Don't be fooled by the headline, for only a fool would make real predictions about the coming caucuses and primaries. I'm heading out of town (and off-line) for a week on a trip that was booked long before Iowa decided to ruin the holiday season by scheduling its caucuses for January 3 (and New Hampshire compounded the inconvenience by setting its primary for January 8). But before I grab the tanning butter and skedaddle, I thought I'd offer one possible headline:
Obama Has Won Iowa
Note the verb tense. This is not a prediction but a statement of fact. What I mean is that Obama has already done in Iowa what he needed to do: show he's competitive with Hillary Clinton. Certainly, if on January 3 he can actually attract more votes there than Clinton or John Edwards, he will truly be in a strong position. But even if he loses in a close race to Clinton by a few points, he will be firmly in the hunt. By drawing close to her--and surpassing her in the polls--in Iowa, Obama has demonstrated he can get within reach of winning.
Earlier this year, Obama was stuck in poll after poll far behind Clinton. That led to talk that he better win in Iowa...or else. Now that "or else" is gone. If he is not blown away by her in the final results, he will be able to carry on. Both Obama and Clinton have plenty of money. And campaigns tend to peter out only when the well gets dry. So Clinton and Obama will continue on to New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina, and Super Duper Tuesday, a.k.a February 5, when 20-plus states will have primaries or caucuses.
The race could turn into a real slugfest. (Think of one of those Rocky movies.) Usually in politics, as in much of life, when chips fall, they fall in the same direction. There are prevailing winds, after all. But is it possible for the chips to split. If that comes to pass in this contest, the Democrats will have a delegate-counting race. And if it's close enough, the so-called super-delegates--party officials awarded delegateship--could end up playing a decisive role in the nomination.
Yes, all this horse-race what-iffing is a bit fanciful. John Edwards still has a shot in Iowa. And who knows what might happen to Joe Biden if he vaults into fourth place in the Hawkeye State? But let's congratulate Obama for having already succeeded in Iowa. He can take the rest of the week off.
![[RSS]](http://67.192.49.194/templates/images/rss_icon.gif){kind=icon}
Comments
DC,
"John Edwards still has a shot in Iowa."
And still, Obama has won. I agree. He has done what he needed to do not the least of which was draw out some of the darker character from HRC and her camp.
It will be interesting to see what happens.
Bon voyage!
Posted by: capt
| December 21, 2007 2:14 PM
Yeah, Obama has won like a sports team who's goal is to make it to the playoffs. However, in the end what matters is who wins the championship.
I hope a good showing in Iowa doesn't go to his head thinking it will carry him to victory. We don't need another stop-putting-forth-an-effort-when-the-time-is-most-important-like-Kerry moment.
Posted by: eyes_open
| December 21, 2007 3:34 PM
I hate sports analogies in politics. They cause poor logic on the voters part. This is not a "team" that has made it to the "playoffs". Votes need to be individual, considered and selfish. Bundling your vote just so you can say your team won makes for hollow and meaningless "victories". If everyone votes what they really believe, only then will we get true democracy. The idea that someone "wastes" their vote if they vote for the looser is to miss the point entirely. Vote with your mind, not your bumpersticker.
Posted by: JackD
| December 22, 2007 12:58 PM
An eye opening article on Bill Richardson. As a resident of NM the article reminded me of the many nuclear and millitary industries here.
Is Bill Richardson Radioactive?
Posted by: capt
| December 22, 2007 1:47 PM
They are all, all of them, honorable men.
Sorry Rodham, but that is a paraphrase taken from Shakespeare's Mark Anthony upon the occasion of Julius Caesar's funeral oration. But it applies to you as well in the form: Et tu, Brute, Julius Caesar's last words...
Posted by: David B. Benson
| December 22, 2007 5:41 PM
Craig...
Have a safe and happy trip. Merry Christmas and a Joyous Happy New Year as well.
God Bless.
Posted by: anon-paranoid
| December 23, 2007 12:52 PM
David...
My apologies, the above comment my fingers were faster than my thoughts.
You have a safe and happy trip. Merry Christmas and a Joyous Happy New Year as well.
God Bless.
Posted by: anon-paranoid
| December 23, 2007 12:55 PM
Merry Chistmas to all.
Posted by: David B. Benson
| December 24, 2007 5:01 PM
MerryHappy ChristmasHanukkahKwanzaa
to all!
Posted by: capt
| December 24, 2007 5:25 PM
What Y'all said...backatchya!
-T
Posted by: Hajji
| December 25, 2007 8:14 AM
Quick question:
Why doesn't the MSM call Mitt by his name? If Mitt were a democrat the MSM would ALWAYS call him "Willard" Mitt Romney.
We should do that for them.
Posted by: capt
| December 26, 2007 7:39 AM
My position on this issue is precisely the opposite. Please see www.cliffpotter.newsvine.com. Any loss by Obama means the race is over. Period.
Posted by: Cliff Potter
| December 28, 2007 4:20 AM
Here in Iowa we feel a sense of destiny. Barack Obama is on the move. Hillary has deep connections with the Democratic machinery, and so she may do very well, but Barack is a man of the people. This is his time.
Because of the nature of the Iowa caucuses, John Edwards will surprise everyone. What will happen is, when Chris Dodd or Joe Biden or other groups are not viable - don't have 15% of the votes at a caucus - they will have to pick a second candidate and many of those folks will choose JRE.
But in November, I believe in Barack Obama. This is our time.
Posted by: Tony Loyd
| December 30, 2007 8:24 AM
"John Edwards will surprise everyone."
I hope so.
Posted by: capt
| December 30, 2007 8:35 AM
Post A Comment