Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) has a double-digit lead on Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) among registered New York voters in a hypothetical 2010 Senate match-up, according to a Marist poll conducted Nov. 12, 16 and 17.

Giuliani was all over the headlines in New York on Thursday after associates leaked word he would not run for governor, as many had expected. Giuliani is reportedly more interested in the Senate race, and with good reason, according to the Marist results. He trumps Gillibrand, the freshman senator appointed in January, with a majority of voters, 54 to 40 percent. The margin of error was 3.5 percent.

Giuliani leads both among Republicans -- 84 to 12 percent -- and independents -- 55 to 41 percent. He even takes a third of Democratic voters, trailing Gillibrand 59 to 33 percent.

A new poll from DailyKos and Research2000 confirms what election watchers have been saying for the past week -- the special House election in upstate New York is coming down to a race between Democrat Bill Owens and third-party candidate Doug Hoffman. The poll was conducted Oct. 26 to 28. The election is Nov. 3.

Among likely voters, Owens, an attorney, leads Hoffman, an accountant running on the state Conservative Party line, 33 to 32 percent, well within the 4 percentage point margin of error. Republican Dede Scozzafava lags behind at 21 percent. Fourteen percent remain undecided in the 23rd District, which takes in the Northeast corner of the state. Nine-term Rep. John M. McHugh resigned the seat in September to become Secretary of the Army.

Owens held relatively steady compared to the DailyKos poll released Oct. 23, which had him at 35 percent of the vote. The big swing is in the standing of Hoffman and Scozzafava, who continue their dramatic movement in opposite directions.

The standing of the special election candidates for New York's 23rd District remains steady, despite the race's daily fireworks, according to a new poll from liberal blog Daily Kos in conjunction with Research 2000, which was conducted Oct. 19 through 21.

The poll shows Democrat Bill Owens leading the three-way contest with 35 percent of the vote, with Republican Dede Scozzafava at 30 percent and Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman at 23 percent. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

That is nearly identical to a Siena College poll released Oct. 15 that showed Owens leading Scozzafava 33 percent to 29 percent, with Hoffman at 23 percent and a margin of error of 3.9 percent.

The outlook for Republicans in the New York governor's race hinges almost entirely on whether the party can lure former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani into the race, according to a poll conducted Oct. 14-18 by Siena College's Research Institute.

Giuliani's standing has risen among New York registered voters, the poll finds, with a 60 percent approval rating, near his 63 percent all-time high in the Siena poll. Giuliani now trails Attorney General Andrew Cuomo -- the Democrats' favored candidate -- by 7 percentage points, 43 to 50 percent, after several months of lagging in the double-digits.

And Giuliani would crush incumbent Democrat David A. Paterson by more than 20 percent, 56 to 33 percent. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.9 percent.

That stands in stark contrast to the polling performance by the GOP's one declared candidate, former Rep. Rick Lazio, who trails well behind Cuomo, 21 percent to 66 percent, and even lags behind the unpopular Paterson, 39 percent to 37. And Lazio has a net unfavorable rating -- 27 percent with 23 percent who view him favorably. Fifty percent of voters have no opinion of him.

But Lazio is starting to rally GOP support, nabbing the endorsement of new Suffolk County Republican party chair John Jay LaValle on Tuesday.

Democrat Bill Owens has taken a narrow lead over Republican Dede Scozzafava in the special election in upstate New York’s 23rd District, according to a new Siena College poll conducted Oct. 11-13.

Owens, a lawyer and first-time candidate, is up 33 percent to 29 percent for Scozzafava, a longtime state assemblywoman, among likely voters, just outside the plus or minus 3.9 percentage point margin of error.

Two weeks ago, Scozzafava led Owens 35 percent to 27 percent in a Siena poll.

“Scozzafava’s seven-point lead has evaporated over the last two weeks, as voters have gotten to know all the candidates better,” said Siena pollster Steven Greenberg in a release.

As Republican Rick Lazio prepares to officially enter New York's 2010 campaign for governor next Monday, members of his own party are split on whether they think he should run, according to a poll conducted Sept. 8 through 10 by the Marist Institute of Public Opinion.

Forty-three percent of registered Republican voters said they want Lazio to run, but another 43 percent said they don't. Among all voters regardless of party, just 30 percent thought Lazio should run for the seat held by politically struggling interim Democratic Gov. David A. Paterson.

In contrast, 81 percent of Republicans, and 58 percent of voters overall, said they want former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani to run for governor. Giuliani, who bid unsuccessfully for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination, is still mulling a campaign.

David A. Paterson's depressed approval ratings as governor of New York have prompted many fellow Democrats to look longingly toward popular state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo as they await the 2010 contest for the state's top job. And the latest test of public opinion won't weaken that sentiment a bit.

Cuomo is as well thought-off as ever, while a recent uptick for Paterson seems to have plateaued, according to a poll conducted by Siena College Aug. 17 to 20.

Cuomo -- who has been relatively reticent on the matter but has not ruled out a governor's bid -- received a 70 percent favorability rating from New York voters, while just 14 percent viewed him unfavorably, an all-time low. A majority, albeit slim, of 52 percent said they would prefer to see Cuomo run for governor, compared to 35 percent who said he should run for re-election as Attorney General.

Paterson's approval rating continues to hover in the 30's, after dropping into the 20's in the spring.

Former New York City Mayor and 2008 Republican presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani could make a race out of the 2010 governor's contest, if early polling is any indication.

A Rasmussen poll of likely voters conducted July 14 showed that not only is Giuliani leading unpopular Democratic incumbent David A. Paterson by more than 20 percentage points, but he's also within single digits of highly popular Attorney General Andrew Cuomo.

In a hypothetical match-up, Cuomo, a Democrat, leads Giuliani 48 percent to 41 percent with 6 percent supporting another candidate and 6 percent unsure.

Another poll augurs a close primary contest between New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand and Rep. Carolyn B. Maloney in 2010.

A Rasmussen survey of likely Democratic voters conducted July 14 found that 33 percent supported Maloney and 27 percent supported Gillibrand in a hypothetical match-up. That spread is just outside the 5 percent margin of error. Thirty percent of respondents were unsure whom they would vote for.

The poll's results aren't very conclusive since neither Gillibrand nor Maloney are particularly well known to the Democratic electorate.

Forty-nine percent had a favorable or somewhat favorable impression of their sitting senator, 25 percent had a somewhat or very unfavorable impression and 26 percent were unsure. Maloney registered similar numbers - 42 percent held a favorable or somewhat favorable view of the Manhattan-based House member, 24 percent viewed her unfavorably and 34 percent were unsure.

While Democrats have enjoyed two election cycles where they made huge strides in building their congressional majorities, we've been struck by the series of polls in the last few weeks that show a far grimmer outlook for their gubernatorial colleagues as we approach 2010.

Here's a summary of the last five governor polls we've posted here in Poll Tracker:

• New Hampshire: Three-term Democratic Gov. John Lynch was re-elected by landslides in his last two races and has enjoyed high approval ratings since his first term as New Hampshire governor, but economic and budget challenges have taken some of the luster off his current standing, according to a University of New Hampshire Granite State poll conducted June 24 - July 1.

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand is statistically tied with Rep. Carolyn Maloney when matched up in a Democratic primary in 2010, according to a Marist poll conducted June 23-29.

Should she get past Maloney, Gillibrand leads two Republicans matched-up with her in the poll, but the one over whom she has the most comfortable lead - Rep. Peter King - has signaled he would not make the race because of the huge amounts of campaign money he would have to raise.

Each new poll about the political fortunes of New York Gov. David Paterson and the headline on the latest Marist Poll is no exception: "Paterson's Approval Rating Still in the Tank."

"How bad is Governor Paterson's political situation?" asks Marist, which conducted the poll June 23-25. "The answer is pretty bad."

Only 21 percent of voters believe he is doing an excellent or good job (the "excellents" number 3 percent) while 39 percent rate his performance as fair and 37 percent as poor. Fellow Democrats don't give him a rousing endorsement either, with 28 percent regarding his performance as excellent or good (only 4 percent say excellent).

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand trails Rep. Carolyn Maloney, a likely primary rival, 23 percent to 27 percent, in a new Quinnipiac University Polling Institute survey that suggests that contest could be anybody's race.

Of the registered Democrats who responded to the poll, 44 percent called themselves undecided.

Labor activist Jonathan Tasini was barely on the boards, as the favorite of 4 percent of respondants.

New York Gov. David A. Paterson's poll numbers are still awful, but after the free-fall of the past several months, the slight uptick registered in the new Siena Research Institute poll is no doubt welcome news for him. The poll, conducted June 15 through 18, found that 31 percent of registered voters now have a favorable opinion of Paterson, up from 27 percent last month. Fifty-seven percent had an unfavorable view of the Democratic governor, down from 60 percent in May.

That however, was about the only glimmer of hope in the poll. Just 15 of voters said they would elect Paterson in 2010, while 70 percent said they would prefer someone else, nearly identical to the response in May. Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, meanwhile, won a hypothetical primary match-up against Paterson 69 percent to 16 percent, an even larger spread than in May. Cuomo also hit his highest favorability rating ever recorded by Siena, at 71 percent. Forty-six percent of respondents said they would prefer to see Cuomo run for governor, versus 35 percent who said he should run for re-election as Attorney General.

-Emily Cadei

To follow the 2009 and 2010 governors' races, check out CQ Politics' election map.

The percentage of voters who approve of the performance of beleaguered New York Gov. David Paterson has fallen to 30 percent with 54 percent disapproving of the job he is doing, according to a New York Times/Cornell University/NY1 poll conducted May 29-June 3. That's a dramatic reversal from his approval-to-disapproval ration in June 2008, which was 49 percent to 16 percent.

Seventy-one percent said someone else besides Paterson should be elected to a full-term in 2010.

He scores 27 percent or lower when respondents were asked if he cares about the needs of people like themselves, his ability to deal with a serious crisis, his ability to bring jobs to New York, his capacity for working with lawmakers to balance the budget, or whether he could reduce property taxes.

New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo may deny he is considering a gubernatorial run in 2010, but nearly two-thirds of New Yorkers think he will be a candidate. A Siena Research Institute poll conducted May 18 to 21 found that 64 percent of registered voters expect Cuomo to run for the post next year. And 47 percent of voters said they would prefer he run for governor, compared to 33 percent who would like to see him run for re-election as Attorney General.

Registered Democrats said they would vote for Cuomo over current Democratic Gov. David A. Paterson, 70 percent to 19 percent. In a hypothetical match-up Cuomo would soundly defeat Republican Rudy Giuliani, 53 percent to 41 percent. If the Democrats nominate Paterson, however, voters said they would go for Giuliani, the former New York City mayor, 59 percent to 31 percent. Reiterating the incumbent's low public standing. Just 15 percent of voters said they would vote for Paterson in 2010, while 71 percent said they would prefer to elect someone else as governor. Paterson's 27 favorable rating matched Siena's April poll findings, and is his lowest rating since he took over the state's reigns in March 2008.

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani's stock as a New York gubernatorial candidate is rising, a new poll from Quinnipiac University Polling Institute shows. The poll, conducted May 5 - 11, showed Giuliani, a Republican, beating Democratic Gov. David A. Paterson 54 percent to 32 percent among registered voters, increasing the spread by a percentage point from April and from a dead heat in February.

Given Paterson's 28 percent approval rating, outpolling him right now is not such a difficult feat, but Giuliani also closed within single digits in a prospective match-up against Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, the favorite should he decide to run. Giuliani trailed Cuomo, a Democrat, 41 percent to 47 percent, an improvement over the April Quinnipiac poll, which had Giuliani losing 36 percent to 53 percent.

New York voters seem to be taking time to make up their minds about their appointed senator, Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand.

Fully 43 percent of respondents in the latest Marist poll couldn't rate her job performance, while 19 percent said she was doing an excellent or good job and 38 percent said she was performing either fair or poor in her new office.

In hypothetical head-to-head matchups, Gillibrand trailed former Republican Gov. George Pataki -- of the 1,029 registered voters surveyed on April 28 and 29, 38 percent preferred Gillibrand while 46 percent favored Pataki. When pollsters asked the same question in March, the outcome was 45 percent for Gillibrand and 41 percent for Pataki.

New York Gov. David A. Paterson's handling of the state's and his own office's finances are driving his approval ratings ever lower. The latest poll from Siena Research Institute conducted April 13 to 16 found that 63 percent of registered New York voters had an unfavorable opinion of Paterson and 81 percent rated the job he is doing as governor as fair or poor. Both those numbers are the highest the poll has registered since it began surveying opinion about Paterson in the spring of 2008.

A majority of those polled said that three issues - the governor's negotiating of the state budget in secret, his approval of pay raises for his staff, and the way he has addressed the state's financial situation - have greatly contributed to his declining popularity

The 2010 outlook still looks murky for New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand who was named by Gov. David Paterson to fill the seat vacated by Hillary Clinton. She is still so unknown, as are her potential Democratic and Republican challengers, that it is hard to read much into the potential match-ups and favorability numbers in the latest Quinnipiac University poll conducted April 1-5.

Sixty-four percent of voters said they don't know enough about Gillibrand to have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of her, and that's true for 53 percent upstate where her former congressional seat was located. Sixty-eight percent have not heard enough about Long Island Rep. Carolyn McCarthy, a potential Democratic challenger, to have an opinion of her. And 67 percent say the same about Republican Rep. Peter King.

McCarthy leads Gillibrand 33 percent to 29 percent among Democratic voters if the two faced each other in a primary, with 33 percent undecided. (The margin of error is 3.8 points). In a general election match-up, Gillibrand leads King 40 percent to 28 percent with 28 percent undecided.

It's been a long downhill slide in the polls for New York Gov. David Paterson and while it's impossible to say if he has hit bottom, a new Quinnipiac University poll conducted April 1-5 says he now has the lowest approval rating ever for anyone in that job.

Voters disapprove of his performance by 60 percent to 28 percent and that includes 51 percent of Democrats. By an even greater margin - 63 percent to 22 percent - they say that he does not deserve to be elected to a four-year term in 2010, a view shared by 52 percent of Democrats. By 53 percent to 39 percent, voters think his standing in the polls is so low that he should announce now that he won't run.

State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, who Paterson passed over in naming a Kirsten Gillibrand to Hillary Clinton's vacated Senate seat, would beat Paterson in a primary by 61 percent to 18 percent, the poll said. In a general election, former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani would win 53 percent to 32 percent, with Giuliani picking off 3 of 10 Democratic voters. But Cuomo would beat Giuliani 53 percent to 36 percent.

Two-thirds of New Yorkers would prefer another gubernatorial candidate over current Gov. David Paterson, according to a new poll by Siena Research Institute.

Only 14 percent of those surveyed said they would prefer to vote for Paterson.

Paterson has hustled over the last month to re-shuffle his staff and demonstrate he is working hard to remedy New York's budget crisis, but his efforts don't seem to have registered with voters.

Voters in New York and New Jersey are not impressed with the jobs their Democratic governors are doing as they seek to turn around their respective states' struggling economies. That's the message the comes through in two new polls conducted by Rasmussen Reports, which show both approval rating for New York's David Paterson and New Jersey's Jon Corzine continuing to sink.

In New York, 39 percent of voters approve of the job Paterson has been doing as governor, compared to 59 percent who disapprove, based on the poll conducted March 11. Less than half - 45 percent -- of respondents blame Paterson's own poor performance for this, however. Thirty-five percent said it is due to the country's economic situation, while 19 percent weren't sure.

It's been a year since Eliot Spitzer resigned as New York governor after revelations that he had consorted with prostitutes, and it hasn't been a kind one to his successor, David Paterson, who had been his lieutenant governor, according to a Manhattanville College poll conducted Feb. 28 to March 5. The Manhattanville poll is generally consistent with recent ones by the Marist Institute, Siena College and Quinnipiac University.

Most New York voters like some of his personal qualities - he works hard, he's perceived as honest and ethical, well-informed and warm and likeable. But his job performance is panned by a 66 percent to 29 percent margin and he is viewed unfavorably by 46 percent compared to 41 percent who see him favorably. By contrast, the man he passed over to pick former upstate Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand to fill Hillary Clinton's vacant Senate seat - Attorney General Andrew Cuomo - is viewed favorably by a 70 percent to 13 percent margin.

The political newcomer on the March 31 special election ballot has been gaining ground in the race for Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand 's vacant upstate New York House seat, according to a Siena Research Institute pollreleased Thursday.

The Democrats' nominee in the 20th Congressional District contest, Scott Murphy, moved to within striking distance of Republican Jim Tedisco, a state Assembly leader.

The survey of likely voters showed better-known Tedisco leading Murphy by only 4 percentage points, 45 percent to 41 percent.

Another survey of likely voters in that race, conducted Feb. 18-19, showed Tedisco holding a 12-point lead. Each poll had a statistical margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percent.

A businessman and first-time candidate, Murphy was a virtual unknown when he jumped into the race for the seat Gillibrand vacated in January, after she was appointed to the Senate seat that Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton left to become secretary of State.

The approval rating for New York Gov. David Paterson, who is up for re-election in 2010, has sunk to the lowest level ever recorded during the nearly 30 years that the Marist Institute has been tracking the state's chief executives.

Only 26 percent of registered voters say Paterson is doing an excellent or good job in a Marist survey conducted Feb. 25-26. The percentage rating his performance as excellent was 2 percent. The overall approval rating represented a 20-point drop since late January. Forty-three percent say Paterson's performance is "fair" and 28 percent rate it "poor."

While 77 percent of voters say Paterson is working hard as governor and 62 percent say he understands the problems facing the state, more than half do not think he is a good leader or changing things in Albany for the better.

Democrat Scott Murphy remains a mystery to a majority of upstate New Yorkers, according to the first independent poll conducted in the race to fill an open House seat. Nearly a month into the race, 60 percent of likely voters have yet to form an opinion about Murphy, according to a Siena College Research Institute poll released Thursday.

The poll showed Murphy, a political newcomer, rated favorably by 29 percent of the likely voters who responded to the survey, compared to 47 percent for Republican nominee James Tedisco, who has served in the state legislature for 30 years. The name of Tedisco, the current Assembly minority leader, drew a response of "no opinion" from 34 percent of respondents.

Overall, the Siena poll, conducted Feb. 18-19, gave Tedisco a 12-point lead in the 20th District race, 46 percent to 34 percent, with 20 percent undecided. Critically, voters who described themselves as independents favored Tedisco by a similar margin, 45 percent to 31 percent.

Moderate Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand gave up the seat when she was appointed to the Senate to succeed Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, triggering the March 31 special election.

The fallout from the Caroline Kennedy-for-Senate saga in New York continues. Quinnipiac University poll conducted Feb. 10-15. New York Gov. David Paterson took a hit from his handling of the appointment to the seat vacated by Hillary Clinton with his job approval rating falling from a 50 percent to 30 percent positive approval ratio late last month to 45 percent to 41 percent. Voters disapproved of the way he handled the Senate matter by 52 percent to 35 percent.

Quinnipiac also found that the candidate Paterson spurned in choosing upstate Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand - Attorney General Andrew Cuomo - would be preferred by Democrats 55 percent to 23 percent in a 2010 Democratic primary for governor. Cuomo's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 63 percent to 15 percent while Paterson's are 41 percent to 35 percent.

The Caroline Kennedy mix-up still haunts Gov. David Paterson," said Quinnipiac's Maurice Carroll. "In numbers which could tempt Attorney General Andrew Cuomo to take another shot at Governor, Paterson trails Cuomo 2 - 1 among Democratic voters and scratches out a tie with (former New York City) Mayor Rudolph Giuliani in the general election."

Newly-appointed New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand has "her work cut out for her" when it comes to standing for re-election in 2010, according to a Siena Research Institute poll conducted Jan. 25-27.

The survey of New York registered voters said 21 percent are prepared to support her in 2010 while 29 percent prefer someone else. A big part of that work she has to do is with her own party where that figure is 20 percent for her in 2010 and 28 percent against, (by contrast, 24 percent of Republicans say they would support her while 28 percent are opposed). Among Democrats, 63 percent would like to see someone challenge her in a primary while only 11 percent want to see her run unopposed.

Rep. Carolyn McCarthy, whose husband was killed by a deranged gunman and is a strong gun control advocate, has already said she'd oppose Gillibrand if no one else did because of Gillibrand's support of gun owners' rights.

Despite criticism of the way New York Gov. David Paterson handled the filling of Hillary Clinton's vacant Senate seat, more New York registered voters blamed Caroline Kennedy and her aides for the flame-out of her Senate bid than they do Paterson or his team, according to a Quinnipiac University poll conducted Jan. 23-25.

Forty-nine percent blamed the Kennedy side compared to 15 person who singled out Paterson, 12 percent blamed both equally and 24 percent had no opinion.

In another poll on who should fill the Hillary Clinton seat, voters in New York say 33 percent to 29 percent that Gov. David Paterson should name Caroline Kennedy over Attorney General Andrew Cuomo even though they are split on whether she is qualified, with 41 percent saying she's not and 40 percent saying she is, according to a Quinnipiac University survey conducted Dec. 17-21. The margin of error is 3.4 points.

Voters believe Paterson will pick Kennedy by a 48 percent to 25 percent margin.

Two previous polls differed on voter preferences. a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Dec. 8-11 had Kennedy way ahead of Cuomo at 44 percent to 23 percent. A Siena College poll docuted Dec. 8-11 had Cuomo edging Kennedy 26 percent to 23 percent overall, and by 30 percent to 28 percent among Democrats.

Today we update North Carolina, Colorado, Alabama, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Maine, Oregon, Delaware, Michigan, Massachusetts, West Virginia, Arkansas and New Hampshire in our round-up of state-by-state general election match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain. CQ Politics is changing its rating on Virginia from "Leans Republican" to "No Clear Favorite."

Visit our Presidential election maps which give you four different ways to look at the race, including one that lets you build your own electoral scenario.

Here's a summary of our race ratings categories. Use this link for background on how we arrive at them

• No Clear Favorite, for races that are deemed to close to call.
• Leans Democratic and Leans Republican, for highly competitive races in which the named party is perceived to have at least a slight edge, but in which an upset is a highly plausible possibility.
• Democrat Favored and Republican Favored, for races in which the named party has a clearer advantage and is likely to win, though an upset cannot be completely ruled out.
• Safe Democratic and Safe Republican, for races in which the named party is viewed as certain to win.