've seen, for most of us in our lifetimes...for some, since Jack or Bobby Kennedy.

It is what got a 60-something couple to drive from Raleigh, NC to walk the neighborhoods of Augusta, GA this week. It is what turned out people who are in their 50's and voted for the FIRST TIME EVER on Tuesday.

No time to do it up right, just yet, but I'll be highlighting Loretta, a 52-year old woman, living with Multiple Sclerosis who walked the hills of Southwestern Augusta, Ga with me for hours until basically collapsing.

I couldn't keep her down...even though she couldn't possibly make it up the steps, she'd walk up to a mobile home deck, reach up and rap on the door with her cane...and quickly convince whoever came out that it was "Time"..."Time to get your butt up to Trinity CME and VOTE!" When I left around 6pm to come home, she was still on the phones getting every last voter she could out to the polls.

It is such dedication, past all thoughts for her own health, her own comfort that is the difference...the difference between involvement and comittment.

If you haven't heard the 'old line...like a ham 'n eggs
breakfast...

The Chicken is involved...the PIG was COMMITTED!

Obama now has the luxury of time...face time...time to show up...look what just "showing up" did in Idaho!

Hillary will fail to inspire, young, old, or otherwise. She just can't. She may have honed her "Wonk" skills for the past 35+ years, but that will never be the same as truly creating a "movement".

Obama rising...and bringing the folk who lift him up along WITH him...what a ride!

Cinch your seatbelts TIGHT...time to BOOGITTY!

-T

btw, MSNBC now has the total delegate count:

OBAMA......................................................................838
Monica Lewinsky's ex-boyfriend's Wife..............834

Hajji,

Why have all of the pundits been playing it like HRC won?

We are still counting provisional ballots here in NM.

They say they have until the 15th so they are not in a rush.

Oh yeah,

Pork bellies Mmmmmmmmmmmm

Capt,

I've been balls-to-the-walls at work and/or sleeping since I got back from Augusta, so I can't comment on the MSM coverage. It is in the media's best intere$t$, of course, to keep as little distance between the two as possible so that they can keep up the "Slugfest" coverage, adding viewers and driving up revenue.

That way, they drain the campaign coffers of advertising dollars, increase viewership with banner headlines and dramatic music clips...and conversely, probably even help the campaigns get more donations which in turn, of course, are largely returned as ad buys to the media.

Not that I'm cynical about campaign advertising or MSM complicity or anything.

-T

Capt, the M$M is playing it like Hillary won because she is ahead by around 100 once you figure in the super delegates. Of course their half-assed reporting doesn't always make that clear.

Hajji,

"balls-to-the-walls at work and/or sleeping"

You are always working. (true)

And of cour$e - you are right a$ rain on the M$M and thier motive$.

"Of course their half-assed reporting doesn't always make that clear."

Yeah, but the meme seems to have infected all of the alternative media as well.

THAT sucks big time.

Looking at the dynamics - I think the HRC camp expected a knock out blow. They put all their chips into the 5th and will now only win if they can take Ohio AND Texas by resounding numbers.

I personally wish for a clear winner - let the people be heard and the votes counted. A clear winner will help not hurt IMHO.