It Ain't Patty Solis's Fault; Blame Hillary Clinton--or Mark Penn

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The fish rots from the head.

That's a not-so-polite way of saying that the person to blame whenever a campaign is not zipping along is the candidate, not his or her staff. Today, Patty Solis Doyle is the scapegoat for a Hillary Clinton campaign mired in a losing streak. On Sunday, she was dumped as HRC's campaign manager and replaced by Maggie Williams, who in 1990s served as chief of staff to First Lady Clinton.

Whether or not it was Solis' doing, the Clinton campaign is in the middle of a dangerous stretch. After splitting Super Tuesday with Barack Obama, the campaign is conceding a series of contests to Barack Obama (including two of the three February 12 primaries: Maryland and Washington, DC). The Clinton camp is allowing Obama to rack up the wins, while it prepares to put him down on March 4 in Ohio and Texas, two delegate-rich states. This reminds me of that familiar action movie device: let the enemy hordes take one position after another right before you spring a lethal trap on them. You know the scene. As the bad guys draw nearer, the hero-protagonist keeps saying, "Wait for it, wait for it." Those of lesser stout are in near-panic and want to pull the trigger too soon. "No, no," the all-wise, against-the-odds hero says. "Just wait for it." Then--Ka-boom!--the evil ones are dispatched.

Hillary as King Leonidas leading 300 Spartans at Thermopylae against the evil Obama-ites? Well, that may be stretching it. But this strategy must have some of her people chewing up their fingernails. My colleague Jonathan Stein dubs this plan "Rudy 2.0." As the Clinton clan waits, Obama is getting Big Mo on his side; he will truly have bragging and front-runner rights should he bag Virginia on Tuesday and sweep the Potomac Primaries. Between this clump and the Ohio/Texas shootout, there are only two other matches: Hawaii and Wisconsin on February 19. Both of those are good territory for Obama. (He grew up in Hawaii.)

Back to Solis. If she was the one who cooked up the wait-until-Ohio-and-Texas plan, HRC went along with it. Same with any strategic decisions that contributed to the Iowa loss, which got the ball rolling for the Barackians. Now it could well be that Solis has not managed the campaign well. There are 500 or so staffers to coordinate. She has to supervise a bevy of strategists, communicators, and planners. That's a tough job--especially when you're dealing with big egos.

Ever since Iowa, there's been grumbling from Clinton aides about the management team. But much of this complaining was directed at Mark Penn, the chief strategist. On Election Day afternoon in New Hampshire, a senior Clinton adviser told me that she was looking forward to what she assumed would be a loss, for it would cause a much-need shakeup in the campaign staff and force Penn out. When I spotted this aide celebrating Clinton's victory that night, I mentioned that the win probably had saved Penn's job. "I hope not," she snapped. "That would be the wrong lesson learned." More recently, another longtime Clinton aide said that she, too, would be delighted to see Penn depart. "He can't win Democratic primaries," she said. "And that's a drawback when you're in a Democratic primary."

A candidate not pleased with a campaign manager cannot freeze out the manager or lessen her or his authority without putting the campaign's entire management at risk. But a candidate can nudge a strategist aside. A Clinton insider tells me that Penn's influence has been waning and that these days he's more desk-bound--that is, confined to his office--than he has been during the previous months. Could it be that the real shakeup is not the Williams-for-Solis substitution but a decline in Penn's influence?

Still, I come back to my first point. A candidate's fault always lies not in his advisers but in himself. After John Kerry's 2004 defeat, there was much harrumphing about Bob Shrum, who has a string of high-profile losses on his resume. But if Kerry took bad advice from Shrum, he's the one to blame. Hillary Clinton chose Solis, made the decision to compete in Iowa (which some of her aides wanted to skip), and embraced Penn, a corporate consultant whose company aids and abets union-busting businesses, as her strategy guru. She got what she paid for. (Penn made over $4 million last year working for the Clinton campaign.) And now she's left with the need to stop Obama in two big states. Sure she could lose each--Remember the Alamo!--and still remain in the delegate hunt. But the race would be tougher for her; she would be left with only one more fallback position: Pennsylvania on April 22. And even King Leonidas--with the best strategic and management advice--would have a tough time defeating Luke Skywalker.

    Comments

  1. David,

    Shuffling the deck-chairs on the HMS Billary is simply a not-so-subtle "Mayday" to her supporters (monetary, celebrity AND/ OR superdelegates) that they'd better stoke the boiler double-time or they'll find themselves asea, vying for a seat in the leaky lifeboats drifting in the current, come convention time.

    ...and the sharks are already circling.

    -T

    Posted by: Hajji Author Profile Page | February 11, 2008 11:23 AM

  2. Ouch, my head hurts from DC's mixed movie metaphor. *warning: spoiler alert* Anyone who saw 300 should remember Leonidas and his men died holding the line. To complete the metaphor one would have to assume HRC is planning to sacrifice her own political career to hold back BHO enough for McCain to defeat him. Not a good thought.

    Posted by: eyes_open Author Profile Page | February 11, 2008 11:35 AM

  3. I think you're right but maybe missed one major item:

    "Obama is getting Big Mo on his side; he will truly have bragging and front-runner rights. . ."

    And now with the media coverage he has name recognition that rivals or is mentioned as much as the name Clinton. A few months back I read that some of HRC's advantage was the name.

    Nothing attracts a crowd like a crowd. Some people will jump on the candidate that is doing well - who doesn't like to pick a winner?

    Posted by: capt Author Profile Page | February 11, 2008 11:40 AM

  4. "on the candidate"

    ADD:

    On the candidates bandwagon - sounds odd without the bandwagon part.


    Posted by: capt Author Profile Page | February 11, 2008 11:59 AM

  5. "Obama is getting Big Mo on his side; he will truly have bragging and front-runner rights. . ."
    That line made me chuckle. It made me think "Elton John is campaigning for him?". :P

    Posted by: eyes_open Author Profile Page | February 11, 2008 12:06 PM

  6. Hillary on a losing streak, too low for zero (Elton John)

    I couldn't resist.

    Posted by: capt Author Profile Page | February 11, 2008 12:14 PM

  7. Obama narrowly leads McCain in AP poll
    WASHINGTON - Democrat Barack Obama has a narrow lead over John McCain in a potential presidential matchup, while Hillary Rodham Clinton is about even with the Republican front-runner, an Associated Press-Ipsos poll indicated Monday.

    Posted by: eyes_open Author Profile Page | February 11, 2008 1:47 PM

  8. A huge turn-out will blow the pollsters away.

    They can't factor the "out of the norm" numbers. I think they are getting better than was SC but . . .

    We have to get out the vote.

    Get out the word.

    Challenge the M$M and their war interests.

    Yes we can!

    Posted by: capt Author Profile Page | February 11, 2008 1:56 PM

  9. The Religious Right's Era Is Over


    […]

    Evangelicals — especially the new generation of pastors and young people — are deserting the Religious Right in droves. The evangelical social agenda is now much broader and deeper, engaging issues like poverty and economic justice, global warming, HIV/AIDS, sex trafficking, genocide in Darfur and the ethics of the war in Iraq. Catholics are returning to their social teaching; mainline Protestants are asserting their faith more aggressively; a new generation of young black and Latino pastors are putting the focus on social justice; a Jewish renewal movement and more moderate Islam are also growing; and a whole new denomination has emerged, which might be called the "spiritual but not religious."

    *****

    When the religious right is making a hard turn left you know the world is a changing.

    Posted by: capt Author Profile Page | February 11, 2008 2:16 PM

  10. Huckabee at Falwell's Church: Ten Commandments better than law


    *****

    Talk about being out of touch.

    Posted by: capt Author Profile Page | February 11, 2008 2:17 PM

  11. When the religious right is making a hard turn left you know the world is a changing.

    It called moving to the middle, now when you lefties make a hard right turn we can all sing peace on earth together!

    Posted by: LBH Author Profile Page | February 11, 2008 2:38 PM

  12. >Between this clump and the Ohio/Texas shootout, there are only two other matches: Hawaii and Washington on February 19.

    There's also Wisconsin on 2/19, which HRC is contesting. You should say something about that.

    Posted by: Jay Gold Author Profile Page | February 11, 2008 2:52 PM

  13. Anyone raising the idea that the party needs to "move to the middle" should immediately be escorted out of the building.


    […]

    As cognitive psychologist George Lakoff told me: "Democrats moving to the middle is a double disaster that alienates the party's progressive base while simultaneously sending a message to swing voters that the other side is where the good ideas are." It unconsciously locks in the notion that the other side's positions are worth moving toward, while your side's positions are the ones to move away from. Plus every time you move to the center, the right just moves further to the right.

    ******

    A trip down memory lane - and the same is true today.

    Posted by: capt Author Profile Page | February 11, 2008 3:53 PM

  14. Current unscientific poll results:
    Who will win the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination?
    Hillary
    39%
    Barack
    61%

    Posted by: eyes_open Author Profile Page | February 11, 2008 5:22 PM

  15. A trip down memory lane - and the same is true today.

    Is that why Howard Dean did so well?

    Or, how about Lamont vs Lieberman? Who moved to the middle and won that one?

    Posted by: LBH Author Profile Page | February 11, 2008 5:24 PM

  16. The progressive base is only a small percentage of the Dem party just as the neo-cons of the right.

    This is why McCain will win-he represents the majority of Americans that are in the middle - Independents, Reagan democrats and moderate republicans.

    Posted by: LBH Author Profile Page | February 11, 2008 5:27 PM

  17. The point is, if Hillary loses due to a bad strategy implemented by a bad strategist, then Hillary loses.

    Let's put Obama up against McCain. Obama is more moderate and doesn't have a hair-trigger temper.

    McCain is for more war, Obama is for less.

    McCain will piss off all the conservatives, Obama will work with them.

    Hillary will energize the conservative right to vote, Obama will bring out the vote from the center and the left.

    Posted by: Neil Author Profile Page | February 11, 2008 5:46 PM

  18. Obama is more moderate ~

    Obama was rated the most liberal senator in the senate.

    McCain is for more war, Obama is for less.~

    Obama wants to invade Pakistan, how is this less?

    McCain will piss off all the conservatives, Obama will work with them.~

    Let's look at the record~ Obama hasn't reached across party lines on any senate bill. McCain has reached out to dems on many bills, which is why conservatives are pissed at him.

    Hillary will energize the conservative right to vote, Obama will bring out the vote from the center and the left.~

    I agree on this note. Obama has rock star status right now but the general is a different ball game.

    I hope if Obama wins that he is true to his word and will work for a middle ground between parties. He hasn't done anything so far but just talk about it. On the other hand, McCain is proven to be good to his word and has proven to work with both parties.

    Posted by: LBH Author Profile Page | February 11, 2008 6:01 PM

  19. The democratic party is going to choose your winner , not the people. It's called super delegates and the super delgates say screw the people we will decide whats best for this country. All you minions need to do is give them your money , shut up and keep in line.

    Posted by: LBH Author Profile Page | February 11, 2008 6:26 PM

  20. College Junior Breakfasts With Chelsea Clinton
    21-Year-Old Wisconsin Super Delegate Gets Face Time With Former First Daughter


    HMMMM, maybe Shuster was onto something here!

    Posted by: LBH Author Profile Page | February 11, 2008 6:35 PM

  21. Obama: #1 Most Liberal Senator?


    According to the National Journal's nonpartisan ratings, released today, Barack Obama was the most liberal member of the Senate in 2007. This raises a number of issues for the senator from Illinois.

    First of all, we should point out that the numbers are ridiculous. According to the NJ press release, "Obama voted the liberal position on 65 of the 66 votes in which he participated, while Clinton voted the liberal position on 77 of 82 votes." So he took the liberal position less frequently than Clinton did, and less frequently than a number of senators. But because he was out campaigning, he only returned for big, divisive votes where the Democratic Party needed him. He only cast one vote against the liberal position, meaning he was usually content to skip votes where he would be voting against his party. As B.B. points out, "a senator who takes the 'liberal' position 95 times out of 100 is somehow less liberal than his colleague who takes the liberal position 48 times out of 50." In years past, when Obama voted as many times as a normal senator, he was the 10th and 16th most liberal senator. That is likely a truer representation of his politics. Does anyone really think Obama and Joe Biden are more liberal than Russ Feingold or Bernie Sanders (a socialist)?

    ****

    Simply not true. A one source declaration from the National Journal does not make the statement true.

    Who on earth would think that BHO is more liberal than a socialist.

    Although I know factual things have always been a sore point with you trolls but really, try something factual once in a great while - it will help start to build credibility - if you care about that kind of a thing.

    Posted by: capt Author Profile Page | February 11, 2008 6:36 PM

  22. I forgot the sharp-witted point I was going to make as I read my way down to here...

    Posted by: David B. Benson Author Profile Page | February 11, 2008 6:53 PM

  23. Captain,

    Unfortunately, history dictates that liberal Democrats lose and centrist Democrats win.

    It also dictates that conservative Republicans win and moderate Republicans lose. (Caveat - it means running as a conservative; not being one. See GWB.)

    Tom

    Posted by: Tomcantu Author Profile Page | February 11, 2008 6:56 PM

  24. Although I know factual things have always been a sore point with you trolls but really, try something factual once in a great while - it will help start to build credibility - if you care about that kind of a thing. ~~

    You miss my point entirely, but thats ok I'll try to hold your hand this time.

    Obama is a liberal, don't care if he's more liberal than a socialist like Fiengold. Obama is running to the middle as a moderate cuz he knows he will lose the general as a loony lefty. McCain on the other hand is a moderate and is running as a moderate.

    Now I like Obamas message and his leadership skills, but I don't quite believe him yet that he will work with both sides as a moderate. Show me where he's done this already so we can make an informed decision on the guy.

    Posted by: LBH Author Profile Page | February 11, 2008 7:14 PM

  25. Does anyone really think Obama and Joe Biden are more liberal than Russ Feingold or Bernie Sanders (a socialist)?~~

    If it walks and talks like a duck then it's a duck!

    Posted by: LBH Author Profile Page | February 11, 2008 7:18 PM

  26. Tom,

    If history dictated anything accurately every prediction would be exact, it is not.

    There is change and there is growth.

    You also have inexact definitions - Left, liberal, democrat, democratic, progressive, forward thinking - are not interchangeable.

    A more true (still not absolute) statement would be: IF history is an indicator then . . . . .

    History can serve as a predictor not a dictator.

    Furthermore, I don’t agree that the dynamics are as you have posted. Not real interested rehashing the history you reference, I have posted letting that be assumed as true and it is not. It is opinion based and limited by that perspective. (what is left or right to you may not be so for others)

    “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. “
    ~ Niels Bohr (1885 - 1962)

    Posted by: capt Author Profile Page | February 11, 2008 7:19 PM

  27. From MoJo:

    And PS — This line from the NJ press release is awesome: "Republican presidential candidate John McCain did not participate in enough roll calls to receive a composite score." (NJ most liberal senator)

    *****

    So, that would make Insane McCain a non-senator - is a non-composite score mean he is more conservative or less conservative?

    I mean really.

    If you bothered to read the thread where this was discussed before you wouldn't post repeated blather.

    Go back and read the thread that was about that issue.


    Posted by: capt Author Profile Page | February 11, 2008 7:25 PM

  28. Hmmm,

    my prediction is that the super delegats will decide Hillary queen and you trolls will be her flying monkeys waiting marching orders.

    Posted by: LBH Author Profile Page | February 11, 2008 7:28 PM

  29. (NJ most liberal senator)

    Who cares! Are you trying to argue that Obama isn't liberal, cuz I'm not.

    Posted by: LBH Author Profile Page | February 11, 2008 7:31 PM

  30. Heil Hitlery!

    Posted by: LBH Author Profile Page | February 11, 2008 7:38 PM

  31. LBH just blathers on, just MSU (Making Stuff Up).

    Posted by: David B. Benson Author Profile Page | February 11, 2008 7:48 PM

  32. First Wal Mart now Fox News~ OMG!


    Clinton said that her staff had sent her "some independent study" "which seemed to suggest that" "in terms of the fairness of the coverage," Fox News Channel has treated her campaign more fairly than MSNBC.

    "I really am troubeld by this pattern of behavior and comments that you hear" on MSNBC, said Clinton.

    Posted by: LBH Author Profile Page | February 11, 2008 7:56 PM

  33. McCain’s Double Talk Express: A Day at the Beach


    John McCain faulted the Bush Administration in August of 2006 for not being honest with the American people in their rhetoric leading up to the War in Iraq, but who else led the American people to think that the occupation of Iraq would “be some kind of day at the beach?“

    Video at the link.

    Just like McCain said Bush misled the American people.

    Hard sell anybody on the idea that more war is the right thing to do but the terrorism, 9/11 BS has already started. Like it has taken 6 years to bring anybody to trial (KSM)? That it is some kind of a coincidence that the WH has admitted to water-boarding and the secret partition inside Gitmo?

    This is the Rovian calculation war, 9/11 and lies are too old to replay and get away with it.

    The people are better informed and tired of the lies, BS and crud they we have been fed for the last two terms.

    Posted by: capt Author Profile Page | February 11, 2008 11:10 PM

  34. Wow, I put "I really am troubeld by this pattern of behavior and comments that you hear" into Google and got a grand total of ONE result here. This seems like the kind of quote that would be all over the net. Mediabistro seems to have no video of her saying this posted. How credible is this site?

    Posted by: eyes_open Author Profile Page | February 11, 2008 11:32 PM

  35. Never cut and paste a misspell?

    I really am troubeld(sp) by this pattern of behavior and comments that you hear

    Mediabistro is a place I have read some stuff that was bona fide.

    With the spelling correction you will find the quote elsewhere as well.

    FWIW

    Posted by: capt Author Profile Page | February 12, 2008 12:01 AM

  36. I'm certain if HRC thinks FOX was fair she wouldn't be comparing them to MSNBC that implied she was whoring /pimping out her daughter.

    That could only be seen as a compliment to FOX by those (willingly) reading out of context.

    IMO

    Posted by: capt Author Profile Page | February 12, 2008 12:08 AM

  37. Ok, I feel dumb for not catcthing that. I guess that thing about how you can still read things with the letteres jumbled as long as the first and last letters are in place is too true. Still, I find it strange I didn't get any partial search matches.

    Anyway I think you are right. This could be interpreted as a compliment to FOX but it sounds more like saying "sadly MSNBC is even lower than FOX".

    Posted by: eyes_open Author Profile Page | February 12, 2008 1:22 AM

  38. I should never say never, THAT is a bit absolute.

    *smile*

    Posted by: capt Author Profile Page | February 12, 2008 8:56 AM

  39. Washington GOP Caucus: Why Recount the Votes?


    There's a developing thread of more than curious reports on various blogs that Washington state's GOP party chairman has been less than inclined to finish counting the votes in the state's presidential caucus on Saturday.

    *****

    Does “stop counting the votes” sound eerily familiar?

    I don’t support McCain nor Huckabee and am not GOP but shouldn’t every candidate want the votes counted?

    Here in NM - the moment there was any question the NM Dem’s recounted everything even though it was clear BHO and HRC will split the delegates from here the winner will gain an advantage of one delegate.

    Posted by: capt Author Profile Page | February 12, 2008 9:22 AM

  40. Senate OKs immunity for telecoms


    By PAMELA HESS
    ASSOCIATED PRESS WRITER

    WASHINGTON -- The Senate voted Tuesday to shield from lawsuits telecommunications companies that helped the government eavesdrop on their customers without court permission after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.


    *****

    Well then, now that's out of the way. . .

    Add this to the reasons to vote the bums out - all incumbents - both parties.

    Posted by: capt Author Profile Page | February 12, 2008 12:17 PM

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