I've been wondering if the Sonia Sotomayor confirmation hearings, like Barack Obama's victory last November, signal an end to the culture wars--and a strategic setback for the right. Then I received this email from Ruy Teixeira:

So why are all these culture wars attacks on Sonia Sotomayor going nowhere?  Here's what I argue in my new report, The Coming End of the Culture Wars.
 
Looking back on Barack Obama's historic victory in 2008, culture wars issues not only had a very low profile in the campaign, but where conservatives did attempt to raise them, these issues did them little good. Indeed, conservatives were probably more hurt than helped by such attempts—witness the effect of the Sarah Palin nomination.
 
Attempts to revive the culture wars have been similarly unsuccessful since the election. Sarah Palin's bizarre trajectory, culminating in her surprise resignation from the Alaska governorship, has only made culture war politics appear even more out of touch. And culture warriors' shrill attacks on Supreme Court nominee Sonia Sotomayor have conspicuously failed to turn public opinion against her.
 
Is this just a temporary breathing spell in the culture wars due to the sudden spike in concern about other issues, first Iraq, then the economy, or is a fundamental shift in our politics taking place? I believe the latter is the case since, as this report establishes, ongoing demographic shifts have seriously eroded the mass base for culture wars politics and will continue to erode this base in the future. That means that the advantage conservatives can gain from culture wars politics will steadily diminish and, consequently, so will conservatives' incentive to engage in such politics.

In other words, there are fewer folks these days obsessing about gay marriage and abortion and feeling threatened by the legacies of 1960s. Rick Perlstein has a similar take on this, but from a different angle. He notes that conservative elites, gazing upon the unwashed anti-intellectuals who were at the center of the Republican campaign last fall--Sarah Palin and Joe the Plumber--feel, well, embarrassed. And they're sick of these folks and their followers, perhaps realizing that this group is, as Teixeira contends, a declining population slice.

In politics, it's always perilous to pronounce a last hurrah. But as the Senate GOPers question Sotomayor about guns, gay marriage and other issues dear to their hearts and their shrinking base, their lukewarm efforts do have a retro feel to them. (Talk about retro: Senator Tom Coburn at one point said to Sotomayor, "You have lots of 'splaining to do".) It seems that time--and politics--is passing them by.

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I'm still looking for signs that President Barack Obama's nomination of Sonia Sotomayor to the Supreme Court will split the right. Earlier, I reported that conservative strategist Grover Norquist was happy with Obama's choice because it has united conservatives in opposition. Longtime rightwing poohbah Richard Viguerie has said the same thing, and he's been calling for an anti-Sotomayor crusade. But so far Senate Republicans and Michael Steele, chair of the GOP, have refrained from beating any anti-Sotomayor drums. And that means Norquist, Viguerie and the conservatives could end up being disappointed if Senate GOPers decide not to go after the first Latina nominated to the highest court.

In an email, I asked Norquist if he thought the Senate Republicans share his enthusiasm for opposing her. His response surprised me a little. He wrote:

It's Sotomayor Mania!

I'm watching Tom Fitton of Judicial Watch being grilled by David Shuster on MSNBC for claiming that Judge Sonia Sotomayor would put her "feelings" above the law. Shuster demands proof of that. Fitton refers to when she once said that a "Latina woman with the richness of her experience would more often than not reach a better conclusion than a white male who hasn't lived that life." Fitton accuses Sotomayor of racism. And other conservatives are latching on to this quote to denounce President Barack Obama's selection of Judge Sotomayor to succeed Justice David Souter on the Supreme Court. Fitton also is saying, "Conservatives...expect Republicans to oppose this nomination in large numbers."

Well, they can expect all they want, but....Elsewhere I note that the Sotomayor pick could lead to a split on the right. Obama has handed Senate Republicans a tough choice: they can attack Sotomayor, the first potential Latina Supreme Court justice, and risk alienating Hispanic voters (and possibly women, too), or they can yield to Obama and tick off social conservatives who want blood. What to do?

One sign of this dilemma was the first reaction from the Republican Party. On Monday morning, the GOP zapped out a press release noting that when Howard Dean was Democratic Party chair, he immediately blasted the Supreme Court nominations of John Roberts and Samuel Alito Jr. But, the release noted, Michael Steele, the current GOP chair, was not prejudging Sotomayor and was now calling for "thoughtful discussion" of her judicial record. So here was Steele using the moment to proclaim, "Hey, I'm no bombthrower."

That might help Steele, given that he's developed the reputation of a shoot-from-the-hip politico. But such let's-be-reasonable rhetoric must not hearten Tom Fitton and other conservatives ready for an ideological charge against Sotomayor. They want a fight. As of this early moment, there's no sign their Republican pals will give them that.

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Supreme Court Justice David Souter announces he's retiring, and Chris Matthews thanks the News Gods--literally. And it's another round of Pundits Gone Wild. I did my bit on Hardball. But the clip below cut off the second topic in this segment: Sarah Palin hanging out with biker-dudes. Too bad, Matthews tried hard to talk about her sex appeal without directly mentioning her sex appeal--while acknowledging that was what he was doing. He walked a fine line. And once again, Palin is the cable news gift that keeps on giving.

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