John Edwards is moaning that Hillary Clinton isn't spending much time in South Carolina. Why should she? Clinton showed in New Hampshire that she can take a punch (Iowa) and keep on going. She may not win South Carolina on Saturday, but she doesn't need the Palmetto State as much as Barack Obama and John Edwards do. So she's already on to Supersaturated Tuesday, campaigning this week in California, New Mexico, and New Jersey.
This is giving her a leg up on Obama. He's pinned down in South Carolina, hoping to round up the votes many folks already presume he has (African American votes). If he cannot clobber Clinton there, he will certainly have a tough time going into the February 5 states.
His campaign announced on Wednesday that it will begin airing ads in various 2/5 states. The ads are...fine: positive spots that highlight his personal tale, his policies (end the war, end tax breaks for outsourcing corporations, begin universal health care), and his call for change. They do not redefine political advertising the way Obama is trying to redefine politics. And it's fair to wonder if they will be enough to best Clinton, who in Nevada and New Hampshire demonstrated an ability to win over traditional Democrats. Most of the big-state Democratic primaries on February 5 are closed to independent voters--but not California--and that means the traditional Dems will count the most.
Thus, while Clinton skips South Carolina, leaving the Big Dawg (a.k.a. Mr. Clinton) to stump the Palmetto State for her (and continue the mudwrestle with Obama), and while she starts her February 5 campaigning, Obama is working for a win in South Carolina that the Clintonites are already dismissing. (After all, shouldn't he triumph in a state where half the voters are African Americans?) At the same time, he is depending on short spots to convey his large message to millions of voters elsewhere. It's not the best position to be in.
Obama needs a definitional moment. That doesn't mean he should cry on the campaign trail. (And the politerati will debate for years whether that did the trick for Clinton in New Hampshire.) But he has to cut through the clutter--the sniping, the jockeying, the sideshow stories--in a bold manner that brings it all home for those 2/5 voters who might only now be thinking seriously about whom to choose. Now if I knew how to engineer such a move, I'd be rich. This ain't easy. But reaching so many people at once, as I've said before, is a mighty challenge. Winning South Carolina won't be enough.
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Comments
Seantor Obama's dilemma is that this good man must respond to the gutteral politics of the Clinton family. In doing so, he becomes one of them.
Alas, there is no one as good at gutteral politics as the Clinton family and its truly extraordinary machine.
Posted by: Tomcantu
| January 23, 2008 9:30 PM
LBH,
Read your "prozac-free" comment :~)! I posted this at The Nation's "Bankruptcy" thread today:
Folks, an important announcement.....I, HAPPY, Contrarian Extraordinaire, made my first BUY in the stock market in about two weeks! Amidst the doom & gloom, is when future profits are sown!
Posted by HAPPY 01/23/2008 @ 4:07pm
To "greenacre", who used to be "Don" at the old corn blog, you the "DDD" that rings my bell? If yes, cool!
Posted by: HAPPY
| January 23, 2008 9:55 PM
I do read David here, just not always on a daily basis.....but I almost always skip the comments section.
That said, being first to comment on "Bickering", was.....hard to resist, LOL! Who knows? If the conversation stays cordial and adult-like, and time permits....
Posted by: HAPPY
| January 23, 2008 9:59 PM
Corn, What about the Republic nominee? Can Romney stage a comeback, how much longer will Huckleberry last?
Posted by: Neil
| January 23, 2008 10:18 PM
Hillary Clinton is about as charming and personable as a wet cupie doll. Her negatives are higher than any presidential candidate in history, yet the MSM refuse to see through the "fairy tale" that she truly is. Obama may be young, but he has a lot of voters excited about politics, is a very charismatic candidate and appeals to a varied cross section of voters. Much more so than Hillary. Just reflect back on the praise heaped on him as the keynote speaker at the Democrat Convention in 2004. Hillary does not need to be in South Carolina because the real candidate, Bill, is there for her. Obama fights his own battles. I have more respect and admiration for Obama than Bill and Hillary combined. This is coming from a conservative. I do not think either will win in 2008, but Obama, in my opinion, has the better shot.
Posted by: tytandanmar
| January 23, 2008 11:01 PM
Why don't some of the senators and governors who have come out for Obama stick up for him? They could debunk the Clinton attacks and leave Obama to be Mr. Positive, which he is.
Posted by: Unitarian Patriot
| January 23, 2008 11:36 PM
It is the same mentality as "don't mess with Texas." Don't mess with the Clinton Machine/DNC/Terry McAuliffe or there will be hell to pay.
Back to Obama. Who among you cannot say you can't help but like the guy? Can you say the same for Hillary? I wish there was someone on the Republican side like him or even better than him. The one closest is Romney but he is nothing more than a conservative Al Gore, Ron Paul has some good ideas but just can't overcome that Kucinich feel. Sounds good but are you serious?
Posted by: tytandanmar
| January 24, 2008 12:09 AM
David,
Why don't you admit what Chris Matthews admitted but then pleaded forgiveness for saying. Hillary is only where she is because of Bill. If Bill was not in S.C. Hillary would be there. That is, of course, assuming that she would even be a senator from New York, of all places, if it were not for Bill. Or, you really want to get right down to it, would she have been first lady? Apparently she wasn't but in name only. Jennifer Flowers, Monica Lewinsky, Paula Jones et al. Bimbos to Hillary, first Ladies to Bill.
Posted by: tytandanmar
| January 24, 2008 12:25 AM
There is nothing wrong with Obama diplomatically speaking up for himself -- it shows self esteem and strength of charater -- no swift boating for me. I wish media would interview Michelle more so people can see how a spouse is supposed to act!
Posted by: bacaangel
| January 24, 2008 7:56 AM
Local news reports HRC back in the state today...
Amazingly, the Greenville News editorial page (long both my local voice AND nemesis) came dagerously close to an Obama endorsement today.
______________
"...In this race to capture to the Democratic Party's nomination, Obama makes the most compelling case for his nomination when he describes the differences between himself and Sen. Clinton. She is more comfortable with the "Washington lobby culture," he told our editorial board, and as seen in the failed health-care campaign in 1993, she is comfortable operating behind closed doors and trying to demonize her opponents.
Obama's approach to governing would be based on openness, inclusiveness and transparency. That approach would serve our country well..."
Posted by: Hajji
| January 24, 2008 8:35 AM
Unitarian,
Some are. Was with Tom Daschle, in to lead the Obama "Truth Squad" at the MLK commemoration in Anderson Monday night.
HRC's divisive tactics are driving plenty of local and state politicos into the Obama camp.
Haven't had time to look at the national scene lately,
Voter by voter, block by block, precinct by princint, and county by county is how Obama's gonna win the SC Demo Nomination....
...it seems to be working, too, but so it did in NH...until the votes were "counted".
Posted by: Hajji
| January 24, 2008 8:41 AM
Sorry,
BLACKBOXVOTING.ORG
Make sure your vote is counted!
-T
Posted by: Hajji
| January 24, 2008 8:44 AM
"In democracy it's your vote that counts; In feudalism it's your count that votes."
~ Mogens Jallberg
Posted by: capt
| January 24, 2008 8:51 AM
Edwards makes gains amid shifting voter preferences
Maybe the two way bickering helps the third wheel?
Posted by: capt
| January 24, 2008 11:17 AM
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