Results tagged “terrorism” from SpyTalk

Axles of Evil Often Trip Up Terror Suspects

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We're lucky that criminals are such boneheads.

But there's something weird about the relationship terrorists have with rental trucks. 

Some of the thugs seem to have a mental timeout when it comes to dealing with their chosen vehicles of mass destruction.
Who can forget Victor Mature as Interpol secret agent Charles Sturgis?

Almost everybody, it turns out. The 1957 B-movie was almost immediately consigned to the crime noir dustbin.

But the popular image of the International Criminal Police Organization as a global network of brilliant sleuths has never dimmed - no matter that Interpol doesn't really do any policing itself.

It "facilitates the exchange of information to assist law enforcement agencies in the United States and throughout the world in detecting and deterring international crime and terrorism through a network of 187 member countries," in the words of the Justice Department's Inspector General.

Washington's node on the Interpol network is the U.S. National Central Bureau.

And it's apparently clueless, the IG said in a stinging audit report Monday.

The Other Half of Krulak's Letter to Geo. Will

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What do you call a tsunami that falls on a deserted island?

A seismic event.

George Will's call for troop withdrawals from Afghanistan, which surfaced on Aug. 31, seems to fit that category. It hit Washington when the chattering classes were at the beach, toughing out stay-cations or busy putting their kids in school.

So let's take another look.

Justice: PanAm 103 Bombing Case Still Open

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The release of Abdel Basset Ali Al-Megrahi from a Scottish jail has opened cash spigots from Tripoli to London, but a Justice Department spokesman says the Libyan Pan Am 103 bomber could be arrested again, along with other unnamed conspirators.

"There remains an open indictment in the District of Columbia and an open investigation," Richard Kolko, an FBI agent and Justice Department spokesman, told SpyTalk Thursday.

Say It Ain't So, Tom

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You can imagine the conversation Tom Ridge had with his literary agent last year.

"Governor, I've just finished your manuscript. Wonderful -- all that fascinating stuff about how the government works -- or doesn't!"  (Laughs.)

"All those alphabet agencies - NSC, ODNI, NCTC - my God. How did you keep all of them straight?" (Chuckles.)

Clashes Over Pakistan's Nuclear Safety

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Pakistan denied Wednesday that any of its nuclear facilities had been attacked, while the author of the original allegation said his words were being ripped out of context.

Shaun Gregory, a U.K.-based expert on Pakistan, reported in a prestigious West Point, N.Y. counterterrorism journal that extremist militants had attacked nuclear arms facilities three times over the past two years.

Interrogator: 'Intolerance' Led to Torture

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Former Air Force Maj. Matthew Alexander, whose questioning of a captured terrorist led to the elimination al Qaeda's top man in Iraq, said a pervasive "intolerance" of Arabs and Muslims among American interrogators led to abuses at Abu Ghraib and other prisons.

"Soldiers referred to them as rag heads and so on," Alexander said during a Monday talk at the International Spy Museum, in Washington, D.C. to promote his book, "How To Break a Terrorist: The U.S. Interrogators Who Used Brains, Not Brutality, to Take Down the Deadliest Man in Iraq."

Official: Assaults on Pak Nukes No Threat

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Recent jihadist attacks on Pakistan's nuclear facilities did not threaten the security of the weapons inside, an American intelligence official says.

PanAm 103 Detectives: Don't Let Bomber Go

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The top Scottish and FBI investigators on the PanAm 103 bombing case are imploring U.K. authorities not to release the Libyan convicted for the attack. 

Speculation mounted Wednesday about the imminent release of Abdul Baset Ali al-Megrahi, the lone Libyan convicted in connection with the 1989 terrorist bombing of PanAmerican flight 103, following a prison visit by the Scottish Justice Secretary.

But Stuart Henderson, the retired senior investigating officer at the Lockerbie Incident Control Centre, and Richard Marquise, the FBI special agent in charge of the US taskforce, argued that al-Megrahi's release would "nullify the dedicated work of dozens of law enforcement and intelligence officials around the world," according to a letter obtained by the Times of London.

Incongruities in NC Terrorism Case

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The feds have been hyping their domestic terrorism cases for several years now, and the arrest of seven North Carolina men this week appears to be no exception.

The headliners in the case, of course, are ordinary folks Daniel Patrick Boyd and his two sons, who prosecutors say led three lives: good family men, likeable neighbors and secret terrorists.

Human Face of Terror in Mumbai Trial

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Most people probably think of terrorists as natural born killers.

But in the confession of Ajmal Lasab, the only Pakistani gunman to survive the terror attack on Mumbai last November, a more complex picture emerges.

NBC's 'The Wanted' Producer Suing CIA

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NBC has earned a lot of ridicule for its faux-reality catch-a-terrorist show, "The Wanted," which debuted Monday night on NBC.

Most of the spotlight has fallen on the show's star, a former Green Beret colonel with leading man looks, Roger Carstens.  In the show's first installment, Carstens confronted the onetime leader of a Kurdistan-based, al Qaeda-linked terrorist group now living in Norway.

As fascinating a figure as Carstens is, the real curiosity in the show is Adam Ciralsky, a former CIA lawyer who has been an investigative producer at NBC for several years now and takes on that role in "The Wanted."
He may yet turn out to be the avatar of Iranian democracy, but three decades ago Mir-Hossein Mousavi was waging a terrorist war on the United States that included bloody attacks on the U.S. embassy and Marine Corps barracks in Beirut.
 
Mousavi, prime minister for most of the 1980s, personally selected his point man for the Beirut terror campaign, Ali Akbar Mohtashemi-pur, and dispatched him to Damascus as Iran's ambassador, according to former CIA and military officials.
American and Israeli intelligence organizations, in cooperation with local security services, have scored notable recent successes against Hezbollah, the Lebanon-based terror organization, according to a new report.
U.S. and European officials have been at war over the wording of the Geneva Convention ever since American forces invaded Afghanistan in late 2001 and began rounding up terrorist suspects and Taliban fighters.

Maybe it's time for a new Geneva Convention for the age of terrorism.
Saudi Prince Turki al-Faisal, an influential member of the Saudi royal family and former head of its intelligence service, says the U.S. should kill Osama Bin Laden and then " get the hell out" of Afghanistan.

Turki, who was also Saudi ambassador to the United States from 2005 to April 2009, likened al Qaeda to a "cult"  and its leader to a  "hydra head with venomous snakes."

To destroy the cult, he said, "you have to cut off the head."

"After that," he advised, "declare victory...then get the hell out of  Afghanistan."
School visits seem to have a strange effect on Condoleezza Rice's brain.

The former secretary of state and White House national security advisor has made more controversial remarks in the few months since she's been out of office than the eight years she was in it.

Last week was her attention-getting elocution on torture at Stanford. Now comes a transcript of her remarks on Sunday, May 3, at an event sponsored by Jewish Primary Day School in the nation's capital.

Revisiting the events of Sept. 11, 2001, Rice said top Bush administration officials were ignorant about al Qaeda when the terrorists struck the World Trade Center towers and Pentagon. 

In the continuing cacophony over what torture is and whether it "works," an important point has gone missing, say current and former counterterrorism operatives.

The CIA's reliance on repeated, and brutal, "enhanced" interrogation techniques shows how few spies the spy agency had before and after the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks.

That made the agency's reliance on squeezing new information out of captured terrorist suspects all the more desperate, many say.
The feds finally got their hombre.

This week's indictment of the famously elusive anti-Castro terrorist Luis Carriles Posada, a onetime CIA agent and professional counterrevolutionary, is the legal equivalent of driving a wooden stake into his heart.

But maybe it's wrong.
Fingers are pointing every which way in the wake of Monday's blood-soaked assault on a police academy in Lahore, Pakistan, that left 27 cadets dead and twice that number wounded.  

But according to the usually reliable Asia Times Online, the attack represented an ominous development in the already perilous Pakistan security situation.

Quoting "militant sources," the magazine said the raid was "the first major operation of the new nexus comprising al-Qaeda, Pakistani Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud and Punjabi militants."
Rep. Frank Wolf of Virginia, the top Republican on a House Appropriations subcommittee with jurisdiction over the Justice Department, wants to know why the FBI has broken off contact with an Islamic organization that was advising it on how to handle relations with American  Muslims.
The controversial Iranian exile organization MEK, which the United States calls a terrorist group, could soon see a windfall of tens of millions of dollars as the result of the European Union's decision Monday to take it off its list of terrorist organizations.
A story in Sunday's Washington Post depicting Guantanamo prisoner files in "disarray" is wrong, says the former Pentagon official in charge of terrorist detainee affairs.

According to the Jan. 25 account, Charles D. "Cully" Stimson, who served as deputy assistant defense secretary for detainee affairs in 2006-2007, "said he had persistent problems in attempts to assemble all information on individual cases."

Only "threats to recommend the release or transfer of a detainee" persuaded the CIA to "cough up a sentence or two," Stimson was quoted as saying.

But in a brief interview to double-check his statement Monday afternoon, Stimson maintained, "I never said they were in disarray."

Are Terror-Finance Tracking Priorities Screwed Up?

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A scatttering of dots spilled in two seemingly unconnected stories over the weekend adds up to a dispiriting conclusion about one of the most important programs in the our post-9/11 national security arsenal: tracking the movement of money through banks and charities to terrorist groups may be way out of whack.

The first dots fell out of an interesting piece by Ann Louise Bardach in the Sunday Washngton Post's "Outlook" section, about prospects for changes in U.S. policy toward Cuba in the Obama administration. 

One of the "losers" under the new regime, Bardach speculates, will be the Cuban program in the Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC).

"OFAC's chief mandate is to enforce sanctions against countries harboring terrorists," writes Bardach, author of "Cuba Confidential" and the forthcoming "Without Fidel: A Death Foretold in Miami, Washington and Havana."

"But a 2007 government study found that 61 percent of the office's investigations since 2000 had been aimed at just one target: Cuba," Bardach reports. "Between 2000 and 2005, OFAC penalties for violations of the Cuban embargo represented more than 70 percent of all the penalties the office imposed."

Hello? Can anyone here spell I-r-a-n?

Bardach notes that a 2004 congressional hearing revealed that tax dollars earmarked for the war on terrorism were spent on tracking unauthorized travelers to Cuba.

"At the hearing, OFAC acknowledged that it had just four employees searching for the funds of Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein, as opposed to more than 20 full-time investigators charged with hunting down suspected violators of the embargo."

Among the uses of your taxpayer dollars: "OFAC's prosecution of a 75-year-old grandmother from San Diego who took a bicycling trip to Cuba, an Indiana teacher who delivered Bibles and the son of missionaries who traveled to the island to spread his parents' ashes at the site of the church they'd founded 50 years before."

Good lord.  

Now turn to a story in yesterday's New York Times, in which reporters Vikas Bajaj and John Eligion report that:

"Iranian banks illegally shifted billions of dollars through American financial institutions in recent years, and authorities suspect some of the money may have been used to finance Iran's nuclear and missile programs."

Oh, really?  Maybe the feds were too busy tracing Grandma's purchase of a Cuban postcard to notice. 

The main culprit, the Lloyds TSB Group, in Britain, was so darn tricky, prosecutors told the the reporters.

"It 'stripped' information that would have identified the transfers in order to deceive American financial institutions, which are barred from doing business with Iranian banks ..."

According to Robert M. Morgenthau, the Manhattan district attorney, "money in one transaction was used to buy a large amount of tungsten, an ingredient for making long-range missiles. He said he suspected that other funds might have been used to finance Iran's nuclear program."

Our friend Doug Farah says that the ongoing investigation suggests that the Iranians have learned much from the nuclear smuggling ring organized by Pakistani scientist A.Q. Khan. 

"This is the pipeline at its best. One simply has to shift addresses, at least on paper, the companies go again, and the pipeline is unclogged and continues to carry its vital products. The flexibility of the pipeline and its ability to adapt and reroute itself in a very short period of time is one of its greatest strengths." 

As for terrorist finance investigations, Farah concludes: "Iran, with years of experience in the game, is unlikely to be knocked much off its stride in the acquisitions game."

Especially when OFAC is spending time so much time and effort looking at Cuba, methinks.

U.S. Fingers Four Former Pakistan Spy Chiefs

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A little over a decade ago I sat in the living room of Hamid Gul, a still-powerful former head of Pakistani intelligence, listening to him rail in cold fury about the United States.

A hawk-like man with laser black eyes, Gul was known as the "father of the Taliban" for his role in midwifing the fundamentalist Afghan coalition into a fighting force that took Kabul and ruled the country with a puritanical zeal until ousted by the U.S. in the wake of 9/11.

Now he's been fingered by the U.S. as one of four former top Pakistani intelligence officers supporting Islamic terrorism.
The U.S. warned India, perhaps even twice, about impending attacks on Mumbai from Pakistan, according to anonymous senior officials.

But what about Pakistan?  If the reports are correct, did U.S. intelligence warn the Pakistan government that terrorists were about to launch the Mumbai assault from its territory?

If not, why not?

And if so, what did Pakistan do about it?

That seems to be the most obvious element missing from the story so far, that terrorists launched their assault from Pakistan.

The effect of saying that India was warned in advance is to portray its security officials as incompetent, if not derelict. (Some have already resigned.) 

In other words, it tends to spread at least some of the blame for the attacks to Indian officials, at least temporarily, and away from the growing conclusion that Pakistan is to blame for the tragedy.

I have no reason to doubt that a "senior U.S. official" - probably Condoleezza Rice, en route to India -- told the Associated Press that the "Bush administration warned India before last week's brutal attacks in Mumbai that terrorists appeared to be plotting a mostly waterborne assault on its financial capital."

Other unnamed officials, including "a senior counterterrorism official" and Pakstani intelligence sources, chimed in along the same lines, adding details to the allegation that at least some of the terrorists came by sea.

Some news organizations had already found Pakistanis who said they saw suspicious looking men come ashore.

"Waterborne" can only mean from Karachi, the sprawling Pakistani port teeming with al Qaeda-linked terrorists and groups backing armed assaults on India over the disputed territory of Kashmir.

Were Pakistani security forces provided with the alleged U.S. warning as well, so they could hunt down the plotters?

Or did the U.S. withhold it, on grounds that Pakistani military, intelligence and security units, riddled with extremist Muslim spies, cannot be trusted?

White House spokeswoman Dana Perino, aboard Air Force one with President Bush en route to North Carolina, declined to answer any questions about the affair.

"I'm not able to talk about any of our intelligence community -- any of their cooperation with any other country," she told reporters, according to the White House transcript.  "It would not be appropriate for me to do so, so I have to decline to comment on that."

Likewise, a CIA spokesman declined comment, saying the agency "does not, as a rule, publicly discuss exchanges with other intelligence services."

The National Intelligence Directorate did not immediately respond to e-mail inquiries.

A Pakistani spokesman said he would need more time to provide a definitive answer to the question.

Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari, interviewed Tuesday by CNN's Larry King, said his government was "in no way responsible" for Mumbai.

"Even the White House and the American CIA have said that today," he asserted -- falsely -- according to an advance transcript.  "The state of Pakistan is of course not involved. We're part of the victims, Larry."

Zaradi also said he "would not know" if Lashkar-e-Toiba, the militant, Pakistan-based group fighting to end Indian dominance of Kashmir, was involved with the Mumbai suicide-massacre.
 
"If indeed they are involved, we would not know," he said.

"Again, they are people who operate outside the system. They operate like -- al Qaeda, for instance, is not state-oriented. They operate something on that mechanism, and we would love to -- I've already offered to India full cooperation on this incident, and we intend to do that."

Zadari also suggested no one found to be involved would be turned over to India.

"If we had the proof, we would try them in our courts, we would try them in our land and we would sentence them," he said.


(For more on this, see tonite's PBS show, WorldFocus.)
Were foreigners really targeted by terrorists in Mumbai? 

Multiple news accounts during the 60-hour siege of the coastal city quoted the same few foreign and Indian hotel guests saying terrorists were searching for U.S. and U.K. passport holders

If so, then why did the shooters fire so indiscriminately on ordinary Indians at the train station, a popular cafe and the hotels? 

Less than 30 of the 188 dead were foreigners, including at least six Americans and eight Israelis killed at a Jewish religious center that had been seized by the attackers. Many foreigners, including a large group of Russians, escaped unharmed.

Newsweek International editor Fareed Zakaria raised a rare note of skepticism about the initial accounts. 

"I think one of the misconceptions we're seeing so far is the assumption that these attacks were aimed primarily at foreigners," Zakaria said

"Look at their targets. The two hotels they attacked--the Taj and the Oberoi--are old, iconic Indian hotels. It used to be true that these places were affordable only by Westerners. But this is no longer true, and it's one of the big changes over the last ten years in India. The five-star hotels today are filled with Indians. Businessmen, wedding receptions, parties...these are real meeting places now, and even those who cannot afford to stay there often pass through the lobby."

Zakaria said the Mumbai outposts of U.S. chains -- the Marriott, Hilton and Four Seasons -- offered better target-rich environments for the terrorists,  if it was foreigners they were after.

"The Taj and the Oberoi are owned by Indians. My guess is that there will be a lot of Indians involved, and that this will generate a lot of domestic outrage," he said.

Harry B. "Skip" Brandon, a former deputy head of counterintelligence for the FBI who has frequently visited Mumbai on private business, generally agreed with Zakaria.

"I think he is correct, and besides, the real business center of Mumbai is now out by the airport and this is where the 'Western' hotels he mentions are primarily located.  So in this sense, if their targets were Westerners, while many would be, and were, in the Taj and Oberoi, the real target-rich environment would be where Zakaria mentions."

On the other hand,  Brandon added by e-mail, "Indian officials particularly love to use the Taj, as it is in many ways a national treasure and 'the place to be.'  Maybe it's too fine a distinction to be definitive either way."

Indeed, focusing on foreign casualties obscures the fact that the terrorists seemed indiscriminate in their killing spree, which included slitting the throat of the captain of a fishing boat they hijacked, according to news accounts".  

Brandon, partnered with former CIA operations officer Gene M. Smith in a Washington-based business intelligence firm, counseled caution in assessing the identity of the perpetrators and their targets "until this is really unraveled by investigators."

"Of course, they obviously targeted the Jewish Center, and this is different from the sadly routine attacks in India by the Kashmiri separatists, so who knows what this whole thing was?"

For its part, an unnamed operative of Lashkar-i-Toiba, the Pakistan-based Kashmiri separatist group suspected of carrying out the attacks, denied any role in Mumbai.

"Whatever we have attacked, we have targeted military or government installations," the  operative was quoted as saying in The Washington Post.     

Adding to the unanswered questions, there were unconfirmed reports in the Indian press that terrorists at the Taj and Trident-Oberoi hotels "allowed 17 Russian hostages, including nine defense contractors, to leave after checking their passports, following which they were safely evacuated."

Meanwhile, a member of India's Antiterrorism Squad branch in Mumbai, speaking anonymously, "disputed Indian press assertions that the attackers were Pakistani, saying they were of many nationalities," the New York Times reported. 

Another intriguing element, uncovered by The Washington Post's indefatigable New Delhi correspondent, Emily Wax: One of the terrorists who infiltrated Mumbai by sea spoke in "heavily accented Hindi."  

And further proof that India is different from the United States: Indian Home Minister Shivraj Patil submitted his resignation over the weekend.

Did any U.S. national security official resign after the 9/11 attacks? I must have missed it. 

Patil had become highly unpopular during a long series of [unsolved] terror attacks, the Associated Press reported. "Our Politicians Fiddle as Innocents Die," read a headline Sunday in the Times of India newspaper, part of a growing chorus of criticism. 

If nothing else,  Mumbai closes the chapter on the circa-9/11 terror era, at least for Americans.

The period following Sept. 11, 2001 airline hijackings, in fact, looks like the good ol' days, in light of how al Qaeda has metastacized into the hydra-headed terrorism monster we face today.

Back then, with the remains of the Twin Towers still smoldering, the thinking was that all we had to do was roll up our sleeves  to make fast work of  Osama bin Laden and his gang of cave dwellers. But the fugitive Saudi millionaire's escape into the snows of the Hindu Kush, with the help of the Pakistani army, showed that we were playing in a far more complicated game.

Mumbai puts an exclamation point on it.

Until Mumbai, when it emerged that the terrorists were singling out U.S., along with British and Israeli citizens, most Americans were probably only dimly aware that the beta version of al Qaeda had long been eclipsed by an even more lethal 2.0.

Today, al Qaeda affiliates and wannabees are roiling a crescent-shaped swath of the world ranging from the Philippines across the Indian subcontinent through the Middle East to the westernmost tip of North Africa.  Its émigrés have launched attacks from or in Germany, Britain, France, Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands, Spain and Italy. 

But the terror hasn't really touched Americans in demonstrative numbers. Whether by good fortune or the skills of our counterterrorism warriors, or both, we have escaped the Muslim fundamentalist plague infesting the rest of the world.

Mumbai should make clear that our luck may be running out. Luxury hotels where Americans stay cannot be protected in any meaningful sense.

And another thing: That CIA renditions,  Predator missile strikes in Pakistan and more U.S. troops in Afghanistan may not only not solve the problem, they may aggravate it. 

Guns are so 2001-2002.

And back then we had the world's goodwill from the World Trade Center and Pentagon attacks.

The Bush administration squandered it Iraq, immeasurably making the challenge more difficult. 

We can never get that back. 

The election of  a very smart black man with Hussein in his name as President of the United States amounts, at this late point,  to only a slim chance at a fresh start. 

The Pakistan government, evidently stung by domestic criticism that it was kowtowing to India, decided against sending its top spy to New Delhi late Friday and instead dispatched a lesser intelligence official.   

The change in plans put in stark relief how domestic politics will constrict the latitude the longtime nuclear rivals have to respond coolly to the Mumbai terrorist attacks.

The political pot was being stirred in India as well.

In the wake of Indian accusation that the Mumbai assault was carried out by Pakistan-based Muslim extremists, a top Hindu nationalist showed up in front of television cameras in Mumbai to bash the government's handling of the affair.

Narendra Modi, " arguably India's most incendiary politician," in a New York Times account, said. "The country expected a lot from Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, but his address to the nation was disappointing."

Indians are going to the polls Saturday in five state elections. National elections are expected to be held next spring.

Pakistani officials had initially said the government was sending its spy chief, Lt. Gen. Ahmed Shuja Pasha, on an unprecedented mission to India "to share and obtain information from investigators there," according to the Times account. 

But later Friday the decision was reversed, and a less senior intelligence official was being dispatched in his place, according to reports.

The Islamabad government was "already bending over backwards" to be cooperative and did not "want to create more opportunities for Pakistan-bashing." Pakistan's defense minister, Chaudhry Ahmed Mukhtar, told reporters in Islamabad, "I will say in very categoric terms that Pakistan is not involved in these gory incidents."

[I discussed these warnings on the PBS television show WorldFocus.]
Pakistan, fending off growing evidence that terrorists mounted a seaborne assault from Karachi, said Friday it was dispatching its spy chief to India. 

Terrorists suspected of links to Kashmiri separatists have killed at least 150 people, including 22 foreigners, in a wide ranging, coordinated assault on India's financial and movie capital that began Wednesday.  

The terrorists' main targets were two luxury hotels and the headquarters of an Orthodox Jewish organization. 

Indian officials told reporters two gunmen had been captured who were British citizens of Pakistani origin.

Indian Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee pointed a finger directly at Pakistan, saying: "Based on preliminary information, and prima facie evidence we have, elements of Pakistan are linked to this." 

But Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi warned India not to "be jingoist" and said the two nuclear armed countries "are facing a common enemy, and we have to join hands to defeat this enemy."s

According to a SpyTalk source with close connections to top Indian intelligence and security officials, it was "far less likely today than a few years ago" that Pakistani intelligence, which in the past was deeply involved with Islamic Kashmiri separatists, would have been involved in the Mumbai attacks.

[I discussed these warnings on the PBS television show WorldFocus.]

Mukherjee did not specifically charge Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence, or ISI, with complicity in the assault. 

Pakistan's  decision to send Lt. Gen. Ahmed Shuja Pasha, the director general of the ISI, will mark the first time one of its chiefs has been known to visit India, its longtime nuclear-armed rival, but recently both sides' intelligence services have been meeting with an idea toward quelling points of tension 

It was not immediately clear, however, when General Pasha would leave for India.

Islamists Had Warned of Mumbai Attacks

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UPDATE (12:50 am EST Friday): With Indian authorities still battling to root out terrorist attackers, fears grew that casualties would rise past the 119 known dead and 300 wounded. At least dozens of people, perhaps many more, remained trapped in the hotels, but the number held hostage was unknown. 

Indian commandos, meanwhile, stormed a Jewish center where gunmen were holding a number of people hostage. In a development freighted with dangerous implications, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh went on television and said the attacks probably had "external linkages," clearly fingering its nuclear-armed neighbor Pakistan. 

The Islamic terrorists who claimed responsibility for Wednesday's Mumbai bombings warned two months ago they were targeting the city, home to India's financial services and movie industries.

The warning came in September, following Islamic extremist attacks in other cities. 

"The Indian Mujahideen, which has claimed responsibility for the Delhi, Ahmedabad, Bangalore and Jaipur blasts killing at least 130 people in a span of four months, has now threatened to carry out attacks in Mumbai," reported the Deccan Herald, part of a quality newspaper group based in Bangalore, on Sept. 15.

The group accused Mumbai's antiterrorism squad of harassing Muslims and said in an email that "it was closely watching the ATS," the Herald reported.

[I discussed these warnings on the PBS television show WorldFocus.]

A heretofore unknown group calling itself Deccan Mujahideen claimed responsibility for the attacks in e-mail messages sent to Indian news organizations. Authorities have not confirmed  the identity of the attackers.

But Rohan Gunaratna, an international terrorism expert, told CNN Wednesday that only the Indian Mujahideenhad the resources to carry out the plan.

The head of Mumbai's antiterrorism police was killed in Wednesday's attacks.

The claim of Islamic militants will undoubtedly prompt Indian officials to point a finger at Pakistan's intelligence service, the ISI, for complicity in the attacks. The ISI has supported Islamic rebels in Kashmir for decades, despite official denials.

American security officials also blame ISI elements for supporting the Taliban in the Pakistani tribal areas that also host al Qaeda, likewise a Sunni Muslim terrorist organization.

But Hindu extremists cannot be ruled out for the Mumbai bombings, either.

Last summer Indian authorities initially blamed Muslim terrorists for a seris of bombings that would eventually kill 145 people.

But in October, police arrested Hindu militants for the attacks. 

"It is too early to tell with any precision who is behind these attacks," Tom Jocelyn granted at The Weekly Standard. "The smart money is on the multi-headed hydra of terrorist and extremist groups based in Pakistan and Kashmir." 

"Indeed, Pakistan's intelligence service has waged a proxy war against India using terrorists for decades. The two nuclear powers have avoided a large-scale exchange, but the Pakistani ISI has repeatedly sponsored or aided terrorist groups targeting civilians in India. For example, Indian authorities were quite vocal in blaming Pakistan for the July 11, 2006 train bombings, which killed more than 200."

A leading suspect for coordinating the attacks is Abdul Subhan Qureshi, also known as Tauqeer, a Mumbai-educated member of the Indian Mujahideen credited with masterminding several of the previous attacks. London's Guardian newspaper said Wednesday. 

He's also been called "India's Osama bin Laden."

"Reports from India's intelligence agencies claim he has been able to use his expertise as a computer engineer to stay one step ahead of his pursuers and to coordinate attacks."

ATS chief Hemant Karkare, two senior police officers and at least 80 others have been killed in the ongoing attacks. Over 240 have been wounded so far.

A witness told Indian television that gunmen in Mumbai looked for British and U.S. passport holders in the city's posh hotels.

"They wanted foreigners, " he told a local television station, according to Reuters. 

Monday Afternoon Quarterback

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Pentagon Counterterror Teams Go Deep  

It's interesting to speculate on why the expanded operations of Pentagon counterterror teams surfaced in the New York Times today. But one of them has to be that the noses of CIA and State Department officials remain severely out of joint from an initiative launched right after the  9/11 attacks by President Bush and then-Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.

"Shortly after the Sept. 11 attacks, Mr. Bush issued a classified order authorizing the C.I.A. to kill or capture Qaeda militants around the globe," write Times reporters Eric Schmitt and Mark Mazzetti.

"By 2003, American intelligence agencies and the military had developed a much deeper understanding of Al Qaeda's extensive global network, and Mr. Rumsfeld pressed hard to unleash the military's vast firepower against militants outside the combat zones of Iraq and Afghanistan."

According to the Times, a 2004 order identified "15 to 20 countries, including Syria, Pakistan, Yemen, Saudi Arabia and several other Persian Gulf states, where Qaeda militants were believed to be operating or to have sought sanctuary, a senior administration official said."  

Soon enough, American ambassadors, who are supposed to be the top U.S. official in a foreign country, grew increasingly annoyed by Pentagon "cowboys" zipping in and out, congressional committees heard.

But if only because the State Department, and the CIA, couldn't keep DoD out of their sandboxes, they have been supporting the operations, the Times said.

A number of CIA veterans, however, say that the military teams are too often ill equipped for the missions, in terms of language abilities and knowledge of local customs and mores.

And they wonder what will happen when - inevitably, they say - a solider in mufti is caught red-handed in a place like Pakistan or Turkey, where nationalist feelings run high. Show trials - and the threat of executions (not to mention waterboarding) - are not out of the question.

Not that CIA assassins or kidnappers would be treated any better - or  know their way around a foreign country better -- than a veteran Army Special Forces operative, they also concede.

In any event, there's plenty of work to go around to keep everybody busy.

"It is far too easy to criticize CIA," a longtime Special Forces and Delta operative told me last year, "but all their renditions have resulted in far less than 100 detentions.  For an outfit like al Qaeda, which trained tens of thousands in Afghanistan, that doesn't amount to many at all."

Manchurian Candidates, Saudi Style

Tucked into the back of Sunday's New York Times Magazine is a fascinating piece on the Saudi way of dealing with former al Qaeda operatives (some captures, some inherited from Guantanamo).

"Brainwashing lite," the Chinese might call it. Or "re-education," what the North Vietnamese termed the communist dogma they poured into the heads of the southern brethren they defeated in 1975, usually in brutal work camps.

The Saudies have a kinder, gentler way. They board their charges in comfortable seaside dormitories, give them electronic toys and stipends, and talk them out of jihad by challenging their religious rationales for choosing guns and bombs.   

It seems to work, by the students' accounts, anyway.

Writer Katherine Zoepf, who visited the classes, quotes Bernard Haykel, a professor of Near Eastern Studies at Princeton, who says the methods are "consistent with Saudi history, in that you try through nonviolent means to cajole, to bribe, to buy off the opposition."

"Dozens" of Terror Plots Disrupted, Top Spy Says

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Speaking at his high school alma mater in Greenville, S.C., Director of National Intelligence Mike McConnell claimed Sunday that "dozens" of terrorist plots against the U.S. have been thwarted since 9/11.

Privately, many serious analysts of terrorist threats, both in and outside of U.S. spy agencies, question whether the figure is exaggerated -- while at the same time confirming that al Qaeda-associated terrorists continue to pose  a mortal threat to the U.S. homeland.

"As we are today - post 9/11 - just some seven short years ago, we have not suffered a similar attack. That is not because people aren't trying," said McConnell in a speech during his induction into Wade Hampton High School's "Legion of Honor," a roster of distinguished graduates. 

"My community and the community of military, and law enforcement, and intelligence officials around the globe are working every day to prevent another attack on the United States. And we have been successful dozens of times."

Responding to a request for clarification, a spokesperson for McConnell today cited four documents, including a Justice Department report on counterterrorism issued on the seventh anniversary of the 9/11 attacks. 

The report listed eight "notable" prosecutions, but suggested other plots had been disrupted by covert counterterrorism operations that did not -- or may not have been intended to -- result in arrests.

"In each of these cases, the Department has faced critical decisions on when to bring criminal charges, given that a decision to prosecute a suspect exposes the government's interest in that person and effectively ends covert intelligence investigation," it said.

Such determinations require the careful balancing of competing interests, including the immediate incapacitation of a suspect and disruption of terrorist activities through prosecution, on the one hand; and the continuation of intelligence collection about the suspect's plans, capabilities, and confederates, on the other; as well as the inherent risk that a suspect could carry out a violent act while investigators and prosecutors attempt to perfect their evidence.

An FBI spokesman declined to comment, beyond referring me to past reports on terrorist plots, including one which cited 24 incidents between 2002 and 2005 that included attacks by animal rights and white supremacist groups

A White House Fact Sheet released in Oct. 2005 named "10 plots" that had been disrupted and five "casings and infiltrations" that were either detected or disrupted.  

Such figures suggest that at least two dozen more plots had to have been thwarted in the past three years to reach McConnell's "dozens"  threshold.

A recently retired senior CIA counterterrorism officer expressed skepticism about McConnell's figure, saying it came down to "word games."

Perhaps a half dozen "serious" terrorist plots against the U.S. homeland had been disrupted by Western intelligence, he said on condition of anonymity, because the information is classified, such as the 2006 London-based plot to sabotage nine commercial airliners en route to the United States. 

But he was skeptical of McConnell's claim that "dozens" of attacks had been thwarted.

"I suppose every time they arrest a guy who had an idea for an attack and put him in jail they can claim they 'stopped an attack'," he said. 

"After all, the FBI arrested some guys and charged them with conspiracy to blow up the Sears Tower, and the closest they ever got to doing anything was driving around the building with a video camera - which the FBI gave them."

But author Ronald Kessler, a longtime intelligence specialist with close contacts in the spy agencies and White House, made the same "dozens" claim as McConnell in a recent book, "The Terrorist Watch: Inside the Desperate Race to Stop the Next Attack." 

Responding to a query Monday, Kessler cited the White House and Justice Department reports and expressed a weariness about questioning "what was a real planned attack."

"If something was not blown up, it was not a real attack," according to critics, Kessler said.

"Many more have been rolled up since then. Beyond that, because the FBI and CIA have rolled up more than 5,000 terrorists worldwide since 9/11, most of the attacks were never hatched in the first place," he said.

A senior Bush administration official Thursday left open the possibility that American and other oil companies who want to do business with Muammar el-Qaddafi are secretly paying off his debt to victims of the Pan Am 103 and Labelle discotheque bombings.

The Bush administration, pressured by Congress, has made full satisfaction of the $1.5 billion debt a prerequisite for restoring full diplomatic and commercial relations with Libya, which renounced its pursuit of nuclear weapons in 2003. 

The payments were supposed to be completed in September, but a first installment arrived "just ... overnight," David C. Welch, Assistant Secretary of State for Near East Affairs, said during a hastily arranged telephone conference Thursday with reporters.
 
Welch would not say how much was paid, who it came from, where it was deposited,  or when the balance would be forthcoming.

According to Kara Weipz, President of Victims of Pan Am Flight 103, "a third of the money was deposited in the fund today," but that could not be immediatey corroborated. 

The Libyans were supposed to pay into a "humanitarian fund" set up expressly for this purpose, as well as to pay compensation Qaddafi demanded for deaths and damage inflicted by U.S. jets that attacked Libya in response to the 1986 discotheque bombing.

But Libya has now side-stepped that requirement with a mystery payment on its behalf.

Welch said he was refusing to disclose the amount paid on Libya's behalf, deposited in a "U.S.-controlled" bank account, because "I think there's a high level of interest in the claimant community in these issues.  And we don't want to, you know, provoke any anxiety or infighting among them about it. "

Relatives of the victims of Libyan terrorism have been suing for years to get the remainder of the money promised them.  

Welch, a longtime specialist in Arab affairs, maintained that he did not know where the money came from, except that it was on Libya's behalf. 

"This initial deposit was - came from the Libyan side directly into the Account, 'A,' as we call it, for the American claimants," Welch said, adding that he was aware the Libyans had been asking oil companies to pony up.

"I don't know the provenance of it," he said of the deposit 

In response to a question Welch said, "Well, you know, the fund itself can receive contributions from anyplace. It's always been considered to be a voluntary fund."

He called the amount "a substantial indication of their commitment.... by today's standards .. a low risk mortgage down payment, if you understand what I mean." 

In a speech last April, Qaddafi bragged about making oil companies pay his debt.

"What we gave with our right hand, we took back with our left hand," he laughed in a widely circulated video

All 259 passengers and crew, including 180 Americans, and 11 people on the ground in  Lockerbie, Scotland, were killed in the 1989  Pam Am 103 bombing. Three people, including two American soldiers, were killed and 230 wounded in the 1986 Berlin disco attack. 

Libya eventually admitted responsibility for both.

Sen. Frank R. Lautenberg, D-N.J, has placed a hold on President Bush's nomination of Gene Cretz to be U.S. ambassador to Libya until all the money has been paid. Because of the Jewish holiday he was not available to comment on Welch's announcement, an aide said.

Lawrence Di Rita, former spokesman for Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld, escalated his attack today on a CIA officer's charge that Pentagon dithering wasted a chance to wipe out top al Qaeda figures in northern Iraq back in 2002.

In my original story, published late last night, I quoted Di Rita's objection to the allegation by Charles "Sam" Faddis, who led a CIA team into northern Iraq following the 9/11 attacks, that  the Pentagon's "endless planning and delays" foiled a chance to wipe out a band of al Qaeda leaders who were fleeing American bombs in Afghanistan.

After reading that piece online, Di Rita had this further comment:
A lawyer for 38 American victims of a quarter century old Libyan terrorist attack says he's not joining the celebration over a Senate bill that seemed to open the door to a restoration of full diplomatic and business relations between Washington and the erstwhile rogue state.

Attorney Thomas  Fay, who represents victims of the La Belle discotheque attack carried out against GIs in West Germany by Libyan agents in 1986, says he will not remove the liens he filed against American companies who have budding business relations with the North African police state ruled by Muammar Qaddafi.

Last week Congress unanimously approved legislation, enthusiastically backed by the White House and an organization representing families of the 180 Americans killed in 1989 by Libyan agents' sabotage of PanAm Flight 103, which would establish a universal settlement mechanism to resolve all U.S. cases of Libya's terrorism.    

Kara Weipz, spokesperson for the Families of the Victims of Pan Am 103, applauded the legislation as "a final step toward resolving the last payment by Libya.  The Pan Am 103 families urge Secretary Rice to act swiftly and finalize an agreement with Libya that fairly resolves all claims against Libya."    

But Fay, who represents 38 of the La Belle victims, denounced a statement by Washington  superlawyer Jacob Stein, another lawyer representing Libyan victims, that seemed to speak for all the La Belle families as well as the PanAm 103 victims.

"Stein had no authority from my clients to make an announcement in which they purported to speak for all of the La Belle victims," Fay told me.

He added, "No liens will be released until all of our clients are paid."

In March, Fay filed liens that put such as firms as Blank & Rome, the Livingston Group and White & Case on notice that assets from Libyan contracts could be seized to compensate victims of terrorist attacks that have been linked to their new client, Libya.  
   

Former Gitmo Prosecutor Says Trials Rigged

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Air Force Col. Morris D. Davis, who resigned last year after two years as chief prosecutor at Guantanamo, today described the military commissions system as fatally "tainted" by politics and designed to produce guilty verdicts, no matter what the costs.       

The possibility of the system delivering "credible verdicts is doubtful," Davis said Tuesday in a remarkable interview on NPR's Diane Rehm Show.

"The process has been so tainted, such a black eye to the country, that we have to make every effort possible to have an open trial...

"I'm afraid that what has happened, though, is that we've had a rush, in order to get things done before the election, rather than taking the time -- and getting evidence declassified in order to have an open trial is a frustrating, time consuming process, but in my view a necessary step if these things are going to have credibility.

Morris said the politicization of the system began at the top, with the appointment of  Susan Crawford, a "political appointee" with no time in uniform, to run the military commissions.