Taking a look back at the hard-fought presidential campaign from the primaries through the general election, an Associated Press/Yahoo poll conducted 10 times from November 2007 through Election Day found a significant number of voters who shifted their loyalties, sometimes more than once.

Seventeen percent of those who ultimately voted for Obama said that, at least one point, they supported McCain. Eleven percent of McCain supporters said there had been a time or times when they backed to Obama. Overall, just 28 percent of those who voted for Obama and 27 percent who chose McCain had backed their candidate in all 10 polls.

Other findings:

One in five who described themselves as independents in November 2007 divided 45 percent for McCain and 42 percent for Obama.

Three-quarters of those who said in January or April that they backed Hillary Clinton voted for Obama in the end.

Despite the current grim economic straits in which Americans currently find themselves, poll after poll since the elections have captured a mood of optimism about things getting better in the first term of a Barack Obama administration.

The latest is a Pew Research Center survey conducted Nov. 6-9 that showed voters, including many Republicans, feeling a high sense of satisfaction about the election and the way it was conducted, believing Obama's first term will be successful and holding high expectations for him. Three-quarters of voters gave Obama a grade of "A" or "B" for the way he handled himself in the campaign.

Voters overall believe by 67 percent to 22 percent that Obama will have a successful first term. That view is held nearly universally by Democrats (92 percent) and by 39 percent of those who voted for John McCain. Forty-five percent of McCain supporters don't believe Obama will be successful, but still, that 39 percent who do hold a positive view is significantly higher than the 26 percent of John Kerry supporters in 2004 who thought George Bush would be successful.

Here's what some of the last national polls of the campaign are saying:

Barack Obama is leading John McCain 50 percent to 43 percent among likely voters with 2 percent preferring someone else and 5 percent undecided in a Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll conducted Nov. 1-2. The margin of error is 3 points. Among all registered voters, Obam's lead is 48 percent to 43 percent. The last Fox poll in late October put Obama's lead at only 3 points.

Obama is leading McCain 53 percent to 42 percent among likely voters with 2 percent preferring neither or someone else and 3 percent undecided in a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted Oct. 3`1 - Nov.2. The margin of error is 2 percent. Among all registered voters, Obama's lead is 53 percent to 40 percent.

Gallup says: "The trend data clearly show Obama ending the campaign with an upward movement in support, with eight to 11 percentage point leads among likely voters in Gallup's last four reports of data extending back to Oct. 28. Obama's final leads among both registered voters and likely voters are the largest of the campaign."

The final Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll conducted Nov. 1-2 had Obama leading 51 percent to 43 percent among likely voters with 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.1 percent.

"The poll shows some slight movement for McCain. But with just 48 hours left, it's going to be a challenge to make up the rest of the difference," said Neil Newhouse, a Republican pollster who conducts the survey with Democrat Peter D. Hart.

Obama holds a 49 percent to 42 percent lead over McCain among likely voters in a Pew Research Center survey conducted Oct. 29 - Nov. 1. One percent each favored Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr and 7 percent were undecided. While Obama's margin is still significant, he had led by 15 percent in the Pew poll conducted Oct. 23-26. Among all registered voters, Obama's lead is 50 percent to 39 percent compared to 52 percent to 36 percent in the previous survey.

Obama is leading McCain 53 percent to 46 percent among likely voters in the final CNN/Opinion Research poll before Election Day. The poll was conducted Oct. 30 - Nov. 1 and has a margin of error of 3.5 points.

Barack Obama is leading John McCain 54 percent to 41 percent among likely voters with 4 percent undecided in a New York Times/CBS News poll conducted Oct. 28-31. The margin of error is 3 points.

Fifty one percent of voters say Obama would make the economy better as President compared to 29 percent for McCain. The two are statistically tied when it comes to who voters think will raise their taxes.

About one in five voters say they have already cast their ballot and they favored Obama by 57 percent to 38 percent.

Barack Obama is leading John McCain 50 percent to 42 percent among likely voters with 1 percent for Ralph Nader and 7 percent undecided in an Ipsos/McClatchy poll conducted Oct. 16-20. The margin of error is 3.5 percent.

As yesterday's Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll showed, the poll says "Obama's gained ground among voters across the board, even on issues where McCain still has an advantage and on some where the Republican usually would expect to be ahead." Obama leads McCain by 8 points on one of the favorite Republican themes - family values.

Voters favor Obama on handling jobs and the economy by 16 points and health care by 24 points. They still give McCain a 12 point edge on national security issues but that's down from margins of more than 20 points that he had in early polls. In any event, voters put more importance on the economy than national security by a 3-to-1 margin.

Other major polls from this week:

• Wall Street Journal/NBC News: Obama 53, McCain 42.
• Pew Research Center: Obama 52, McCain 38.
• New York Times/CBS News: Obama 54, McCain 43.

Barack Obama is widening his lead over John McCain, now running ahead of him 52 percent to 38 percent among registered voters with 10 percent undecided in a Pew Research Center poll conducted Oct. 16-19. The margin of error is 2 points. That's a 4 point gain from Pew's poll conducted Oct. 9-12. Obama's margin when only likely voters are included is 53 percent to 39 percent.

Pew says a "widespread loss of confidence in McCain appears to be the most significant factor in the race." Forty-one percent of voters see McCain as "having poor judgment" compared to 29 percent for Obama. Thirty-four percent say he is too old to be President, up 11 points from mid-September. Voters view Obama as the more inspiring candidate by 71 percent to 37 percent.

Obama leads McCain by 21 points when voters are asked who can best handle the economy, a gain of 12 points since mid-September. He now leads 48 percent to 42 percent on who can best handle Iraq, after trailing McCain on this issue by 7 points.

Barack Obama's favorability ratings have gone up from where he was before the first presidential debate while John McCain's have gone in the opposite direction, according to a New York Times/CBS News poll conducted Sept. 21-24 and again Oct. 17-19.

Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 43 percent to 26 percent with 25 percent undecided in the first sampling and now stands at 53 percent to 33 percent with 13 percent undecided. McCain's ratio was 36 percent to 35 percent with 25 percent undecided in September but now he is seen unfavorably by 45 percent and favorably by 36 percent with 16 percent undecided.

Twenty-one percent of voters said their opinion of Obama had changed for the better in the last two weeks compared to 14 percent who said it changed for the worse and most attributed their more positive view to his debate performance. Twenty-three percent said their opinion of McCain had changed for the worse compared to 12 percent who said it had improved, and most of those who said it had changed for the worse blamed his attacks on Obama.

Overall, if "leaners" are counted, Obama is leading McCain 54 percent to 43 percent compared to the 6 point margin he had in September.

Barack Obama leads John McCain 50 percent to 40 percent with 10 percent undecided in a Pew Research Center poll conducted Oct. 9-12. He led by 7 points in Pew's last poll in late September. Pew notes that the number of voters who say they will definitely not support McCain has risen from 37 percent in early August to 45 percent.

Voters say by 47 percent to 33 percent that they trust Obama more to handle the financial crisis and the economy with 20 percent saying that they trust either or neither. They are split at 48 percent to 47 percent on whether Obama has done a good job in explaining how he would handle the crisis, but for McCain, 67 percent said he did only a fair or poor job while 29 percent said he did an excellent or good job.

The other national polls this week:

• Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg: Obama 50, McCain 41.
• New York Times/CBS News: Obama 53, McCain 39.
• USA Today/Gallup: Obama 51, McCain 44.
• Washington Post/ABC News Obama 53, McCain 43.
• Newsweek: Obama 52, McCain 41.

Barack Obama is leading John McCain 53 percent to 39 percent among registered voters with 1 percent preferring someone else and 6 percent answering "depends" or undecided in a New York Times/CBS News poll conducted Oct. 10-13. The "depends/undecided" voters lean to Obama 54 percent to 41 percent. Obama's overall margin over McCain is 2 points less if Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr are factored into the choices. Obama had led by 3 points in this poll at the beginning of October.

Fifty percent of voters rate the economy as "very bad" and another 38 percent say it is "fairly bad." Eleven percent say it is fairly good and the number of those who said it was very good didn't even register 1 percent. Voters are confident by 58 percent to 41 percent margin about Obama's ability to make the right decisions on the current economic crisis and by 60 percent to 39 percent about making the right decisions regarding the economy in general. Fifty-one percent said they were not too confident or not at all confident McCain had the ability to make the right choices on the current economic crisis and 52 percent said they were not too confident or confident at all about McCain making the right decisions on the economy in general.

Barack Obama has opened up a double-digit lead in yet another poll, running ahead of John McCain by 53 percent to 43 percent among likely voters with 1 percent preferring someone else, 1 percent supporting neither and 2 percent undecided in a Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted Oct. 8-11. The margin of error is 3 points. That's a 6 point jump from the poll conducted Sept. 29. A Newsweek poll released over the weekend had Obama ahead 52 percent to 41 percent.

Obama's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 64 percent to 33 percent, a positive swing of 9 points since early September, while McCain stands at 52 percent to 45 percent, a negative swing of 16 points. At the same time, President Bush's approval rating is 23 percent, below former President Nixon's lowest, and one point away from the record low registered by Harry Truman in 1952. Fifty-one percent of registered voters believe McCain would lead the nation in the same direction as Bush.

The economy and voters' dim view of the direction of the country are clearly driving Obama's success so far. Ninety percent of voters say the country is heading in the wrong direction. Nine in 10 are worried about the country's economic direction, nearly seven in 10 are worried about their families own finances and 55 percent call the economy the top issue in the campaign. The number of Americans who feel they'll have enough money to carry them through retirement has fallen from 69 percent three years ago to 44 percent.

Registered voters trust Obama over McCain on the economy by 53 percent to 37 percent. They say he better understands their economic problems by 58 percent to 28 percent and they trust him more to help the middle class by 59 percent to 31 percent.

Barack Obama has jumped out to a 52 percent to 41 percent lead among registered voters with 1 percent preferring someone else and 6 percent undecided in a Newsweek poll conducted Oct. 8 - 9. The margin of error is 3.8 percent. The two were tied in its Sept. 10-11 poll. Obama's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 60 percent to 36 percent while MCain's are 51 percent to 45 percent.

Voters said by 53 percent to 43 percent they believe Obama has enough experience to be President. They say by 55 percent to 39 percent that Sarah Palin does not if she had to step into the office.

As the McCain campaign struggles to find its voice in terms of how hard, or not, to go on the attack against Obama, the poll said that 56 percent of voters who have seen McCain TV ads say they are too negative and 58 percent describe them as misleading or distorted. Twenty-nine percent called Obama's ads too negative and 36 percent said they were misleading or distorted.

We don't always post the daily tracking polls because they tend to be so incremental. However, Gallup today has Barack Obama opening a 50 percent to 42 percent lead in the surveying it did Sept. 25-27. The lead is just one point shy of his best showing this year, Gallup says. The survey period included the frenetic days when the Wall Street crisis reached a head, John McCain suspending his campaign and proposing postponement of the debates, plus one day of interviewing after the debates. A separate Gallup poll on just the debate itself declared Obama the winner by 12 points.

Rasmussen Report has Obama ahead 50 percent to 44 percent which Rasmussen also says is the biggest lead Obama has enjoyed in its daily tracking poll.

The Diageo/Hotline daily tracking poll had Obama ahead 47 percent to 42 percent.

Research 2000 puts Obama ahead 50 percent to 43 percent.

Barack Obama wanted the order of topics for the upcoming presidential debates to be changed so that foreign policy would come first so he could take on the challenge of showing his credentials in that area, not to mention setting up the last debate as the face-off over the economy which voters cite as the top issue in the campaign. Whether that first debate will go off as planned is in question because John McCain has asked for postponement until the bailout proposal to deal with the Wall Street crisis is worked out).

A Pew Research Center survey released today leaves no doubt what the public's priorities are. Americans say by 60 percent to 21 percent that the next President should focus on domestic rather than foreign policy.

When it does come to foreign policy issues Americans care about, the top three - cited by three-quarters or more of those polled - are protecting the U.S. from terrorist attacks, protecting American jobs and reducing dependence on imported energy. Issues like reducing the spread of AIDS, dealing with climate change, stopping acts of genocide, strengthening the United Nations, human rights, and solving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict all rank significantly lower, and interest in several has declined.

On the heels of a Washington Post/ABC News poll showing Barack Obama reclaiming the lead in the presidential race, a Fox News/Opinion Dynamics survey conducted Sept. 22-23 has Obama leading McCain 45 percent to 39 percent with 2 percent preferring someone else and 13 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 points.

Gallup: Obama 49, McCain 44

Rasmussen Reports: Obama 48, McCain 48

Research 2000: Obama 49, McCain 42

Diageo/Hotline: Obama 45, McCain 44

The race between John McCain and Barack Obama remains largely unchanged - it's close at Obama leading McCain 46 percent to 44 percent - but McCain has made more progress than Obama in changing voter attitudes about his candidacy and where he stands on issues, according to a Pew Research Center poll conducted Sept. 9-14. The horse-race figure reflects the views of registered voters, but when it is narrowed to likely voters the candidates are tied at 46 percent each. The margin of error is 2.5 points.

While Obama still bests McCain on handling the economy in the eyes of voters by 47 percent to 38 percent, Obama's number hasn't moved since July while McCain's rose 6 points. McCain gained 8 points on foreign policy putting him ahead of Obama 51 percent to 40 percent and 10 points on the issue of reducing the influence of lobbyists and special interests, thus cutting Obama's lead to 40 percent to 36 percent. One measure where McCain did not improve much was on those who believe he will continue the unpopular policies of President Bush. Voters say he will do that by 45 percent to 44 percent.

Pew also said that as far as key battleground states are concerned, McCain now ties Obama at 45 percent compared to Obama's 7 point lead before the conventions.

Only about a quarter of voters believe that, if elected, it is very likely that John McCain or Barack Obama will make the changes needed on Wall Street, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept.17. If you add the "somewhat likely" voters, half believe McCain will make the necessary changes and 44 percent say it is not very likely or not likely at all. Fifty-three percent in all say Obama will do what's necessary if the "somewhat likely" votes are included, and 42 percent say it is not very likely or not likely at all.

Sixty-four percent of voters say it is very or somewhat likely that the recent bank failures will have an impact on their personal finances while 32 percent say it is not very likely or not likely at all.

Our latest round-up of match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain updates 33 states, largely because of an outpouring of polls from American Research Group, and a bunch more from CNN/Time/Opinion Research and Rasmussen Reports. Also, check out CQ Politics' election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down. Also go to our Presidential Election Maps to see our calls and use our Scenario Builder to make your own.

• Florida: Obama and McCain are tied at 48 percent each among registered voters in a CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Sept. 14-16. The margin of error is 3.5 percent. A Fox News/Rasmussen Reports survey conducted Sept. 14 had McCain leading Obama 49 percent to 44 percent with 2 percent each for Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr and 3 percent undecided in. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. The two were tied in its last survey. McCain had stronger support among his party than Obama did among Democrats: 86 percent to 70 percent with 21 percent of Democrats saying they will vote for McCain. McCain also upped his lead over Obama by 2 points to 50 percent to 45 percent with 5 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Sept. 6-7. The margin of error was 3.1 percent. Obama's problem appeared to be that as white voters move out of the undecided camp, they were mostly headed for McCain. Obama was staying close because of his 7 point lead among Hispanic voters (13 percent of the sample) and 78 point lead among blacks (16 percent of the sample). Republicans have carried the state in four of the last five elections including, of course, the hotly-contested outcome in 2000 where the state was awarded to George Bush by a hair. CQ Politics' Election Forecast has "No Clear Favorite here.

While the impact of the conventions on the standings of Barack Obama and John McCain hardly had an earthquake effect on the campaign, McCain appeared to gain somewhat more than Obama largely because the GOP convention did more to solidify his base, according to a Gallup analysis.

McCain's support among liberal/moderate Republicans went up 7 points and among conservatives in the party by 3 points, while Obama gained 2 points each among liberal and moderate Democrats and 5 points among conservative Democrats. Among all registered voters, McCain showed a post-conventions gain of 3 points while Obama lost a point.

John McCain and Barack Obama are in a statistical dead heat with Obama leading 47 percent to 46 percent with 4 percent liking neither and 8 percent undecided in a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll conducted Sept. 6-8. The margin of error is 3.3 percent. Olbama had led by 3 points in this poll in August and by 6 in June and July. The number of McCain supporters who described themselves as excited jumped from 12 percent in August to 34 percent. That number also rose some for Obama, from 46 percent to 55 percent. Joseph Biden made less difference to the ticket in terms of whether voters were more or less likely to back the Democrats because of his selection with 58 percent saying it made no difference. But for Palin, a lesser 40 percent said it made no difference with 34 percent now more likely to vote for McCain and 25 percent less likely.

Yet another major poll has John McCain vaulting back into contention after falling behind Barack Obama in the wake of the Democratic convention. McCain leads Obama 49 percent to 47 percent with 3 percent expressing no opinion among likely voters in a Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted Sept. 5-7. The margin of error is 3 points. In the sample of registered voters, Obama led 47 percent to 46 percent with 4 percent expressing no opinion. Obama had led among likely voters in a pre-Democratic convention Post/ABC poll by 4 points and among registered voters by 6 points.

Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable numbers are 58 percent to 36 percent while McCain's are 59 percent to 36 percent. Sarah Palin's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio beats Joseph Biden's. She registers 58 percent to 28 percent to Biden's 51 percent to 29 percent.

Obama is favored by voters on the issue of the economy, named as their top concern, by 5 points. On Iraq, a distant second, McCain leads by 10 points. As he has all along, McCain has double-digit leads among voters when it comes to handling international affairs an an unexpected major crisis. Obama has his biggest lead on education. But Obama's leads in some of those categories have fallen since the last poll. He had led by 11 points on the economy in August and had been tied with McCain on Iraq. And the gap between him and McCain on international affairs and handling a crisis has widened in McCain's favor.

Two of the daily tracking polls show that John McCain got a bounce from the GOP convention and the presidential contest is again a tight race. Gallup's survey, which was conducted Sept. 4-6 and included two full days after the close of the convention, has McCain ahead 48 percent to 45 percent with 4 percent not sure. That's a slim point larger than the 2 percent margin of error. Barack Obama had led by as much as 8 points after the Democratic convention. The tracking poll released today by Rasmussen Reports, based on interviews conducted entirely after Sarah Palin's acceptance speech, shows the race at an exact tie, with John McCain and Barack Obama at 46 percent each. Last Tuesday, Obama had a 6 point lead in the Rasmussen poll. Forty-two percent of voters cite the economy as the top issue and Obama leads here by 34 points while among the 24 percent of voters who cite national security, McCain leads by 39 points. McCain leads by wide margins among voters who see fiscal and social issues as important, while Obama leads among those whose focus are domestic issues like Social Security or health care.

Now it's John McCain's turn. After Barack Obama got his post-convention bounce, opening up leads of 7 points or more, the Republican convention has helped McCain close the gap again. A CBS News poll conducted Sept. 1-3, before McCain's acceptance speech, has him tied with Obama at 42 percent with 12 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 points. CBS's poll after the Democratic convention put Obama up by 8 points.

The opening days of the Republican fest made some dent in the "enthusiasm" gap with the number of McCain supporters saying they were enthusiastic rising from 25 percent to 35 percent. Fifty-five percent of Obama supporters described themselves as enthusiastic but that was down from 67 percent in the last poll.

Some other notes:

• Independents are divided.
• Sixty-nine percent of former supporters of Hillary Clinton say they are backing Obama, up from 58 percent.
• Sixty-six percent of white evangelicals are backing McCain, up from 57 percent.

Our latest round-up of match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain updates Alaska and Indiana. Also, check out CQ Politics' election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down. Also go to our Presidential Election Maps to see our calls and use our Scenario Builder to make your own.

• Alaska: The choice of Gov. Sarah Palin as John McCain's running mate has clearly turned things around here. An Ivan Moore poll and others had this as a close race (in July, Moore put McCain ahead by only 2.5 points), but a survey conducted Aug. 30 - Sept. 2 now has McCain ahead 53.5 percent to 34.9 percent with 11.7 percent undecided. A Hays Research Group poll conducted Aug. 6-7 had Obama leading McCain 45 percent a to 40 percent with 10 percent. The margin of error was 4.9 percent. Republicans have carried this state in the last five elections and did so by 20 points or more except for 1992 when independent Ross Perot siphoned off GOP votes. CQ Politics' Election Forecast rates Alaska "Republican Favored."

The number of voters who have yet to make up their minds declined sharply in the past week, probably because the Democratic convention and John McCain's choice of a running mate addressed some of the concerns that voters had about each of them, according to a Gallup poll conducted Aug. 30-31. What Gallup calls the "up for grabs" vote fell from 30 percent to 21 percent.

In contrast to a CNN poll yesterday that had the presidential race as a dead heat, two polls today showed Barack Obama getting bounces of 7 and 8 points from the Democratic convention.

A CBS News poll conducted Aug. 29-31 put Obama ahead 48 percent to 40 percent lead with 2 percent saying they won't vote and 9 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. That compares to the 3 point lead Obama had before the Democratic convention. This was CBS' first poll that included the running mates of Obama and McCain, but more than 7 of 10 voters said of both tickets that the VP selections would make no difference in their choice.

A USA Today/Gallup poll released this afternoon had Obama ahead 50 percent to 43 percent compared to a 4 point lead before the convention. The margin of error is 2 points.

Gallup says the median increase for candidates after their conventions going back to 1964 has been 5 points, ranging from John Kerry's anti-bounce of minus one point to Bill Clinton's high of 16 points in 1992. Of course, the Republicans have not completed their convention and how that might affect the longevity of Obama's bounce is complicated by a variety of factors: the occurence this year of conventions that were immediately back-to-back and the Hurricane Gustav story causing the GOP conclave to be truncated.

Barack Obama is leading John McCain 48 percent to 42 percent with 4 percent favoring neither and 6 percent expressing no opinion in Gallup's daily tracking poll conducted Aug. 28-30. The margin of error is 2 percent. The interviewing period included both the immediate reaction to Obama's acceptance speech and John McCain's choice of Sarah Palin as his running mate.

The Democratic convention has bounced Barack Obama to an 8 point lead over John McCain in Gallup's daily tracking poll conducted Aug. 26-28. Obama leads McCain 49 percent to 41 percent with 1 percent preferring "other," 4 percent "neither," and 5 percent having "no opinion." The margin of error is 2 percent. Obama's largest lead in the tracking poll at any point since he clinched the nomination had been 9 points in late July. Going into the convention, he was polling 45 percent and was essentially tied with McCain. How long the predictable bounce will last is subject to some different factors this year: the combination of today's announcement of John McCain's running mate on the heels of the Democratic Convention and the fact that the GOP convention starts so soon after the Democrats.

The themes and issues Barack Obama hits in his acceptance speech tonight should be a good guide to what he and his campaign feels it still has to accomplish, and while a speech to a stadium packed with 75,000 partisans may not be the place to get down in the weeds about his policy positions, a Pew Research Center poll suggests he has work to do in the coming weeks in building public awareness of where he stands.

The survey says Americans know more about Obama's personal story than they do about those policy positions. Sixty-two percent know a lot or fair amount about his life, but when it comes to his foreign policy beliefs, 48 percent say they know a lot or fair amount about them, and 56 percent say they same about his economic positions.

John McCain's life story is about as well known as Obama's. He fares somewhat better than Obama on public awareness of his foreign policy stands (54 percent) and just below Obama about knowledge of his economic positions (also, 54 percent).

Looking just at independents, 55 percent say they know a lot or a fair amount about McCain's foreign policy positions compared to 42 percent for Obama. Obama and McCain come out about the same on awareness of independents about their economic positions.

A National Public Radio poll conducted in 19 battleground states has Barack Obama neck-and-neck with John McCain, leading him 46 percent to 45 percent with Ralph Nader drawing 2 percent and Libertarian Bob Barr 1 percent. Those numbers include "leaners." The poll was conducted Aug. 12-14.

Fifty-one percent of voters said McCain has been too negative in his campaign compared to 27 percent for Obama.

The poll also tested voters on how they viewed the candidates across a range of issues and characteristics. On the economy, considered the top issue by most voters, Obama had a 47 percent to 42 percent lead. Here are the areas where they registered their biggest differences:

• Fifty percent of voters think Obama says what people want to hear rather than what he believes compared to 34 percent for McCain. This comports with most other polls.
• When it comes to "bringing the right kind of change," Obama leads McCain 52 percent to 37 percent.
• Voters believe Obama is "too risky" compared to McCain by 51 percent to 38 percent.
• McCain is seen as the stronger leader by 50 percent to 40 percent and voters say he "has what it takes to be president" by a 51 percent to 40 percent margin over Obama
• McCain leads Obama 52 percent to 42 percent on his approach to Iraq and 54 percent to 37 percent on Afghanistan. There is an odd disconnect here between the national findings on the Iraq issue and the results in the state-by-state general election match-ups where voters who care most about Iraq as a campaign issue tend to favor Obama.

John McCain and Barack Obama are in a statistical dead heat with Obama leading 45 percent to 43 percent in a Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll conducted Aug. 15-18. The margin of error is 3 points. Obama led in this poll in June by 12 points.

There has been much written and talked about regarding Obama's inability to pull away from McCain despite a political environment that's challenging for the Republicans, and some of the state-by-state polls we've been reporting show a similar result. (See today's post on North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Minnesota). A Gallup analyst has a piece today assessing Obama's supposed "under-performance" in the polls.

That being said, both men face obstacles:

• The poll found far more voters see McCain as having the right experience to be President and a third harboring questions about McCain's patriotism.
• Obama leads McCain among voters citing the economy as the top issue, his uspporters are far more enthusiastic than McCain's, and independents are tilting towards him.

Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio now stands at 48 percent to 35 percent compared to 59 percent to 37 percent in June. McCain's have stayed about the same.

"All the negative attacks from the McCain campaign seem to have been paying off," said Times Poll Director Susan Pinkus.

Barack Obama is leading John McCain 47 percent to 42 percent with 9 percent undecided in a Quinnipiac University survey conducted Aug 12-17. The margin of error is 2.5 percent and the poll includes "leaners." That compares to the 9 point lead Obama held in Quinnipiac's mid-July poll. Only 20 percent of Obama supporters and 17 percent of those backing McCain say they might change their minds before Election Day. Independent voters, who were split in the last poll, now lean towards the Democrats 45 percent to 39 percent.

On top issues in the campaign, Obama leads McCain 61 percent to 30 percent on the war in Iraq (cited as most important by 16 percent), 49 percent to 41 percent on the economy (cited as most important by 52 percent) and 66 percent to 24 percent on health care (cited as most important by 10 percent). McCain is dominant on the terrorism issue (cited as most important by 9 percent), with voters trusting him more than Obama by 76 percent to 19 percent and on dealing with illegal immigration (cited as most important vby 6 percent), where McCain is preferred 64 percent to 23 percent.

The weekly Economist/YouGov poll conducted Aug. 11-13 has Barack Obama in a statistical dead heat with John McCain at 41 percent to 40 percent with 4 percent preferring "other," 12 percent undecided and 2 percent saying they will not vote. The margin of error is 4 points. Last week's poll had Obama with a 3 point edge.

Today we update the key states of Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina Nevada and Florida in our match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain. We've also updated Kansas which, predictably, is not even close.

• Pennsylvania: Obama is leading McCain 44 percent to 36 percent with 4 percent preferring other and 16 percent undecided in a Franklin & Marshall College poll conducted Aug. 4-10. The margin of error is 3.9 percent. The last time F & M polled on this, in February, McCain led by a point. Three-quarters of voters are certain about their choice and the rest still deciding. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 43 percent to 29 percent compared to McCain's 39 percent to 32 percent. Forty-six percent of voters said they would be concerned if McCain was elected and 50 percent said they would not. Forty-six percent cited his views on policy issues (most believe he would continue President Bush's economic and foreign policies) and 50 percent were not concerned. Fifty-one percent of voters said they would be concerned if Obama was elected , with 39 percent citing lack of experience, 30 percent citing his policy stands and 12 percent believing he was "wishy-washy" and trying to please everyone. As in most national polls, Obama tops McCain 55 percent to 32 percent for best understanding the concern of ordinary Americans while McCain wins out 60 percent to 22 percent on experience and 53 percent to 29 percent on handling the war on terrorism. Obama has a big lead among independents and women, and McCain has the edge with Protestants and fundamentalist Christians. A Quinnipiac University poll conducted July 23-29 had Obama ahead 49 percent to 42 percent with 8 percent undecided. The margin of error was 2.7 percent. In its last poll, Obama had been up by 12 points. Nineteen percent of Obama supporters say they might yet change their minds compared to 24 percent for McCain. The biggest demographic gaps include Obama's 11 point lead among women, his 91 percent to 1 percent lead among blacks and his 23 point lead among voters under 34. Quinnipiac attributes McCain's gains on Obama to his energy policy "being more in line in Pennsylvania" and Obama's continued struggle among white blue collar workers. Strategic Vision conducted a poll July 25-27 that had Obama ahead 49 percent to 40 percent with 11 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 23 had Obama ahead 47 percent to 42 percent over McCain. The margin of error was 4 points. Four percent preferred "other" and 6 percent were undecided. Fifty-eight percent of voters viewed Obama favorably as did 61 percent for McCain. The Los Angeles Times recently had a piece on McCain's effort to make inroads in Pennsylvania by stressing his bipartisanship. This key state was won by Democrats in the last two elections, but by 4 points or less each time.

Thanks to a solidifying GOP base and gains among white working class voters, John McCain has also but erased the lead Barack Obama has been holding in the Pew Research Center's polling. In a survey conducted July 31-Aug. 10 among registered voters, Obama now holds a bare 46 percent to 43 percent edge over McCain with the margin of error at 2 percent. Obama had led by 8 points in June, which was down to 5 points in July.

Compared to June, McCain made a gain of 5 points among Republicans pushing his level of support in the party up to 87 percent compared to 83 percent for Obama. He increased his margin over Obama among men by 5 points, among voters with a high school education or less by 7 points, voters earning between $50,000 and $74,999 by 8 points and those making under $30,000 by 6 points, and among white evangelicals by 7 points.

Pew says McCain has also "made gains on his leadership image. An even greater percentage of voters than in June now see McCain as the candidate who would use the best judgment in a crisis, and an increasing percentage see him as the candidate who can get things done."

A CBS News poll conducted July 31-August 5 shows pretty much the same results as other recent national polls by major organizations (not including the daily tracking polls): Barack Obama leads John McCain 45 percent to 39 percent with 13 percent undecided, and a margin of error of 3 points. That tracks with a Time poll and an AP-Ipsos poll conducted in roughly the same time period that had Obama ahead by 5 and 6 points respectively. The CBS figures are the same that they were in its poll last month as was the case with the Time poll. (Columnist David Brooks of the New York Times took a crack the other day at trying to explain why there has been so little movement for Obama).

Barack Obama is leading John McCain 46 percent to 41 percent in a Time Magazine poll conducted July 31-Aug. 4. The margin of error is 3 percent. That's the same size lead Obama held in this poll in June.

Time says that the survey indicates some trouble signs for Obama. He does well on "atmospherics" such as being seen as more likeable (besting McCain 65 percent to 20 percent), on which candidate would really bring change (Obama leads 61 percent to 17 percent) and on who understands voters' concerns the best, (Obama leads 48 percent to 35 percent). But on specific issues, Obama only leads McCain 43 percent to 39 percent on the economy, down a point from June, and McCain is seen as the candidate better equipped to manage the Iraq war by 51 percent to 36 percent. McCain also leads when it comes to voter confidence in who could better handle the war on terror, by 56 percent to 29 percent.

Obama also enjoys an "enthusiasm" advantage, as other polls have shown. Forty-nine percent of his supporters describe themselves as enthusiastic compared to 21 percent of McCain supporters. Twenty-seven percent of Republicans say they are "not very" or "not at all" enthusiastic about McCain while only 10 percent of Democrats say that of Obama.

By a whopping 76-11 margin, respondents said they've heard more about Obama than John McCain recently, and 48 percent (51 percent among independents) said they've heard "too much" about Obama. And, the pollsters write: "by a slight, but statistically significant margin - 22% to 16% - people say that recently they have a less rather than more favorable view of the putative Democratic nominee."

There is some good news for Obama here: Americans view his advertising as positive messages about himself rather than attacks on his opponent (38-13 percent), while a similar number view McCain's ads as mostly negative attacks on Obama (31 percent to 19 percent).

The telephone survey was done July 28 - August 3 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percent.

Barack Obama leads John McCain 47 percent to 41 percent in an AP-Ipsos poll conducted July 31-Aug. 4. The margin of error is 3.1 percent. McCain leads by 10 points among white voters and runs evenly with Obama among men. Obama leads by 13 points among women, 30 points among voters under the age of 34, and by 55 points among blacks, Hispanics and other minorities.

Today we update Florida, Massachusetts and Washington state in our state match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain.

• Florida: A SurveyUSA poll conducted conducted Aug. 1-3 is the first in a batch of recent polls that has McCain ahead beyond the margin of error. McCain leads Obama 50 percent to 44 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.8 percent. Unlike a lot of other states, McCain has a 7 point lead among women. Obama leads by almost 2-to-1 among voters under 34 who made up 17 percent of the sample, but McCain leads by at least 12 points in all other age groups. McCain leads 57 percent to 38 percent among white voters (73 percent of the sample) while Obama leads 84 percent to 16 percent among blacks (11 percent) and 48 percent to 42 percent among Hispanics (13 percent). Fifty-eight percent of voters cited the economy as the top issue in the campaign and they split evenly between McCain and Obama. Iraq was named by only 8 percent and Obama led McCain there by 23 points. A Quinnipiac University poll conducted July 23-29 had Obama leading 46 percent to 44 percent with 7 percent undecided. The margin of error was 2.8 percent. While Floridians seemed split in this poll about which candidate has the better energy policy, they support by 60 percent to 33 percent President Bush's call for more offshore oil drilling, which McCain has also advocated. About one-fifth of Obama voters and 16 percent of McCain supporters said they might change their mind before the election. The differences between the two among men and women was not huge, but McCain leads among white voters 53 percent to 39 percent and Obama among black voters 89 percent to 2 percent. Obama's edge among independents has fallen from 10 points to 5 points. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted July 22 had Obama ahead of McCain 46 percent to 45 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain led by 7 points last month. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio was 51 percent to 47 percent and McCain's was 60 percent to 39 percent. An American Research Group poll conducted July 19-21 had McCain ahead of Obama 47 percent to 45 percent with 8 percent undecided, a difference within the 4 point margin of error. McCain had led by 5 last month. Republicans have carried the state in four of the last five elections including, of course, the hotly-contested outcome in 2000 where the state was awarded to George Bush by a hair.

Despite Barack Obama’s weakness during the Democratic nomination fight among blue collar white voters, he holds a 47 percent to 37 percent lead over John McCain among low-wage white workers although 16 percent say they have no opinion, support someone else or do not plan to vote, according to a Washington Post, Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation and Harvard University conducted June 18 to July 7. (Story, poll).

The survey of low-wage workers - the first installment was yesterday - found that Obama leads McCain 58 percent to 28 percent among the overall group, who comprise 22 percent of American adults. The sample included workers 18 to 64 years old who put in at least 30 hours a week but earned $27,000 or less last year. Thiry-eight percent described themselves as moderate, 28 percent as conservative and 27 percent as liberal.

Pollsters have done a number of measures about how much Barack Obama accomplished politically with the trip abroad that was meant to deal with questions about his foreign policy credentials and is up to the job of commander-in-chief. CNN/Opinion Research said he didn't get a bump in general, and a Gallup survey conducted July 25-27 today says that, in specific, public opinion did not change on this question despite the trip. And John McCain still reins dominant on both counts.

Gallup says Americans by a 52 percent to 41 percent margin say Obama is up to the job of commander-in-chief compared to a 55 percent to 40 percent in June. Same goes with public views of how good a job Americans think Obama would do on the issue of the Middle East, terrorism, Iraq and Afghanistan. Fifty-one percent said he would do a good job compared to 48 percent, and that is one point tighter than June when the numbers were 49 percent to 45 percent.

Seventy-six percent say McCain would do best as commander-in-chief compared to 52 percent for Obama, and 67 percent give the top marks on the terrorism issue to McCain compared to 45 percent for Obama. Iraq is a closer call, no doubt because a majority of Americans now say invading was a mistake. Fifty-three percent say McCain would do a better job compared to 48 percent for Obama.

Obama's counterbalance is his strength against McCain on domestic issues, something highlighted also in a Pew Research Center poll yesterday. Americans say Obama would do a better job on the economy by 54 percent to 43 percent and on energy issues and gasoline prices by 50 percent to 39 percent.

We don't always report the daily tracking polls on the presidential races because on most days the changes are incremental. But we will note today that after opening a 9 point lead in the Gallup tracking poll released July 27, the pollster has the race back to a dead heat with Obama ahead 45 percent to 44 percent, 5 percent liking neither and 7 percent expressing no opinion. The margin of error is 2 percent. Rasmussen Reports has Obama ahead in its daily poll 45 percent to 43 percent.

Thirty percent of conservative Democrats say they'll vote for John McCain over Barack Obama, according to a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted during the two weeks ending July 24. McCain would pick up 19 percent of white Democrats and 15 percent of those over 50. Forty-one percent of those identifying themselves as conservative Democrats have a favorable view of McCain compared to 67 percent who say that of Obama. Another figure that shows an Obama weakness is that among Democratic senior citizens, his support is 74 percent.

In all, Rasmussen said 43 percent of Democrats considered themselves liberal, 37 percent said they were moderate and 18 percent were conservative. Ninety percent of liberal Democrats give Obama good marks but only 23 percent view McCain favorably.

Barack Obama has mused to reporters that he "wouldn't be surprised" if his eight day trip abroad might result in a dip in the polls, with Americans worried about economic conditions at home. He may be on to something, although not by any overwhelming numbers. Gallup says that in a survey conducted July 25-27 only 35 percent of respondents saw the trip positively, 26 percent saw it as a total negative and 39 percent had no opinion. Democrats were 53 percent to 8 percent positive about it, independents 31 percent to 28 percent positive (the margin of error was 3 points), and Republicans 50 percent to 18 percent negative. The Republicans' presumed standarbearer, John McCain, had labeled the trip a "premature victory lap."

Media coverage, which included the three network news anchors along for the ride, had also come into focus on the trip with criticism that it not only was lavishing too much attention on Obama but was too adoring. Thiry-nine percent of all voters in the poll thought it was unfairly positive and 39 percent said it was about right. During the period, 46 percent said coverage of McCain was about right, 32 percent said it was unfairly negative and 12 percent unfairly positive.

Barack Obama's lead over John McCain in Gallup's daily tracking poll has now notched up to 9 points - 49 percent to 40 percent with 5 percent saying neither and 4 percent expressing no opinion. The margin of error is 2 percent. The Rasmussen Reports daily tracking survey has a somewhat different view, with Obama ahead 46 percent to 41 percent, which is no change since yesterday for Obama and up a point for McCain.

Rasmussen Reports' daily tracking poll shows a bounce for Barack Obama, no doubt aided by the saturation coverage of his trip abroad that has all but eclipsed John McCain. After being tied with McCain four days ago, Obama now leads 46 percent to 40 percent with a 2 point margin of error. His advantage over McCain is the same 6 points when "leaners" towards both men are counted.

Gallup's daily tracking numbers agree.Obama has opened his biggest lead of the month with a 48 percent to 41 percent advantage over McCain with 5 percent siding with neither and 6 percent expressing no opinion. The survey was conducted July 23-25 and has a 2 point margin of error.

Fox News/Opinion Dynamics has weighed in with its latest poll and it shows a much tighter race than the Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll from yesterday. Barack Obama leads John McCain 41 percent to 40 percent and a fairly high 19 percent undecided. (When Ralph Nader and "other" are eliminated, Obama's lead is 3 points, which is exactly the margin of error). The survey was conducted July 22-23. Last month, Obama led by 4 points and the undecideds were 14 percent. The Journal/NBC poll, conducted July 18-21, had Obama ahead 47 percent to 41 percent.

The major target of opportunity is among independents. Those that have made a choice, for now, split 34 percent to 32 percent for Obama but but 34 percent are still undecided.

The poll asked a couple of questions similar to the Journal/NBC poll on the excitement factor of each man's supporters and how "scared" a voter would be by an Obama McCain victory. Twenty-three percent of all voters would be enthusiastic about Obama as the next President and 44 percent of Democrats felt that way. Thirteen percent of all voters felt that way about McCain and that included 29 percent of Republicans. On the flip side, 19 percent were "scared" of an Obama presidency compared to 14 percent for McCain. In the Journal/NBC poll, 44 percent of Obama supporters were excited about their candidate compared to 14 percent for McCain among his supporters, and voters said by a 55 percent to 35 percent margin that Obama was the riskier choice.

Barack Obama has gained on John McCain in all three categories of states - blue (Democratic), purple (competitive) and red (Republican) since he clinched the Democratic nomination in June, according to a Gallup comparison of data it collected between March 7-June 1 and June2-July 20. His lead in blue states has gone up from 13 points to 16 points, by 6 points in purple states and he has cut McCain's advantage in red states by 3 points. When it came to the competitive states, Obama picked up 2 points while McCain dropped 4 points.

Barack Obama has put a bit of breathing room between himself and John McCain in Gallup's latest daily tracking poll conducted July 18-20, a survey that included two days of news about Obama abroad. Obama leads 47 percent to 41 percent with 6 percent choosing neither and 6 percent expressing no opinion. The margin of error is 2 points. Gallup notes that this matches his largest lead to date.

Barack Obama leads John McCain by 50 percent to 42 percent in the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted July 10-13. The margin of error is 3 points. That compares to a 4 point lead in mid-June after Obama clinched the Democratic nomination and a 7 point lead in May. Asked to rate both candidates on 17 issues, the poll said Obama consistently came out ahead except on social issues, where he and McCain were about even, and terrorism, where voters preferred McCain by points. The top three issues chosen as "extremely important" by voters were the economy (50 percent), gasoline prices (48 percent) and Iraq (42 percent). On the economy, voters trusted Obama over McCain by a 54 percent to 35 percent margin

The public perceptions of where Barack Obama and John McCain have changed since February, when they were in the thick of the primary season, Gallup says. The change has been sharper in McCain's case. In February, only 30 percent of voters thought McCain was too conservative; now, 40 percent do. The number of voters who think his views are "about right" has dropped from 42 percent to 37 percent and those who think he's too liberal fell from 20 percent to 15 percent. Those that thought Obama too conservative amounted only to 8 percent in February and 9 percent now, those who considered his views about right have dropped from 47 percent to 43 percent, and those regarding him as too liberal have risen from 37 to 40 percent.

Looking at it by political affiliation, 60 percent of Republicans regard McCain's views as about right, a slight decrease from February while 68 percent of Democrats feel that about Obama, a 10 point increase from five months ago. The number of independents holding that view of McCain fell from 42 percent to 34 percent, and in Obama's case, from 49 percent to 44 percent.

Republicans seeing Obama as too liberal rose from 65 percent to 75 percent and Democrats seeing McCain as too conservative rose from 43 percent to 57 percent. As for independents, those who saw Obama as too liberal rose from 33 percent to 36 percent and McCain as too conservative went up from 33 percent to 41 percent.

The survey was conducted June 15-19.

Our round-up of state match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain today updates Wisconsin and adds North Dakota. Good news in both places for Obama who has gone from a dead heat with McCain in Wisconsin to an 11 point lead and is running even with him in North Dakota, which has been a rock-ribbed Republican state.

• Wisconsin: Obama has opened up a 50 percent to 39 percent lead over McCain after holding only a 2 point lead a month ago, according to a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted July 8. Ten percent were undecided and the margin of error is 4.5 percent. Both men have high favorability ratings - Obama at 61 percent and McCain at 57 percent. Twenty-eight percent believe McCain is too old to be President and 40 percent say Obama is too inexperienced (50 percent reject that view). By 58 percent to 35 percent, voters want the next President to concentrate on getting U.S. troops home from Iraq rather than having the goal of winning the war. Two previous polls also had Obama ahead here. A Quinnipiac University/Washington Post/Wall Street Journal survey conducted June 17-24 put Obama in the lead by 52 percent to 39 percent, helped by a 13 point edge among independents. The margin of error was 2.5 percent. A SurveyUSA poll, conducted June 13-16, had Obama leading McCain 52 percent to 43 percent with 6 percent undecided, according to. The margin of error is 4.3 percent. Obama has a 23 point lead among women and a 20 point lead among voters under 34. Democrats have carried the state in the last five elections, but by less than one point in 2004 and 2000.