Is the AMT Time-bomb Ticking for GOPers in 2008?

| | Comments (12)

Washington Post reporter Jeffrey Birnbaum, a perceptive tracker of lobbyists, had a savvy commentary on Marketplace, the public radio show, a few days ago. In discussing the ever-creeping alternative minimum tax--which Representative Charlie Rangel, the Democratic chairman of the House Ways and Means committee, alternative minimum taxwants to take care of--Birnbaum noted:

No one says so out loud but Republicans are not as eager to fix the alternative minimum tax as Democrats are. A nice bit of irony, don't you think?

Why are tax-cuts-lovin' GOPers not inclined to deal with the AMT, which each year hits millions more of middle- and upper-middle-income taxpayers? Well, guess what? It's politics. Birnbaum explains:

The people who'd be hit hardest, it turns out, live in blue states. California, for instance, would have 1.7 million more AMT payers this year. New York would have a million more. New Jersey would have 750,000 more and Massachusetts would have 500,000....Red states don't tend have as many people looking at an AMT tax increase as blue states do.

Can you believe that Republicans would not act against this ever-expanding tax because it mostly affects people in Democratic areas? Shocking, I know.

But Birnbaum's commentary made me wonder if the Dems could get the last laugh on this front, as expensive as it might be. I looked up the geographic impact of the AMT for 2005 (the last year I found figures for). Here are the top seven AMT-struck states and the percentage of tax returns subject to the AMT.

1. New Jersey 6.82 percent
2 New York 6.0 percent
3. Connecticut 5.9 percent
4. Washington, DC 5.19 percent
5. Maryland 5.02 percent
6. California 4.86 percent
7. Massachusetts 4.74 percent

These states are all well above the 3.01 percent average. And, yes, they are all blue states. But what state is next on the list? Virginia--with 3.49 percent. And Virginia, once proudly red, is heading toward purple these days. George W. Bush beat John Kerry by a healthy 8-point spread in 2004, but since then Virginia lost a Republican senator (George "Macaca" Allen), and former Governor Mark Warner, a Democrat, is poised to capture the seat of retiring Republican Senator John Warner next year. (Mark Warner looks so strong that Representative Tom Davis, a Republican, chickened out of the race.) With Mark Warner topping the statewide list of candidates in 2008, Virginia could be within reach of the Democratic nominee (whomever that might be).

No doubt, it would be close. In 2006, James Webb beat Allen by a mere 7000 votes--less than 1 percent. But that means a small number of Virginians mugged by the AMT (and, consequently, pissed off by the AMT) could make a big difference. That is, if the AMT is not truly dealt with by April 15 and the Democratic nominee hammers GOPers for blocking a fix. (Remember the percentages listed above are going to be bigger for 2007.)

Assuming the rest of the electoral map doesn't change from 2004, capturing Virginia's 13 electoral votes would not put a Democrat over the top in 2008. But there's more: Ohio is No. 12 on the AMT list. In 2004, Bush claimed the state with a 118,000 vote lead, about 2 percent. Since then, the state Republican Party has imploded, due to various corruption scandals that have thrown GOPers out of office and, in some cases, into jail. It's not too hard to imagine a damn tight race there in 2008. If a couple of thousand angry AMT victims in Ohio decide to vote D instead of R, that could help the Democrat bag the election-tipping Buckeye State.

Sure, there'll be a lot of other factors that determine what happens in Ohio and Virginia. But the so-called ticking time-bomb of the AMT could end up detonating beneath the Republicans.

    Comments

  1. Good post!

    It doesn't take much to predict everything blowing up in the republicans faces - the only real question is . . . .

    Will the D's take advantage on the issue.

    Maybe it depends on what Bush says?

    Thanks

    Posted by: capt Author Profile Page | November 13, 2007 9:14 AM

  2. Repugnant masquerading as "Liberitarian" aka Neil Boortz like to use the spectre of the ATM to promote (scare people toward) their "Fair Tax" plan.

    I haven't done a whole lot of research into how such a plan can be used to fund the "necessities" of government, but it seems not a bad plan on the surface.

    Obviously "the basic necessities" of life (food, clothing, housing, healthcare, educational fees and supplies and BEER) should not be taxed, but then should the gasoline one uses to get to work (a necessity, in my opinion) not also be exempt?

    I'm hoping someone can better explain this "Fair Tax" plan to me. I've tried to listen to Boortz, but he turns me off with his consistently abrasive treatment of callers and guests. I guess he just has to follow the formula of Limpballs, SHaun hannITY and the rest if he's gonna garner listeners.

    -T

    Posted by: Hajji Author Profile Page | November 13, 2007 10:48 AM

  3. "Will the D's take advantage on the issue"
    You are funny, Capt! When have the Dems ever taken advantage of an issue that could massively sway the public in their favor? If they just spoke out to the public with the truth about matters and voted accordingly they could lock in support for the next generation. They are like the automakers who won't sacrifice a little profit now even if the investment would bring them greater profits in the future. The Dems are more concerned with immediate reelection so they get too scared to ever rock the boat even if it could benefit the party and country later.

    Posted by: eyes_open Author Profile Page | November 13, 2007 10:59 AM

  4. "Some Say" the AMT is a ticking time-bomb...

    The thing about analysis of politics and that it trivializes the underlying issue, fair taxation. If you wrote a column that talked about the Dem's chances of getting this self-funded tax bill through, then the politics would relate more directly to the policy.

    Posted by: Neil Author Profile Page | November 13, 2007 1:21 PM

  5. --------------------
    Executive Excess on Capitol Hill
    http://www.thenation.com/doc/20071126/cray_hayes

    All this back and forth would be more understandable if the bill itself were controversial, but on the merits and on the politics, it's a no-brainer. On Wednesday the Washington Post did an excellent job of unraveling why such a red-meat issue for Democrats has lost steam in the Senate, focusing especially on Schumer, the Senate Democrats' chief fundraiser, who, the Post reported, switched his position not long after James Simons, a hedge fund manager who earned $1.7 billion last year (you read that right), donated $28,500 to the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee, which Schumer chairs.

    And of course the New York senator also represents Wall Street, which these days is chock-full of fiscal conservatives and cultural liberals who are leaning more Democratic than Republican. Hedge funds and investment firms, the Post reports, more than doubled their giving from 2006 to 2007, handing nearly $12 million so far to campaigns, parties and PACs--a stunning 83 percent of which has gone to Democrats. And the majority of staff working for the new industry trade association--the Private Equity Council--are former Democratic Hill staffers. "If you're a Democrat and you have to choose between the alternative minimum tax and the hedge fund industry, that's one tough ideological choice," Viva Hammer, a former Treasury Department staffer, told the Post. "It's a choice between your votes and your wallet."
    --------------------
    It goes on to talk about John Kerry as well.

    Posted by: eyes_open Author Profile Page | November 13, 2007 2:54 PM

  6. Hedge funds would hedge their bets, no?

    Posted by: capt Author Profile Page | November 13, 2007 4:37 PM

  7. If you manage a hedge fund would that make you an economic garden keeper?

    Posted by: eyes_open Author Profile Page | November 13, 2007 5:56 PM

  8. The AMT has become an ATM for the government, affecting more people than had ever possibly been conceived initially. No one understands it, and everyone, including a lot of CPA's and attorneys I know, is shocked when it hits them. Its complexities probably account for 80% of TurboTax' sales.

    The Democrats run a very grave risk in the tax arena, the same as with immigration reform. Charley Rangel's tax reform must be tax-neutral, or the Repulicans will hang it around the heads of every Democrat next November.

    Similarly, Democrats must run like scalded dogs from any proposed immigration reform that confers instant legitimacy (e.g., drivers licenses) on alien workers. Poor Governor Spitzer has gone from the penthouse to the outhouse in a nanosecond, and the concept has absolutely roiled the Clinton campaign.

    There are similar hot buttons for the Republicans, but the discussion of those is to be saved for another thread.

    Posted by: Tomcantu Author Profile Page | November 13, 2007 6:09 PM

  9. A hedge fund manager that gives a huge unearned salary to themselves is a "Hedge Hog?"

    HA!

    Posted by: capt Author Profile Page | November 13, 2007 6:24 PM

  10. Whereas Senator Dianne Feinstein voted to support the nomination of Judge Michael Mukasey as United States Attorney General, thereby elevating to the highest position in law enforcement a man who refused to renounce the right of the President to resort to torture and who refused to recognize waterboarding as a form of torture, and by this action Senator Feinstein failed to oppose President Bush and failed to stand for the ideals of the Democratic Party, which abhors torture and stands firmly against its use by the United States at all times and places; and
    Whereas Senator Feinstein voted to confirm Judge Leslie Southwick for a seat on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit despite his clear record of racism and gender discrimination, thus failing to stand firmly with the Democratic Party, which supports gender equality and opposes racism in any of its manifestations; and

    Whereas these examples are far from the only instances where Senator Feinstein, after seeking and securing the support and endorsement of the California Democratic Party, has failed to support the policies and principles of our party

    Therefore be it resolved that the California Democratic Party expresses its disappointment at, and censure of, Senator Feinstein for ignoring Democratic principles and falling so far below the standard of what we expect of our elected officials.

    *****

    Here here and ABOUT TIME.

    Posted by: capt Author Profile Page | November 13, 2007 6:28 PM

  11. "Ninety percent of the politicians give the other ten percent a bad reputation. "

    ~ Henry Kissinger (1923 - )

    Posted by: capt Author Profile Page | November 13, 2007 8:28 PM

  12. Here is a little prediction. It is not likely to be more accurate than any other but:

    The D’s demand Bush brings down the number of troops. Bush will not do that because of a demand but he will do it because the surge has worked so well.

    Then (as always) about the time the troops are scheduled to cycle out there will be some escalation of violence so since the last surge went so well we will need to send another surge.

    The total number of troops will ebb and flow up and down with no end in sight.

    We are winning, we are turning the corner, just a few more troops and we have them beat, the bad guys are on the run, we have to hit them while they are down, just a little bit more, we almost have them, we have to stay to preserve our glorious victories, we have to stay to make sure those that died did so for a grand cause, leaving is surrender, we are too close to the ultimate goal, if we leave now everything we have done is for nothing, and on and on.

    They drag on the inevitable.

    Nobody, no world power, no military can ever win an occupation. When the occupier leaves the insurgents will always claim victory over the occupier. We have to accept that and move on. Bush screwed the pooch and is just playing out the clock with the lives of our troops and the taxes the next generation will pay.

    Bush vetoed another bill today saying the democrats are spending too much? In nearly the same breath he wants $200 billion more to postpone facing his failure.

    His precious ego is not worth one red cent let alone the thousands of troops and hundreds of thousands of innocent lives lost.

    Posted by: capt Author Profile Page | November 13, 2007 10:27 PM

Post A Comment


(for verification only; will not be published with your comment)