I've been in Chicago covering Supersaturated Tuesday from the Obama election night celebration. Here's the report I filed for MotherJones.com:

By the time that Super Tuesday finally arrived, the mystery was long gone. The day that had loomed for so long had lost its melodramatic make-or-break status for the Democrats. Hours before the vote-counting began, the top strategists for Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama were pitching the same line: the results would not be decisive and whoever ended up the winner would walk away with merely a small edge in delegates. And as the vote tallies started to come in, both campaigns declared non-defeat. That is, they each claimed to have done well. "Encouraging results," Mark Penn, Clinton's chief strategist said. "We're having a very strong night," said David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager. Both were right.

The two campaigns had plenty of data to spin as the results materialized. Clinton triumphed in California (by an overwhelming margin), Massachusetts (where a big turnout in women negated that Kennedy magic), Arizona, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Arkansas. Obama won in Alabama, Alaska, Connecticut, Georgia, Illinois, Delaware, Colorado, Kansas, Minnesota, North Dakota, Utah, Idaho, and Missouri. Last-minute deciders, Penn said, went for Clinton. "Momentum is turning," he insisted. Plouffe noted that Obama was competitive in regions across the nation, that he won the caucus states (showing the campaign's organizational talent), and that he captured states that did not permit independents to vote (Delaware and Connecticut). Clinton was the Queen of California. Obama was the Master of Missouri.

But all that really mattered was the final delegate count (which was not easy to calculate in the hours after the polls shut down but was likely to be close)--and the fact that neither candidate was knocked out of the race. Despite the wipeout in California, Obama's senior aides appeared pleased, as they spoke with reporters at his election night celebration in Chicago. Pre-election polls had shown him trailing in most Super Tuesday states, and their goal had been to survive the day. They did. "The nominating battle will continue well past today's voting," Howard Wolfson, Clinton's communications director, told reporters. Only weeks ago, Clinton strategists were hoping this mega-primary day would end the race in their favor. Now they were talking about the coming slog, as if it had always been inevitable.

Super Tuesday did not live up to its do-or-die reputation because the Democratic field had been downsized to two strong contenders who push rather different memes. Clinton presents herself as the tried-and-tested hard-worker who can get stuff done. Obama offers himself as a transformative figure who can--due to his power to inspire--bring about change. It's math versus music. And after seven years of George W. Bush--during which the music was awful and the math was bad--Democrats crave both proven competence and uplifting inspiration. For many voters, it's a tough either/or. Super Tuesday demonstrated there is no consensus position within the party among its voters.....

You can read the rest here.

It's quiet out there....Too quiet?

Usually there's not much news on Election Day--until the returns come in. Campaigns tend to do all they can in the final days before an election not to screw up. So there was not much news yesterday, either. I was on a conference call with Mark Penn and Howard Wolfson of the Clinton campaign, and they had little report. They said they expected to win a majority of the delegates and that the race would continue on. "Many of us are making reservations for Texas and Ohio," Wolfson remarked. John Edwards' voters--the few there are--were in "flux," Penn added. Stop the presses! Oh, they did have one piece of news: Jack Nicholson had endorsed Hillary Clinton. Earlier in the day, Robert De Niro had campaigned for Barack Obama. Score that a tie?

All across CNN, Fox News, and MSNBC on Monday night, there was much coverage of Super Tuesday, but not much for my fellow pundits to discuss--other than the polls in each state. Just as the candidates were respectful and well-tempered in last Thursday's debate, the campaigns fired off no last-minute shots at the other. It appears that both will live past Supersaturated Tuesday to campaign another day. And the delegate count will determine how each plays from here.

Other than the final numbers, what else might be telling? Well, Missouri and Colorado could be bellwether states. If Obama wins or almost wins either of those--which are somewhat neutral territory in the Obama-Clinton battle--that will be quite encouraging for his camp. As I and several thousand other commentators have noted, after Tuesday, Obama can focus on individual or small clumps of states. When voters have seen more of him--as in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina--he has fared well. Not that he spent a great deal of time in either Missouri or Colorado, but if he's competitive in those states, it will be an indicator the Obama magic is still alive, Then again, winning California would signify the same. Sorry, on Election Day, the obvious analysis is king. Once the dust settles, there will be plenty of new twists and turns to ponder and, of course, more campaign news.

A few weeks ago, I declared that Barack Obama has a big problem: Super Tuesday. I noted that with a playing field so large, it would be rather tough for him to connect with voters, and that since he was asking voters to join him in a transformative crusade, it was essential for him to forge a tight bond with voters. That's a difficult goal to manage while hop-scotching through 20 or so states in a week.

I stand by that analysis, but now it seems that Obama may do well enough to survive the Super Tuesday challenge. He doesn't have to win the day, he merely has to stay close to Hillary Clinton. The way the delegates are awarded, a strong second-placer can do quite well. And after Tuesday, the schedule shifts to a more drawn-out series of contests. (Jonathan Stein explains here.) Thus, Obama will get his chance to work his magic in more direct fashion--should he survive. And in the race so far, when Obama gets up-close-and-personal with voters, he is rather competitive.

Given that Obama was quite the gentleman at the debate last Thursday night, my hunch is that his campaign's goal is to take whatever punch comes on Tuesday and then get on with a contest-by-contest campaign. Sure, half of the delegates will be selected on Tuesday, and if polls are any guide (no giggling, please), Hillary Clinton is better positioned to vacuum up a majority. But the key question of the day will be whether Clinton opens a lead in the delegate race that he has a chance of overcoming one primary after another in the following weeks. Obama needs the slog.

That's all for me today, I'm traveling today.