Results tagged “Russia” from SpyTalk

U.S. Top Spy's Curious Committee Report

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When Steven Aftergood read Adm. Dennis C. Blair's written responses to a Senate Intelligence Committee questionnaire the other day, something looked familiar.

And indeed, it was.

The Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), had given the committee a statement about Russian attacks on American spy satellites that "was simply lifted, almost word for word," from a Moscow newspaper, Aftergood reported Thursday in Secrecy News, the must-read newsletter he's edited for many years.
One of the smartest guys writing about the intelligence world, for my money, is David Ignatius, the prolific Washington Post columnist and novelist of Middle East intrigue.

Ignatius generally argues that the CIA needs to be chopped up and put back together as a lean, mean spying machine, maybe even shipped somewhere far from the furnace of Washington politics. 

But it's the Directorate of National Intelligence that needs attention first, he wrote Thursday.

Time and NATO Will Help Obama Finesse Russia Threat

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At least on one front, President-elect Barack Obama is going to get some help in defusing a looming confrontation with Russia when NATO foreign ministers gather in Brussels in early December.

Signs are that the ministers are going to blunt the quest of the Bush administration to bring the former Soviet states of Georgia and Ukraine into membership in the Western collective defense organization.

That could remove at least one thorn from the paw of the Russian bear, who Washington needs in its struggles with Iran and preventing nuclear terrorism.

Moscow has also announced it's installing missiles near Poland in response to the Bush administration's plan to install anti-missile sites in Eastern Europe.

Georgia's case wasn't helped today by a report that it may have fired first on the breakaway province of South Ossetia last August, precipitating a Russian invasion.  Some 10,000 demonstrators took to the streets of Tbilisi Friday to protest Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili's handling of the war. 

"Ukraine and Georgia were previously anticipated to take the next step toward full NATO membership, attaining Membership Action Plans (MAPs), at an upcoming December NATO Ministerial," writes Kyle Atwell at The Atlantic Review

"However, Georgia's conflict with Russia and the destabilizing, perennial internal political squabbles between President Yushchenko and Prime Minister Tymoshenko in Ukraine has made a 2008 MAP for either country all but impossible to imagine."

The White House needs a "Plan B," argues Steven Piper, a former American ambassador to Ukraine.

"Rather than pursuing a quest certain to end in diplomatic failure, Washington needs a Plan B. It should aim to shape a December outcome that sends positive signals to Kyiv and Tbilisi while making clear that NATO does not concede Ukraine or Georgia to Russia's geopolitical orbit."  

As for the missiles, time is Obama's greatest ally -- for the moment. 

"According to military analysts in Moscow, Russia's whole stock of Iskander missiles -- the type Mr. Medvedev is proposing sending to Kaliningrad -- are currently deployed near the Georgian border," the BBC reports.

"Russia is unlikely to move those, so it will need to manufacture new ones and that will be time consuming and expensive."    

Ex-Spy's New Book: Iran, Russia Cornering Oil

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Depressed by the market news? Try this for a quick pick-me-up:
 
"An emerging alliance between Iran and Russia will lead to a stranglehold over Gulf and Caspian oil exports, potentially threatening half the world's traded oil (equal to 24-25 million barrels per day) and Europe's gas supply," ex-CIA operative Robert Baer  says in a new book,  The Devil You Know: Dealing with the New Iranian Superpower.

Of course, with oil tumbling below $90 a barrel today on the prospect of a global depression, Iran and Russia could also end up turning on each other in an old fashioned, gas station-style price war.  

Baer, a CIA counterterrorism agent in Beirut, Tajikistan and Paris, among other assignments, also predicts "Pakistan will break apart, as will Iraq, all the more increasing America's need for new allies and a realignment of power."

And those allies would be ... ?  Who's left? 

Baer's first book, See No Evil,  a memoir of his CIA service in the Middle East and elsewhere, formed the basis for the movie Syriana

Ortega Bids to Reprise Cold War Starring Role

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With Russian bombers making a provocative visit to Venezuela Thursday, it looks like Nicaragua's erstwhile Marxist president, Daniel Ortega, is chomping at the bit to reprise his brief, and disastrous, star role in the cold war three decades ago.

Last week Ortega became the only national leader outside of Moscow to recognize the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, invaded by Russian troops in early August.

And the reaction from Washington was swift, if low key.
 
On Wednesday, U.S. Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez cancelled a long-planned visit to Nicaragua, scheduled for later this month, because "circumstances have changed," according to the American ambassador in Managua.

"The secretary's office said that now is not an appropriate moment for the visit because circumstances have changed," U.S. ambassador Robert Callahan told reporters.

Callahan declined to link the cancellation directly to Ortega's recognition of the two Black sea provinces.

But he said, "We have have publicly said regarding ... the Russian occupation of these two entities and the Russian recognition, that this is a violation of some of the resolutions of the United Nations Security Council."

Ortega may also be angling to get Moscow re-involved militarily in Nicaragua, observers said.

As a leader of the Marxist-dominated Sandinistas who took power in 1979, Ortega allied himself with Cuba and the Soviet Union, which supplied him with small arms, Mi-24 combat helicopters and some 2,000 portable ground-to-air SA-7 missiles, called MANPADS.

Ortega recently reneged on an agreement with Washington to destroy the missiles. 

Since he returned to power in 2006, Ortega has also aligned himself with Venezuela's firebrand president Hugo Chavez, who this week welcomed the nonstop arrival of two Russian strategic bombers from across the Arctic and Atlantic oceans. A Russian Navy flotilla has also scheduled a port call in November.
 
Ortega has also irritated Washington by accepting Iran's offer to undertake large-scale infrastructure projects in Nicaragua, the hemisphere's second poorest country after Haiti, but Tehran has yet to show any signs of fulfilling its promises.
Wired.com's Sharon Weinberger has the story.

"Former congressman Curt Weldon is helping broker deals between Russian and Ukranian weapons suppliers and the Iraqi and Libyan governments as part of his new job with a private American defense consulting firm," says Weinberger, author of A Nuclear Family Vacation: Travels in the World of Atomic Weaponry.

The former Pennsylvania Republican had no comment, she says.

Weldon did not respond to e-mails and phone requests to be interviewed or comment for this article. But in a 2006 interview, before the FBI probe was public, Weldon spoke enthusiastically about setting up a "front company" to work with the Russian arms agency, Rosoboronexport. Weldon hoped this company could sell weapons to the Middle East, and other regions, particularly to countries where the U.S. has strained relations. He claimed the director of Rosoboronexport approached him to work with "an American company that would act as a front for weapons these nations want to buy."

Weldon, she said, called the proposal back then an "unbelievable offer."