After Iowa, There's Only One Question for Hillary

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At Milly's Tavern in Manchester, New Hampshire--where Barack Obama campaign workers had assembled to watch the Iowa caucus results on Thursday night--there was only one question on the mind of the few reporters in the room: what is Hillary Clinton to do now?

By trouncing Clinton by 8 points, Obama shifted the political landscape. If he had won by merely a few points and Clinton and John Edwards had finished close, the race in New Hampshire probably would have been just a continuation of the Iowa contest, with the candidates sticking to their basic gameplans and messages. Finishing (as of this writing) in third place and losing by a significant amount, Clinton and her strategists cannot look at New Hampshire and say, "We just have to do what we've been doing better and hope it will play better before a different audience of Democrats and independents." No, you lose by 8 points, you have to make some changes.

But what changes?

Hillary Clinton has four days to try something else--and two of those days are the weekend. And for it to work, it will have to be big and be bold, so that New Hampshire voters truly notice. One obvious option: go nuclear on Obama. Clinton could, for instance, attempt to frighten--really frighten--voters about his lack of experience.

But when Clinton has attacked Obama in the past, it hasn't done her much good. She fell in the polls after tearing into him. As one Clinton adviser told me a few weeks ago, Clinton plays better as victim than attacker. What else could she do? Let Bill loose? He was ably deployed in Iowa, and that didn't do the trick. Are there other surrogates she could call on who could have an impact in New Hampshire?

Moreover, any dramatic move she might make at this point has the potential of casting her as desperate. Voters, like dogs, can smell fear. She's in a tough fix.

Despite the beer that was flowing at Milly's, none of us reporters cooked up any good ideas for HRC. She's on her own. Iowa was one damn big siren-screaming warning for the Clintonites. Young voters, independents, women and others turned out for Obama, endorsing his message of change and embracing him as the messenger. During his eloquent victory speech, Obama seemed to be riding a wave of history. (Talk about peaking at the right moment.)

In the heat of the moment--especially at Milly's--it's easy to overemphasize Iowa and even, perhaps, New Hampshire. There are other contests after the Granite State, and Clinton has plenty of money to keep her campaign fueled all the way to Super Duper Tuesday on February 5. She could opt to hang tight and hope to best Obama in later rounds. But Obama's triumph in Iowa does suggest that what Clinton has been doing ain't working. To win, she, too, might have to embrace change.

McCAIN'S 1000-YEAR WAR. At a town hall meeting in New Hampshire on Thursday night, John McCain told me that he wouldn't mind if U.S. troops stay in Iraq for a "thousand" years, as long as American casualties are declining. Read my report on this here.

    Comments

  1. Yes. Change Hillary, but after being in the spotlight for so long, it is going to be tough. First thing, however, she should do the obvious: stop talking about how experienced she is, because one, it don't mean jack, and two, she isn't that experienced.
    Next, stop talking about implementing your husband's policies because his policies didn't exactly part the Red Sea. Just say, I will leave Iraq, my Iraq vote was wrong, my loyalty to big business is wrong, etc. Of course, she has no clue, and will not say this. She will probably try to track down all the people who got high with Barack (especially if some of them are dead)

    Most of all, however, she has to convince John Edwards not to ditch the race, because if it is Hillary against Barack, that is like Michael Jordan being guarded by Danny Ainge - no contest. Edwards can steal Obama's votes; it is her only hope. She now has to win New Hampshire.

    Posted by: bumpyjonas Author Profile Page | January 4, 2008 1:04 AM

  2. In the latest SC Manson/Nixon poll, Hillary's still on top, albeit by a slimming margin. Ewards/Obama? Obama/Edwards?

    Dreaming...

    -T

    Posted by: Hajji Author Profile Page | January 4, 2008 9:27 AM

  3. Nothing beats seeing Ron Paul WAX Rudy!

    That alone is worth all of the blather.

    I have always thought HRC has been overblown by the MSM and the GOP.

    Iowa is just one small state and I hope the race is on! What we all have to do now is demand more progressive positions from our candidates - we need to hear from them on many issues they have not addressed clearly.

    I take pause when I remember that Obama's senatorial mentor was Joe Lieberman - and - all of Obama's talk about unifying makes me think of running to the center on issues so far out on the right that no balance can be struck by such a move.

    For me, I can be sure that the next president will not do everything the way I think he or she should and will likely rise my ire in more ways than one.

    As good as all the candidates are they all have their negatives. The biggest negative from the GOP is fixing elections and dirty tricks. We should be ready for anything.

    Posted by: capt Author Profile Page | January 4, 2008 1:23 PM

  4. What? John Edwards is not perfect?

    :-)

    Posted by: David B. Benson Author Profile Page | January 4, 2008 2:21 PM


  5. Obama's possible victory concerns me.

    After a term of Nixon we nominated McGovern - in a movement that saw the replacement of the old school by the new school - and McGovern was the symbol of what we wanted. He was creamed.

    After Nixon/Ford we got Jimmy Carter who would never lie to us. He thought he knew everything too.

    After GHWBush we got Clinton - who knew how to listen and persuade - but had a very tough first year - he needed Gore to pass his budget IN A DEMOCRATIC MAJORITY CONGRESS and then lost THAT majority. In rejecting Clinton, Biden, Dodds, even Edwards and Richardson we have selected the least known, least experienced guy - a blank surface whom we can project ourselves onto - since he is long on ideals and very short on experience - even in Real Life he is the Arugula candidate - a privileged academic - not someone I could relate to. We dont care about that, we just want someone to be the receptacle for our similarly vague hopes and ideals - and this unknown good looking young newcomer fits the bill. In business the unknown applicant from outside that we dont know has an advantage over the inhouse applicant - we dont know the new guy and we can put faith in him to bring something new and refreshing. Rarely ends up that way, because we are just looking at the new guy as if he were a reflection of what we want that seems so impossible in the people we are familiar with.

    I see another Jimmy Carter, a loss of the Legislature in 2010 to the R's and our dreams deferred again! because of starry-eyed immaturity in voting for dreams instead of reality.

    There are no "new" politics. I am glad some R;s voted for D's including Obama and most were legitimate, given the class of clowns on the R side = but - if I were dead set against the D's succeeding I would have caucused for Obama too.

    The Rush Republicans are not going to be brought together with the Dems or even the moderates no matter how well spoken Obama is or how much he really thinks he can do about it. A leader can facilitate unity but cannot create it out of nothing.

    I fear in Obama we will get someone with a lot of pretty talk who thinks he does not have to listen to anyone and who Congress, even the Dems, will put through the wringer.

    Posted by: rmholt Author Profile Page | January 4, 2008 6:20 PM

  6. I think we are in for a rough ride no matter who wins the nomination. The GOP has some very dastardly plans in place. Think media consolidation, limited internet, ongoing wiretaps and reading of emails, US attorneys that were loyal enough to not get fired, the WH refusing congressional oversight, ignoring subpoenas, etc. .

    Add the fact that politically the landscape is looking very bleak for the GOPhers and their neocons.

    The criminal enterprise didn’t steal all of the power just to give it away in a free and fair election, not on this planet - no way.

    We still have the feckless wonder and his uber-jerk running the country as we all sit one terror attack (read: false flag) or some fake pandemic from martial law. What crazy insane thing has the current WH NOT done yet?

    We could all be in for a very rough ride.

    Posted by: capt Author Profile Page | January 4, 2008 6:59 PM

  7. rmholt --- Patience. I suspect that Rodham will be the nominee...

    Posted by: David B. Benson Author Profile Page | January 4, 2008 7:01 PM

  8. Hi David,

    I'm a fan of your blog. I just wanted to say that for me, a 24 year old, black female with 2 college degree the solution for Clinton is very simple. Get rid of Bill.

    I like Bill Clinotn, I may even love him. But when I see her on tv and I see Bill six inches away I teleport back into the 1990's. If she wants the youth vote she's got to stand on her own two feet and speak openly and honestly about what she believes.

    I was struck by the contrast between her and Obama's speech. She kept saying she was the right "candidate" and wanted to lead. Obama talks about America and how we should care more about each other and about the world. This is the basis of the democratic platform caring for each other means caring about whether other Americans have health care, are in a war zone, are poor and are denied rights. He translates this in his message of hope it embodies what the party should be.

    If Hilary wants the youth vote: talk to us, don't campaign to us. And put bill in the audience looking up at you and beaming. Because young people (women) have been told that they can do anything. So why does she need her husband to campaign? It makes her look weaker to me. HRC, may just be a great candidate, but Obama would be a great president. He's kind of winking at us saying just stick with me through the election and I'll show you the way. So he doesn't have to be a perfect candidate.

    Posted by: Beve Author Profile Page | January 4, 2008 9:56 PM

  9. Hi David,

    I'm a fan of your blog. I just wanted to say that for me, a 24 year old, black female with 2 college degree the solution for Clinton is very simple. Get rid of Bill.

    I like Bill Clinotn, I may even love him. But when I see her on tv and I see Bill six inches away I teleport back into the 1990's. If she wants the youth vote she's got to stand on her own two feet and speak openly and honestly about what she believes.

    I was struck by the contrast between her and Obama's speech. She kept saying she was the right "candidate" and wanted to lead. Obama talks about America and how we should care more about each other and about the world. This is the basis of the democratic platform caring for each other means caring about whether other Americans have health care, are in a war zone, are poor and are denied rights. He translates this in his message of hope it embodies what the party should be.

    If Hilary wants the youth vote: talk to us, don't campaign to us. And put bill in the audience looking up at you and beaming. Because young people (women) have been told that they can do anything. So why does she need her husband to campaign? It makes her look weaker to me. HRC, may just be a great candidate, but Obama would be a great president. He's kind of winking at us saying just stick with me through the election and I'll show you the way. So he doesn't have to be a perfect candidate.

    Posted by: Beve Author Profile Page | January 4, 2008 9:56 PM

  10. "I have always thought HRC has been overblown."

    I remember you saying that, Capt - you called that one right!

    The polls weren't completely off-base in the end, though - Iowa surveys had been showing a Clinton decline, Edwards making gains and Obama on top - but they appear to have underestimated how many new voters Obama could bring in.

    Does anyone think Edwards could be Vice President under Obama? After his excellent campaign, it would be a shame to see him out of office and out of the race. I think he would complement Obama quite well on a joint ticket...

    Or is an Obama/Edwards ticket wishful thinking on my part too?

    Posted by: AlexHiggins Author Profile Page | January 5, 2008 5:33 AM

  11. "I remember you saying that, Capt - you called that one right!"

    The stopped clock rule -or lucky guess.

    I am as lost as a babe in the woods with this election.

    Obama says he will get our troops out of Iraq - THAT is good news. Maybe he can bring HRC around.

    Posted by: capt Author Profile Page | January 5, 2008 12:44 PM

  12. Yup. A bunch of wishful thinkers here...

    Posted by: David B. Benson Author Profile Page | January 5, 2008 5:20 PM

  13. Better thinkers than stinkers - I always say.


    HA!

    Posted by: capt Author Profile Page | January 5, 2008 9:24 PM

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