Charles Krauthammer be damned, there is evidence that John Edwards is experiencing something of a mini-surge in South Carolina polls. However, it appears that the best Edwards can hope for is to inch ahead of Hillary Clinton for a distant second-place finish to Barack Obama, much like in Iowa.

MyDD’s Todd Beeton says the Edwards surge may be temporary:

while the Edwards surge is impressive, hidden within these three-day rolling averages may be the real story once the votes are counted Saturday night: a potential New Hampshire-like late surge of voters coming home to Clinton.

James Joyner discounts the momentum:

So, let’s say he “shocks the world” by coming in second in a place where people talk like him (he’s from next-door North Carolina, after all) beating out a Yankee senator. Yay for him. Unlike the Republicans, the Democrats allocate their South Carolina delegates proportionally. So he’d get a couple more than if he’d finished third. But so what? He’s not going to suddenly become a contender.

While Open Left’s Chris Bowers says a second-place Edwards finish would be good news for Obama:

Obviously, the ideal situation for Obama would be a double-digit victory coupled with a second-place finish for Edwards. That doesn't seem too likely, but it also isn't impossible.

The conservative blogger reaction to John McCain's South Carolina victory has been decidedly mixed.

Powerline:

I have mixed feelings about that, but it's definitely better than going for Huckabee.

American Spectator’s Jennifer Rubin:

McCain did well enough with conservatives and evangelicals to add to his base of veterans, moderates and Independents. Romney will try to make believe that this is not a loss for him but clearly it is.

And NRO’s Mark R. Levin:

It is hard to see how some of these candidates can draw the movement together, especially McCain, has spent a decade undermining major parts of it.

I am also convinced that Huckabee is now running for the second spot on the ticket. And he is likely to hold out to the bitter end, hoping his delegates will make him a player in the end.

Fred Thompson’s South Carolina concession speech has left both online observers and the traditional media confused as to exactly what his intentions are. Most expected Thompson to dropout, but his speech was more a rehash of conservative platform points with no indication of whether a possible withdrawal was imminent.

Nonetheless, Powerline Blog’s Paul Mirengoff writes the Thompson obit:

Word is that Thompson will return to Tennessee to visit his mother in the hospital. While he's there, presumably, he'll consider his options. Frankly, and I say this with regret, it's difficult to see the case for him remaining in the race.

Classic conservatives, and bloggers in particular, have largely supported Thompson’s campaign, but lamented his lack of enthusiasm and late-game effort. Or, as Hot Air puts it:

When push came to shove, he just … didn’t have enough cowbell.

Red State says Thompson goes out, “Not With a Bang, but a Whimper.”

Meanwhile, NRO’s Jim Geraghty continues to make a case for why Thompson should stay in the race:

[If] he really finds some of his other rivals as not-conservatives who are unacceptable to carry the Republican mantle, why not stay in this thing until the end, collect as many delegates as he can, and at the very least, throw them to the one he finds most acceptable at the GOP convention?

Fred Thompson himself has said he needs to do “very well” in South Carolina for his presidential campaign to go on. Most analysts have said that means winning, or at least placing a very strong second.

But NRO’s Jim Geraghty now says a strong third should be enough for the Thompson campaign to continue. Geraghty points to this new ARG poll which shows Fred Thompson trailing Mike Huckabee and John McCain, but leading Mitt Romney and writes:

A finish like that - behind McCain with 26 percent and Huckabee with 36 percent, but beating Romney by 9, would be plenty reason to stay in the race.

Is this 2008 Republican primary season becoming the Special Olympics of political contests, where all the participants get at least one "very special" primary or caucus victory?

A handful of conservative bloggers, lead most prominently by Quin Hillyer, are calling on South Carolina Republicans to vote for Fred Thompson in Saturday’s primary. Thompson has held a strong standing in the right roots community throughout his campaign, but Hillyer tries reaching beyond those confines to the broader GOP community with a big tent approach:

If I were a South Carolina Republican voter on Saturday, then for parochial, tactical, and philosophical reasons, I would vote for Fred Thompson.

This doesn't mean that I would not have voted for Mitt Romney in Michigan on Tuesday, if I were a Michigander, or that I would not vote for Rudy Giuliani in Florida later this month. Voting in each state, especially in a drawn-out nomination battle, involves particularly local considerations as well as national ones.

In other words, Duncan Hunter fans don’t give up hope on a special caucus exclusive to California’s 52nd district, where your guy just might have a shot!

Hillyer also tries to argue that by choosing a different winner than IA or NH voters, SC could boost its prominence in future primary elections. That logic is a little sketchy, but the points about Thompson’s conservative platform and cultural ties to the region are solid, winning praise over at The Corner.

Meanwhile, Red State’s Erik Erickson follows Thompson on the SC trail where it is snowing and Thompson is apparently winning over audiences.

And Matt Continetti looks into Romney’s lowered SC expectations despite his Mighigan win.

10: 38 No doubt Fred Thompson won tonight's debate. It was the first time he's appeared fully animated since first hinting at his candidacy last March. "We've been waiting a long time to see Fred do very well," GOP pollster Frank Luntz just said on Fox News. And sure enough, the crowed agrees. When Luntz asked them how many thought Thompson won the debate, nearly every hand went up.

10:34 When immigration comes up, Romney takes a shot at Ron Paul suggesting the Texas congressman does not support border enforcement. However, people often overlook that Paul is actually pretty much on point with the most conservative Republicans when it comes to border policy. “I do think we should enforce the law,” he says, “and the law says that we shouldn’t have illegals here and we shouldn’t have amnesty. Paul gets even harsher, blaming the government, “We encourage it by promising free education and amnesty,” he says, then taking a shot at society at large, “Some of our people won’t work because of the welfare state.”

10:22 Huckabee jokes that he is the candidate who gets asked about religion. After a question from co-moderator Carl Cameron, Huckabee defends his religious faith and gets applause. “I certainly am going to practice it, unashamedly, whether I am president or I’m not president,” he said.

10:16 Giuliani has another zinger on the constant use of the word "change" over the past week. On the Dems, "The kind of change they want is the change in your pocket." He then repeats his line from the last debate, noting there is both "good" and "bad" change.

10:13 That was strange. McCain was asked if he was "part of the problem, or part of the solution," because of his long tenure in Washington. He then launched into an answer that detailed his role in promoting the Iraq surge strategy, his role in the Senate as a fiscal conservative, "they called me the sheriff," and finally, an anecdote on how he saved the taxpayers billions by blocking funding for an unnecessary U.S. tanker. What is strange is that his answer oddly mirrored another answer he had given earlier. McCain seemed to realize this midway through and stumbled over his words a bit before finishing on a note about his opposition to congressional earmarks.

10:04 Romney again stresses bringing “modernity” to the Middle East to improve our international relations there. But more striking are his comments on Islam. Romney has rejected inquires into the specifics of his own faith, but nonetheless says, “We’re going to have to move the world of Islam. They’re going to have to reject the extreme.”

Paul says that by re-arming former Saddam loyalists in Iraq's Sunni community, the U.S. is setting itself up for future war with Iraq.

9:55 Across the cable networks in as many debates, one of the favorite camera shots has to be a split-screen of McCain watching Ron Paul answer foreign policy questions.

9:40 Their have been four applause lines so far, two by Fred Thompson. Asked about the recent Gulf diplomatic dustup between Iranian and U.S. naval forces, he says to long applause, “I think one more step and they would have been introduced to those virgins they are looking for.” Smartly, he followed it with a more substantive line, “Iran was clearly testing us. They took British soldiers under similar circumstances.”


9:34 Rudy Giuliani's answer on the Reagan coalition won't earn him any points with Republican voters or conservative critics, but he hits an interesting point. While all the other responses have focused on base conservative principles. Rudy notes, “It was a broad outreach, an inclusive one. Not one that kept people away.” Obviously he's saying it to buffer himself on his weaker issues, but it's at least accurate, which is more than you can say about some of his past deflections.

9:29 That was by far the most animated moment of Fred Thompson’s entire campaign, attacking Mike Huckabee’s economic record, he says, “That doesn’t sound like the model of the Reagan coalition, that sounds like the model of the Democratic Party.”

9:24 Mike Huckabee was asked about the Reagan coalition and if he thinks it's gone. Huckabee, who has been accused by critics, of not being able to hold that coalition together, responded, "Some people think one part of that coalition is more important than others. I think they're all important."

9:15 Very little differences from the candidates on tax cuts, with the exception of Huckabee, who is blending his economic populism with discussion of his "fair tax" proposal.

Exit polls out of Iowa and New Hampshire show the economy being the top issue for Republican primary voters. Not coincidentally, how the candidates would steer the economy is tonight's first question.

Mitt Romney uses his first answer to attack John McCain on the economy. McCain earlier told MI voters that "some jobs have left and they're not coming back." "I disagree," Romney said in response.

McCain zings right back saying, "One of the reasons I won in New Hampshire is because I was telling the truth."

A new Fox New South Carolina poll puts John McCain in first place with 25 percent of the vote. Mike Huckabee is second, with 18 percent, followed by Mitt Romney at 17 percent and Fred Thompson, who hails from neighboring Tennessee, at 9 percent.

While there is clearly no love lost between McCain and Romney, it might be in McCain's best interests to have Romney stick in the last through Super Tuesday. It appears that Huckabee and Romney are fighting over the social conservative vote, with Thompson pulling some of that away as well. That leaves McCain to reap the more secular and moderate vote. Take Romney out of the equation and the path to victory looks brighter for Huckabee, especially if he finishes a strong second or even third in Michigan.

Fred Thompson hosted a conference call with conservative bloggers today.

Ed Morrissey posts some highlights:

On his competition, he agreed with one blogger who called most of his opponents liberals. Fred doesn't think that the media picks candidates as much as rolls with whatever story arises and tries to build themes with them. He will try to draw distinctions between the other candidates and true conservatism in the debate tonight. Keep an eye out for that tonight.

Thompson also said his "individualism" and "authenticity" are his greatest strengths.

The Weekly Standard recaps the questions, while Powerline adds:

South Carolina is the ideal state for Thompson to make his stand in. It's a traditionally conservative southern state in which he has friends and contacts. Thompson insists, moreover, that he has enough money to engage the voters, and not just at a purely "retail" level. He promised to be "competitive" on the state's airwave. In Thompson's view, a vast portion of the state's Republican electorate is undecided (polls tend to confirm this) and likely to be receptive to his message.

Two new South Carolina polls are out today, both with good news for John McCain and Barack Obama.

A Rasmussen survey shows McCain leading Mike Huckabee with 27 percent to Huckabee’s 24 percent. Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson appear to be battling for third place, with Romney taking in 16 percent of the vote and Thompson 12 percent.

Obama is 12 points ahead of Hillary Clinton in the poll, leading 42 percent to Clinton’s 30 percent. John Edwards, who was born in South Carolina, gets 15 percent support.

There have been rumors and accusations that Huckabee and Thompson are both working in the campaign as proxies for McCain. That seems far-fetched for Huckabee, who has just as good, if not a better chance, than McCain to win the nomination. Their natural affinity for each other and antipathy for Romney should not be confused as a conspiracy theory.

However, there’s a stronger case to be made for the Thompson as proxy theory, as Rasmussen’s numbers show him viewed by SC GOPers as the strongest conservative in the field and the one they are most committed to. A strong showing (but not a victorious one) by Thompson in SC not only has the potential to hurt McCain’s foes, but also adds weight to the case that Thompson would be a perfect vice presidential nominee for McCain because Thompson can help shield McCain against conservative attacks and because the two are well-suited temperamental allies:

Fred Thompson’s support is the most solid of all the candidates. Sixty-six percent (66%) of his supporters are “certain” they will vote for him. Fifty-seven percent (57%) of Huckabee supporters are that “certain” along with 49% of McCain backers and 48% of those who currently favor Romney.

Meanwhile, a new Insider Advantage poll shows Huckabee leading with 33 percent over McCain’s 21 percent. Romney places third with 14 percent.

For the Democrats, it’s Obama leading with 40 percent and Hillary Clinton in second at 33 percent. Edwards gets 15 percent of the vote.

Rasmussen Reports has an early poll out of South Carolina showing Mike Huckabee with a solid lead at 28 percent, to John McCain's 21 percent.

Mitt Romney places third with 15 percent and Fred Thompson gets 11 percent. Rudy Giuliani is also in double-figures, with 10 percent of the vote.

Of course, these numbers are bound to change after tonight's results from New Hampshire. How much of a boost will John McCain get? How far will Mitt Romney's numbers fall? And will Mike Huckabee's numbers be affected at all?