Results tagged “debates” from David Corn

McCain Asks for a Time-Out; Obama Says, Play On

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There's no crying in baseball. And there's no time-outs in presidential campaigns. Yet John McCain is asking for that. On Tuesday afternoon, he called for putting off the first scheduled presidential debate this Friday so he can suspend campaigning, head to Washington, and work on the financial bailout package.

This is a guy who's missed a ton of votes in the Senate throughout his presidential campaign and who just days ago called for shoving the current mess on to the lap of a commission. Actually, given that the world doesn't stop for crises--and that sometimes there's more than two or three items on a president's radar screen--this week would be a pretty good test for a candidate. He has to prep for a debate and participate in bailout deliberations.

In a brief--very brief--statement, McCain said the nation must "set politics aside." He invoked 9/11 and the coming together that occurred following that attack. "We must show that kind of patriotism now," he declared. But why is postponing the debate patriotic? And how long should the delay be? If Congress is going to get this package right, it could take weeks. Is McCain suggesting no debates transpire for that period of time?

And how about this for an idea? If McCain is too busy to show up on Friday night, perhaps he could send Sarah Palin. And Obama could dispatch Joe Biden. That would at least be a true test of their ability to fill in.

By the way, after McCain made his announcement, the Obama campaign sent out this note:

At 8:30 this morning, Senator Obama called Senator McCain to ask him if he would join in issuing a joint statement outlining their shared principles and conditions for the Treasury proposal and urging Congress and the White House to act in a bipartisan manner to pass such a proposal. At 2:30 this afternoon, Senator McCain returned Senator Obama's call and agreed to join him in issuing such a statement. The two campaigns are currently working together on the details.

That's a mature way to handle this situation. In a subsequent appearance before reporters, Obama said that when he and McCain talked at 2:30 on Wednesday afternoon, McCain told him he was considering whether they ought to delay the debate. Obama informed the reporters that he thought McCain was "mulling" it over. But after the call, McCain, without any further discussion with Obama, went public with his proposed time-out. How patriotic.

"I think we should continue to have the debate," Obama said. "....We've both got big planes...They can get us from Washington to Mississippi pretty quickly."

A Clean and Even Start for McCain and Obama

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MSNBC's First Read put out a good guide to the starting place for the titanic clash between Barack Obama and John McCain:

About two months ago, we unveiled our early look at the electoral map. And this being the second official day of the general election, now's as good a time as any to see where we stand in the McCain vs. Obama race.

Base Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, MD, MA, NY, RI, VT (153 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: ME, NJ, MN, OR, WA (47 votes)

Toss-up: CO, FL, IA, MI, NV, NM, NH, OH, PA, VA, WI (138 votes)

Lean McCain: AR, GA, IN, LA, MS, MO, MT, NE, NC, ND (84 votes)

Base McCain: AL, AK, AZ, ID, KS, KY, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (116 votes)

While both McCain and Obama get to 200 when adding up their base and lean states, it's clear to see that Obama has an early edge with the map. Not only does he have a stronger base than McCain does (153 votes vs. 116), but he also has more potential pick-up opportunities. When you add toss-up and "Lean McCain," Obama has the potential for another 222 votes outside his favored states. By comparison, McCain's toss-up and "Lean Obama" comes to 185. Of course, potential sometimes means just that -- potential. At the end of the day, Obama will likely win few, if any, of those Lean McCain states. But his reach right now seems much longer than McCain's.

It is indeed interesting that each candidate comes out of the gate with exactly 200 electoral votes from their best states. (You need 270 to win.) And in a CBS News poll out today, Obama leads McCain, 48 to 42 percent in a national survey, which is relatively close. It's always better to be ahead than behind, but what will matter on Election Day is not either candidate's national lead, but how they perform in those "lean" and "toss-up" states. As we've seen in the Democratic primaries, an election in any given state can trend far from the national numbers. Though Obama generally maintained an edge over Hillary Clinton in national polls during the primaries, the results in some states varied greatly from the national average (with each Democrat occasionally whupping the other).

It ain't going out on a limb to say that when the overall trends for the general election are in the Dems' favor McCain can still win by playing hard and tight in a few critical states. He does not have to buck the national tide from sea to shining sea; he has to do it in spots.

Still, there's something rather poetic about a clean and even start to the general election. In the past day, Obama and McCain have discussed holding joint town hall meetings or Lincoln-Douglas-style debates. How grand that would be. I've always thought that rather than mount formal and stuffy debates, we ought to put the two nominees in a room with a television camera and ask them to talk. How they handle each other, how they ask questions, how they respond to questions, how they hold themselves--all that would be useful information for voters. If either talked too long, interrupted too much, avoided issues, relied on spin rather than substance, rudely violated the basic rules of the event, he or she would risk the wrath of voters. So I say, let 'er rip: McCain and Obama, one table, two chairs, a set of television cameras, no moderators, no YouTube or email questions--and the American public watching. That would be Must See TV.

Will the GOP debate in Des Moines this afternoon and the Democratic face-off tomorrow in Iowa--the final candidate get-togethers before Iowans caucus--be free-for-alls? Each will be the last time the aspirants have the opportunity to directly challenge rivals before voters start to vote. One can make the case that Hillary Clinton, say, should go for the jugular and slam Barack Obama before he surges past her. Or...that she shouldn't. After all, she's a more sympathetic figure when she's being attacked. And will John Edwards and/or Obama take a powerful swing at her jaw and see if it is made of glass? Remember, though, Iowans tend not to like dustups, and they sometimes do punish candidates who go too negative.

As for the GOP debate, I previewed it here and wondered if it could turn into a theological smackdown, given the recent religious tussle between Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee. Democrats can only pray that the two get into a nasty fight over whether or not Mormons believe that Jesus was the brother of Satan?

Meanwhile, Rudy Giuliani will have to try to address his slipping poll numbers. He's still ahead nationally, but a Washington Post/ABC News poll released yesterday shows Giuliani losing almost one quarter of his support among likely Republican voters in the last month--with Huckabee more than doubling his following and moving into second place. (Romney ticked up a few points, and the two disappointing senators--Fred Thompson and John McCain--each lost about a quarter of their support.)

UPDATE: There were no explosions--theological or otherwise--at the GOP debate this afternoon. In fact, it was rather sedate. I explain here.

Just two days ago, I suggested that Giuliani's support had nowhere to go but down. That's what's happening. And there's still room for further deterioration. At least so says a former Giuliani business associate. This person, a Republican who's not supporting anyone in the race, tells me that he believes Giuliani's consulting firm may be the weakest of the several Achilles heels on the Body Giuliani:

The public still doesn't know all the stuff there is to know about Giuliani--especially his business. This is his general business model: pay me $10 million and you get to say you know me. That's what he does. And I think most Americans are going to think this is kind of shifty and not exactly right. And they're not going to go for his bare-knuckles approach to...just about everything.

And then there's his wife. This person says that Judith Nathan Giuliani sat in on every business meeting he attended with Giuliani. She didn't say anything. She just was there. It was "a little creepy," says this source.

As I noted, those nice Iowans usually don't fancy nasty political attacks. But desparate times lead to desparate measures--and every leading GOP candidate, save Huckabee, has plenty of reason to feel pretty desperate these days.