Here are updates that include polls published Friday through today in our round-up of match-ups between John McCain and Barack Obama. Also, we have changed several race ratings:

• Arkansas from "Leans Republican" to "Republican Favored."
• Arizona from "Republican Favored" to "Leans Republican."
• Connecticut from "Democrat Favored" to "Safe Democrat."
• Georgia from "Republican Favored to "Leans Republican."
• New Hampshire from "Leans Democrat" to Democrat Favored."

• New Mexico from "Leans Democrat" to "Democrat Favored."

  • North Dakota from "Leans Republican" to "No Clear Favorite."
  • Oregon from "Leans Democratic" to "Safe Democratic."

  • Washington State from "Leans Democratic" to "Safe Democratic."

  • Alaska: McCain 46.6, Obama 43.9. (Hays Research); McCain 58, Obama 39. (Research 2000)

  • Arkansas: McCain 51, Obama 44. (ARG)
  • Colorado: Obama 49, McCain 44. (NBC News/Mason-Dixon); Obama 54, McCain 44. (Public Policy Polling)
  • Florida: Obama 49.2, McCain 48. (Zogby);Obama 50, McCain 48. (Public Policy Polling); Obama 47, McCain 45. (Quinnipiac); Obama 47, McCain 45. (Mason-Dixon); Obama 50, McCain 46. (ARG)
  • Georgia: McCain 50, Obama 48. (Public Policy Polling); McCain 52, Obama 45. (SurveyUSA); McCain 47, Obama 44. (Research 2000); McCain 52, Obama 47. (Rasmussen)
  • Illinois: Obama 60, McCain 38. (Rasmussen)
  • Indiana: McCain 50.4, Obama 45.1. (Zogby); Obama 49, McCain 48. (Public Policy Polling); McCain 48, Obama 48. (ARG); McCain 47, Obama 47. (SurveyUSA)
  • Iowa: Obama 54, McCain 37. (Des Moines Register); Obama 55, McCain 40. (SurveyUSA)
  • Kentucky: McCain 56, Obama 40. (SurveyUSA); McCain 56, Obama 39. (Research 2000)
  • Maine: Obama 56, McCain 43. (Rasmussen)
  • Michigan: Obama 55, McCain 42. (Public Policy Polling); Obama 50, McCain 38. (EPIC -MRA)
  • Minnesota: Obama 49, McCain 46. (SurveyUSA); Obama 53, McCain 38. (Research 2000); Obama 57, McCain 41. (Public Policy Polling)
  • Missouri: Obama 48.8, McCain 48.8. (Zogby); Obama 49.4, McCain 48.6. (Public Policy Polling); McCain 48, Obama 48. (SurveyUSA)McCain 47, Obama 46. (NBC News/Mason-Dixon); McCain 50, Obama 47. (InsiderAdvantage/Politico)
  • Montana: Obama 48, McCain 47, Paul 4. (Public Policy Polling); McCain 48, Obama 44. (Research 2000)
  • Nevada: Obama 53.2, McCain 42.4. (Zogby); Obama 51, McCain 47. (Public Policy Polling); Obama 47, McCain 43. (NBC News/Mason-Dixon)
  • New Hampshire: Obama 53, McCain 42. (WMUR/UNH); Obama 53, McCain 42. (SurveyUSA); Obama 50, McCain 41. (Strategic Vision); Obama 51, McCain 44. (Research 2000); Obama 51, McCain 44. (Rasmussen)
  • New Mexico: Obama 58, McCain 41. (Public Policy Polling)
  • North Carolina: McCain 49.5, Obama 49.1. (Zogby); Obama 50, McCain 49. (Public Policy Polling); McCain 49, Obama 46. (NBC News/Mason-Dixon); Obama 48, McCain 48. (InsiderAdvantage/Politico); Obama 45, McCain 38. (Elon University)
  • Ohio: Obama 49.4, McCain 47.4. (Zogby); Obama 48, McCain 46. (SurveyUSA); Obama 51.5, McCain 45.7. (University of Cincinnati); (Obama 50, McCain 43. Quinnipiac); Obama 50, McCain 48. (Public Policy Polling); Obama 52, McCain 46. (Columbus Dispatch); McCain 47, Obama 45. (NBC News/Mason-Dixon)
  • Oregon : Obama 54, McCain 42. (Rasmussen); Obama 55, McCain 39. (Research 2000). Obama 57, McCain 42. (Public Policy Polling)
  • Pennsylvania: Obama 52, McCain 43. (SurveyUSA); Obama 51.2, McCain 41.4 (Zogby); Obama 51, McCain 44. (Strategic Vision); Obama 52, McCain 42. (Quinnipiac); Obama 53, McCain 45. (Public Policy Polling); Obama 52, McCain 44. (Muhlenberg); Obama 51, McCain 45. (ARG); Obama 51, McCain 47. (Rasmussen)
  • South Carolina: McCain 52, Obama 44. (SurveyUSA)
  • South Dakota: McCain 53, Obama 44. (Rasmussen)
  • Virginia: Obama 51.7, McCain 45.3 (Zogby); Obama 50, McCain 46. (SurveyUSA); Obama 47, McCain 44. (NBC News/Mason-Dixon).
  • Washington State: Obama 55, McCain 40. (Strategic Vision)
  • West Virginia: McCain 55, Obama 42. (Public Policy Polling)
  • Wisconsin: Obama 53, McCain 40. (Strategic Vision); Obama 55, McCain 39. (SurveyUSA).
  • Wyoming: McCain 61, Obama 36. (Research 2000)

Also, check out CQ Politics Presidential election maps which give you four different ways to look at the race, including one that lets you build your own electoral scenario.

In contrast to a Fox News poll earlier today that saw Barack Obama's lead narrowing, a New York Times/CBS News poll conducted Oct. 25-29 has Obama still ahead by double-digits, leading 52 percent to 41 percent among likely voters with 5 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 points. This figure includes "leaners" but the Obama's margin is the same without them. The Fox poll put Obama's lead at 3 points, down from 9 the previous week.

The poll says that Obama had reached several "key thresholds": more than half say he is prepared for the job, nearly half believe in his ability to handle an international crisis, most expect him to be able to reach across the aisle and work with Republicans and most say he understands and cares about them. Obama has also benefited from a surge in early voting.

Another big factor is that 59 percent of voters now say that Sarah Palin is not prepared to be Vice President compared to 35 percent who say she is. That is a 16 point swing to the negative since the beginning of the month.

Here are today's updates in our match-ups between John McCain and Barack Obama:

• Arizona: McCain 53, Obama 46. (CNN/Time); McCain 48, Obama 44. (NBC News/Mason-Dixon).
• California: Obama 55, McCain 33. (Field)
• Colorado: Obama 51, McCain 45. (Marist); Obama 48, McCain 44. (Allstate/National Journal)
• Florida: Obama 45, McCain 44. (Allstate/National Journal)
• Indiana: McCain 49, Obama 46. (Rasmussen); Obama 45.9, McCain 45.3 (Indianapolis Star-WTHR)
• Kentucky: McCain 55, Obama 43. (Rasmussen)
• Minnesota: Obama 56, McCain 37. (MPR/Humphrey); Obama Obama 48, McCain 40. (NBC News/Mason-Dixon)
• Montana: McCain 50, Obama 46. (Rasmussen)
• New Hampshire: Obama 53, McCain 40. (Suffolk University)
• New Jersey: Obama 54, McCain 38. (Research 2000)
• New Mexico: Obama 54, McCain 44. (Rasmussen)
• Nevada: Obama 52, McCain 45. (CNN/Time)
• North Carolina: Obama 50, McCain 48. (Rasmussen) Obama 52, McCain 46. (CNN/Time); Obama 47, McCain 43. (Allstate/National Journal)
• Ohio: Obama 51, McCain 47. (CNN/Time); Obama 48, McCain 41. (Allstate/National Journal)
• Pennsylvania: Obama 55, McCain 43. (CNN/Time); Obama 47, McCain 43. (NBC News/Mason-Dixon)
• South Carolina: McCain 53, Obama 42. (NBC/Princeton).
• Texas: McCain 49.3, Obama 38. (University of Texas)
• Virginia: Obama 51, McCain 47. (Marist); Obama 48, McCain 44. (Allstate/National Journal)

Also, check out CQ Politics Presidential election maps which give you four different ways to look at the race, including one that lets you build your own electoral scenario.

John McCain has narrowed Barack Obama's lead with just days to go before Election Day, with Obama now ahead by 47 percent to 44 percent among likely voters with 2 percent preferring "other" and 6 percent undecided in a Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll conducted Oct. 28-29. The margin of error is 3 points. Obama had led by 9 points in The Fox poll conducted Oct. 20-21. Obama's margin is the same when measured for all registered voters.

Fox says, "The race has tightened in part because of changes in a couple of important swing voting groups. Independents back Obama by 5 percentage points today, down from a 9-point edge last week. Similarly, among white Catholics, Obama held an 11-point edge over McCain last week and today they split 46-46."

Here are today's updates in our match-ups between John McCain and Barack Obama:

• Alaska: McCain 57, Obama 41. (Rasmussen)
• Arizona: McCain 46, Obama 44. (Cronkite/Eight)
• Colorado: Obama 53, McCain 45. (CNN/Time); Obama 50, McCain 41. (AP/GfK)
• Florida: Obama 51, McCain 47. (CNN/Time); Obama 47, McCain 45. (Quinnipiac); Obama 45, McCain 43. (AP/GfK)
• Georgia: McCain 52, Obama 47. (CNN/Time)
• Indiana: McCain 47, Obama 45. (Howey/Gauge)
• Michigan: Obama 53, McCain 43. (Rasmussen)
• Minnesota: Obama 55, McCain 43. (Rasmussen)
• Missouri: McCain 50, Obama 48. (CNN/Time)
• New Hampshire: Obama 58, McCain 34. (WMUR/UNH)Obama 55, McCain 37. (AP/GfK)
• Nevada: Obama 52, McCain 40. (AP/GfK)
• North Carolina: Obama 48, McCain 46. (AP/GfK)
• Ohio: Obama 46, McCain 43. (Marist); Obama 51, McCain 42. (Quinnipiac); Obama 48, McCain 41. (AP/GfK)
• Pennsylvania: Obama 52, McCain 39. (Marist); Obama 53, McCain 41. (Quinnipiac); Obama 52, McCain 40. (AP/GfK); Obama 51, McCain 39. (Franklin & Marshall)
• Virginia: Obama 53, McCain 44. (CNN/Time); Obama 49, McCain 42. (AP/GfK)
• Washington: Obama 56, McCain 39. (SurveyUSA)

Also, check out CQ Politics Presidential election maps which give you four different ways to look at the race, including one that lets you build your own electoral scenario.

Barack Obama is leading John McCain 52 percent to 36 percent among registered voters with 3 percent for Ralph Nader, 1 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr and 8 percent for other candidates or undecided, according to a Pew Research Center poll conducted Oct. 23-26. The margin of error is 3 points. Among likely voters, Obama's margin is 53 percent to 38 percent. Pew says this is the fourth straight survey in which the GOP ticket has been edging down.

The poll found several "ominous" signs for McCain: his support is declining across most demographic blocs with the exception of white evangelical Protestants, Obama is running nearly even with him in "red" states that George Bush won in 2004, and Obama holds a 19 point lead among the 15 percent of voters who have already cast a ballot.

Obama also leads when it comes to how "strong" the level of support is among his backers, with 74 percent falling into that category compared to 56 percent for McCain.

Of the 8 percent of voters who are undecided, 29 percent say they might vote either was, 7 percent lean towards Obama, 7 percent lean towards McCain, 8 percent lean towards neither and 49 percent "don't know."

Americans believe by 71 percent to 23 percent that Barack Obama will be elected President next week and that includes a 49 percent to 46 percent plurality of John McCain's supporters, according to a Gallup poll conducted Oct. 23-26.

As the campaign for President winds down with Barack Obama consistently ahead in the polls, Gallup notes that there have been only 2 instances in 14 elections dating back to 1952 when the candidate ahead in its polling at this point did not go on to win.

One example was the contest between Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan in 1980 where Reagan had been trailing by 8 points, and then turned that around when he betsedCarter during a late-in-the-campaign debate on Oct. 28 (at least, in enough voters' minds), moved into a 3 point lead in the next poll and won the election by 10 points. Not an option available to John McCain.

The other example is the 2000 campaign where George Bush had been leading for most of the last month but Al Gore came back to eke out a 48.4 percent to 47.9 percent victory in the popular vote. But we know how that turned out.

Hubert Humphrey almost did this in 1968 when Richard Nixon's 8 point lead in September shrunk to 1 point just before the election, and the final outcome was decided by less than a percentage point.

Gallup has a neat chart of all the 14 races on its site.

Barack Obama is leading John McCain 52 percent to 41 percent with 2 percent for Ralph Nader and 1 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr in a poll of 15 battleground states conducted Oct. 19-21 for National Public Radio. The margin of error is 3.2 points.

Obama leads by 12 points among independents.

"The race has broken open," said Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg who conducted the survey with Republican Glen Bolger. "Some big things have happened that have closed off the campaign that McCain could have run. He's lost independents, now losing them by 12 points. He was the one Republican this year who could have won Independents, and now he's losing them by double digits."

Barack Obama is leading John McCain among likely voters by 52 percent to 39 percent with 5 percent undecided in a New York Times/CBS News poll conducted Oct. 19-22. The margin of error is 3 points. A round-up of the other major national polls, for comparison purposes, is at the bottom of this post. By more than 3-to-1, voters expect Obama to win regardless of who they support.

Voters believe Obama has the temperament and personality to be President by 75 percent to 19 percent, a 10 point gain since mid-October. They say by a 50 percent to 45 percent margin that McCain has those qualities, a 6 point drop for him. Voters are comfortable with Obama by a 62 percent to 34 percent margin compared to 49 percent who are uneasy with McCain and 47 percent who are comfortable with him.

In contrast to most of the other major national surveys this week, an Associated Press-GfK poll has Barack Obama and John McCain statistically tied at 44 percent to 43 percent among likely voters. The margin of error is 3.5 percent. The poll was conducted Oct. 17-20. Obama had a 7 point lead in AP-GfK's previous poll.

(A rundown of the other polls, all of which had Obama ahead by 8 points or more, is at the bottom of this post).

The poll said "the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain's 'Joe the plumber' analogy struck a chord." Even that contrasted with others polls that said the "Joe the Plumber" tack had not resonated with voters.

Obama is leading McCain 49 percent to 40 percent among likely voters with two percent preferring someone else and 8 percent undecided in a Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll conducted Oct. 20-21. The margin of error is 3 points.

Other major national polls this week:

• Ipsos/McClatchy: Obama 50, McCain 42.
• Wall Street Journal/NBC News: Obama 53, McCain 42.
• Pew Research Center: Obama 52, McCain 38.
• New York Times/CBS News: Obama 54, McCain 43.

Barack Obama leads John McCain 52 percent to 42 percent among registered voters with 2 percent saying "neither" and 3 percent undecided in a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll conducted Oct. 17-20. The margin of error is 2.9 percent. The figure includes voters who are leaners to one or the other. Obama's lead the last time this poll was conducted in early October was 5 points. When Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr are factored in, Obama leads 50 percent to 39 percent with 2 percent for Barr and 3 percent for Nader.

Other major polls from this week:

Pew Research Center: Obama 52, McCain 38

New York Times/CBS News: Obama 54, McCain 43

Fifty-two percent of voters in the Pew Survey said they were excited about backing Obama compared to 26 percent of McCain supporters who felt that way. Thirty-nine percent of McCain supporters said they would vote for him because he was the lesser of two evils. In another stark contrast, 46 percent of McCain supporters said their vote was more for McCain than against Obama while 67 percent of Obama supporters said their support was more for their candidate than against McCain. Twenty-seven percent of McCain supporters said they were motivated mainly by rejecting Obama while only 8 percent of Obama supporters said they had made their choice principally because of opposition to McCain.

John McCain has cut some of the gap between himself and Barack Obama on who Americans think better understands the nation's economic problems, but Obama still leads 53 percent to 44 percent with 1 percent either preferring someone else or no one at all, and 2 percent with no opinion in a Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted Oct. 16-19. The margin of error is 2.5 percent. Obama had led McCain by 31 points on the economy issue last week, but the poll says McCain's efforts to focus on the economy at the debate and on the campaign trail have cut that to 19 points.

McCain's "I am not President Bush" retort to Obama at the debate helped push down somewhat the number of voters who think McCain would likely continue the policies of President Bush. Last week, they held that view by 52 percent to 45 percent, and the new poll says voters now believe it by 49 percent to 48 percent.

A consistent theme running through national and state polls is that Barack Obama usually comes out on top on the question of which candidate best understands the problems Americans face in their lives. So the findings of a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted Oct. 10-12 are not surprising: voters say this describes Obama by 73 percent to 26 percent. Fifty percent of voters say they do not believe this about McCain while 48 percent do.

Fifty-one percent of voters also believe that Obama more than McCain has a clear plan for solving the country's problems compared to 35 percent for McCain. It's a closer call on the question of who voters think shares their values. Fifty-eight percent believe that of Obama and 50 percent of McCain. Sixty-three percent consider McCain a strong and decisive leader; 61 percent say the same of Obama.

The latest Gallup daily tracking poll conducted Oct. 4-6 has Barack Obama leading John McCain 51 percent to 42 percent with 5 percent expressing no opinion. The margin of error is 2 percent. Obama's lead matches the 9 point high water mark he notched in July after his foreign trip. Obama has now held statistically significant leads in each daily poll since Sept. 24-26.

Barack Obama has statistically significant leads over John McCain in four daily tracking polls today.

Gallup: Obama 50, McCain 42.

Diageo/Hotline: Obama 48, McCain 41.

Rasmussen Reports: Obama 51, McCain 45.

Research 2000: Obama 52, McCain 40.

In an almost-instant poll following the first presidential debate, Barack Obama emerged ahead of John McCain.

A CBS News/Knowledge Network poll of 500 uncommitted voters found that 40 percent thought Obama was the winner, 22 percent though McCain won and 38 percent called it a draw.

Forty-six percent of uncommitted voters said their opinion of Obama improved as a result of the debate.

A CNN/Opinion Research poll of people who had watched the debates said 51 percent thought Obama did the better job in Friday night's debate, while 38 percent said McCain did better.

Sixty percent of viewers said they thought McCain did better than they expected while 57 percent said the same of Obama. More than two-thirs said they believed either man was capable of handling the job of President.

Debate watchers gave Obama a 58 percent to 37 percent edge on which candidate would do a better job handling the economy and Obama bested McCain by a similar margin about who would better handle, in specific, the current financial crisis.

On McCain's forte (at least in most polls), national security, he led Obama only by 49 percent to 45 percent, which was with the poll's 4.5 point margin of error.

CNN polling director Keating Holland said, "The real test will come in a few days when we see whether support for Obama or McCain changes in polls involving all voters, not just debate watchers...(John) Kerry also won the third debate in 2004 with the same numbers that Obama got in tonight's poll, but his support dropped five points after that event."

John McCain is in a statistical tie with Barack Obama, leading him 47 percent to 45 percent with 2 percent for Ralph Nader, 1 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr and 5 percent undecided in a George Washington University Battleground Poll conducted Sept. 21-25. The margin of error is 3.1 percent. McCain had led by4 points earlier this month. When asked unaided who they would vote for without the minor ticket candidates, McCain and Obama were tied at 43 percent. McCain's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 58 percent to 38 percent while Obama's is 57 percent to 39 percent.

Forty-four percent of voters think McCain is running the more negative campaign compared to 32 percent who believe that of Obama with 12 percent saying both and 9 percent saying neither. That's little changed from earlier this month.

Asked whether they would vote for the Republican or Democratic candidate in their home districts, voters said Democrat by 46 percent to 41 percent with 13 percent undecided. Voters disapprove of the job Congress is doing by 77 percent to 17 percent.

Today we update New Hampshire, Iowa, Michigan, Colorado, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Montana, Florida and Hawaii in our round-up of state-by-state general election match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain. We are also putting three states into different categories. Indiana and North Carolina move from "Republican Favored" to "Leans Republican." And Poll Tracker sheepishly admits it got out of synch with our race ratings team, and is moving Pennsylvania from "Democrat Favored" to "Leans Democratic."

Visit our Presidential election maps which give you four different ways to look at the race, including one that lets you build your own electoral scenario.

Here's a summary of our race ratings categories. Use this link for background on how we arrive at them

• No Clear Favorite, for races that are deemed to close to call.
• Leans Democratic and Leans Republican, for highly competitive races in which the named party is perceived to have at least a slight edge, but in which an upset is a highly plausible possibility.
• Democrat Favored and Republican Favored, for races in which the named party has a clearer advantage and is likely to win, though an upset cannot be completely ruled out.
• Safe Democratic and Safe Republican, for races in which the named party is viewed as certain to win.

McCain is leading Obama by a statistically insignificant 46 percent to 44 percent of likely voters with 3 percent for Ralph Nader, 1 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr and 6percent expressing no opinion or having another choice, according to an NPR News poll of 14 battleground states. The margin of error is 3.46 percent. In its August poll, Obama had led by 3 points.

Looking at the electorate from the perspective of cultural and consumer habits, voters who prefer Starbucks also prefer Obama, by 52 percent to 39 percent. Dunkin' Donuts voters back McCain 47 percent to 43 percent. Customers who shop frequently at Wal-Mart back McCain 58 percent to 33 percent. Wal-Mart women back McCain 58 percent to 34 percent. Sarah Palin individually does even better than that: she gets 63 percent to 23 percent support among them. However, women under 34 have an unfavorable view of Palin by a 48 percent to 36 percent margin.

We've updated Ohio, Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Arkansas, Massachusetts, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Vermont, North Carolina, Kansas, Kentucky, California and Florida in our round-up of state-by-state general election match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain. We are also putting three states into different categories. Indiana and North Carolina move from "Republican Favored" to "Leans Republican." And Poll Tracker sheepishly admits it got out of synch with our race ratings team, and is moving Pennsylvania from "Democrat Favored" to "Leans Democratic."

Visit our Presidential election maps which give you four different ways to look at the race, including one that lets you build your own electoral scenario.

John McCain leads Barack Obama by 48 percent to 44 percent nationwide, according to George Washington University's "Battleground Poll" that was conducted by the Democratic firm Lake Research Partners and The Tarrance Group, a Republican firm, of 1,000 registered likely voters from Sept. 7-11. McCain and Obama have nearly identical favorable/unfavorable ratings (58/37 for McCain and 57/37 for Obama), as do vice-presidential running mates Joe Biden (49/29) and Sarah Palin (53/29). When voters were asked to compare McCain and Obama on a range of qualities, McCain led Obama on "is a strong leader" and "keeping America safe and secure" and Obama led McCain on "handling the health care issue" and "will bring change to Washington." More voters say Obama rather than McCain "will unite the country" and "fights for people like me," but McCain has significantly narrowed the gap since May.

A Rasmussen Reports survey on Sept. 14 of 500 likely voters in each of five battleground states found McCain making marginal gains in Colorado, Florida and Pennsylvania and Obama gaining a bit in Ohio and Virginia. All five states, which have 90 electoral votes between them, are very close: only in Florida, where McCain leads Obama by 49 percent to 44 percent, is any candidate's advantage larger than the survey's margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. (For specific results, check out these states in our latest general election match-ups posting today).

The Battleground Poll found that in the race for Congress, respondents said, by a 48 percent to 40 percent margin, that they would vote for the Democratic candidate over the Republican candidate. The Democrats have the edge even though most of the public has a dim view of the Congress they control: just 19 percent approve and 72 percent disapprove of the job Congress has done this year.

Our latest round-up of match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain updates Minnesota, Nevada, South Dakota, and Oklahoma. There has been talk a while ago that Obama might have a chance to make a competitive run in traditionally Republican South Dakota, as well as North Dakota and Montana, but that is not the way the polls are pointing. Also, check out CQ Politics' election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down. Also go to our Presidential Election Maps to see our calls and use our Scenario Builder to make your own.

• Minnesota: Obama and McCain are tied at 45 percent each with 10 percent undecided in a Minneapolis Star Tribune poll conducted Sept. 10-12. The margin of error is 3.9 percent. When this poll was last conducted in May, Obama led by 13 points. Since then, the poll said McCain has "picked up considerable support among men and to a lesser degree among women. He also has boosted his standing with whites, young voters and all levels of household income and education." A SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 10-11 gives Obama a statistically insignificant 47 percent to 45 percent lead with 2 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.7 percent. The 55 percent who named the economy as the top issue preferred Obama 52 percent to 45 percent. Health care was the second most cited issue at 11 percent and Obama won there too by 64 percent to 30 percent. Seven percent named terrorism and they chose McCain by 96 percent to 1 percent. These surveys stand in contrast to a CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Aug. 31 - Sept. 2 that had Obama leading 53 percent to 41 percent . The margin of error was 3.5 percent. A survey conducted Aug. 7-17 by Minnesota Public Radio and The Humphrey Institute had Obama ahead 48 percent to 38 percent with 3 percent supporting Ralph Nader, 1 percent backing Libertarian Bob Barr and 10 percent undecided in. The margin of error was 3.6 percent. The Humphrey Institute's Larry Jacobs said that despite Obama's current 10 point lead, "This race is very much up in the air." Democrats have carried the state in the last five elections, but by only 3.5 percent in 2004 and 2.4 percent in 2000. CQ Politics' Election Forecast for Minnesota calls the state "Leans Democratic."

Barack Obama and John McCain are tied at 46 percent each with 8 percent undecided in a Newsweek poll conducted Sept. 10-11. The margin of error is 3.8 percent. They run evenly among independents. Obama had led by 3 points in this poll in July. A little ominously for Obama, 77 percent of former Hillary Clinton supporters are supporting him, but 16 percent say they will back McCain. The survey also shows McCain gains on the issues of the economy, energy and Iraq.

McCain leads among white voters by 55 percent to 37 percent. White evangelicals and white Catholics back McCain by margins of 47 percent and 26 percent respectively. Obama leads among non-whites by 75 percent to 17 percent.

The most important factor in the campaign for Obama supporters is ability to bring about change followed by his positions on the issues. For McCain backers, three factors rank about equally - positions on the issues, experience and leadership. Voters overall say by 51 percent to 27 percent that Obama is the more likely to bring change.

John McCain is in a statistical tie with Barack Obama at 46 percent to 45 percent with 2 percent for Ralph Nader, 1 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr and 4 percent undecided in an Ipsos/McClatchy Poll conducted Sept. 5-9. The margin of error is 3.3 percent for registered voters.

Voters think Joseph Biden is qualified to be Vice President by a 56 percent to 31 percent margin and they say the same about Sarah Palin by 47 percent to 43 percent.

Asked to rate which candidate is stronger on various issues, the results were these:

• Foreign policy: McCain 55, Obama 36
• Healthcare: Obama 51, McCain 35
• Jobs and the economy: Obama 50, McCain 40
• Leadership: McCain 47, Obama 45
• National security: McCain 56, Obama 35
• Change: Obama 56, McCain 35

John McCain has consistently out-polled Barack Obama and foreign policy matters and who voters think is the stronger leader, but now he appears to be gaining on Obama when it comes to handling the economy. Just after the Democratic convention, Obama enjoyed a 19 point lead over McCan and now the Republican nominee has narrowed that to 48 percent to 45 percent in a post-Republican convention Gallup survey conducted Sept. 5-7. The margin of error is 3 percent.

The economy is rated the top issue by 42 percent of voters and four other issues are bunched up next at 12 or 13 percent - Iraq, energy and gas prices, health care and terrorism. Here's how the candidates fare on those:

• Iraq: Mccain 52, Obama 42.
• Energy and gas prices: McCain 46, Obama 46.
• Health care: Obama 52, McCain 40.
• Terrorism: McCain 55, Obama 38.

The Democratic Convention helped Barack Obama draw even with John McCain on the question of who voters saw as a strong and decisive leader, but now in the wake of the GOP convention, it's McCain's turn to reclaim the mantle, leading Obama by 52 percent to 41 percent in a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted Sept. 5-7.

Voters also favor McCain over Obama by between 4 and 7 points when it comes to working well in Washington with both parties to get things done, managing government effectively, putting the country's interests ahead of his own and being honest and trustworthy. Obama, as he consistently does, leads McCain on the criterion of "cares about people like you" where he has an 8 point advantage, and sharing "your values," where he has a smaller 4 point edge.

John McCain has pulled out ahead of Barack Obama in a CBS News poll comducted Sept. 5-7, although by a statistically insignificant margin. McCain leads Obama 46 percent to 44 percent with 9 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 percent. In its last poll before the Democratic convention, Obama led 45 percent to 42 percent with 10 percent undecided. Click here for the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll also released today, a round-up of the daily tracking polls, a look at five critical swing states and our latest state-by-state general election match-ups.

Barack Obama and John McCain are tied at 48 percent each with 3 percent undecided in a new CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted Sept. 4-6.

A USA Today/Gallup poll we post earlier had McCain up 50 percent to 46 percent among registered voters and 54 percent to 44 percent among likely voters.

As far as the daily tracking polls:

• Diageo/Hotline: McCain and Obama tied at 44 percent each with 10 percent undecided in a survey conducted Sept 5.-7. That's a turnaround from Friday when Obama led 46 percent to 40 percent.
• Gallup: McCain leads 49 percent to 44 percent with 4 percent expressing no opinion, in a survey conducted Sept. 5-7. The margin of error is 2 points.
• Rasmussen Reports: McCain leads Obama by a statisitically insignificant 47 percent to 46 percent and has the same 1 point margin when "leaners" are included. Seventy-seven percent of Obama supporters say they are voting for him with enthusiasm compared to 65 percent for McCain, but McCain's figure is up from 54 percent before the GOP convention.

Now that the interviewing period for Gallup's daily tracking poll includes the final day of the Republican convention and John McCain's acceptance speech, the race is back to a statistical tie with Barack Obama leading 47 percent to 45 percent with 5 percent expressing no opinion. The poll was conducted Sept. 3-5 and has a margin of error of 2 percent. Obama''s lead had grown to as much as 8 points with the boost he got from his own convention, before the action moved to St. Paul and the GOP.

Some more post-Democratic convention polls are coming out showing that Barack Obama got a bounce out of the party's meeting. Several show Obama with a statistically significant lead and one has the race tied.

A Diageo/Hotline poll conducted Aug. 29-31 has Obama ahead of John McCain 48 percent to 39 percent with 8 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.5 percent. Before the convention, Obama had a 4 point lead. One reason is that Obama now leads McCain 42 percent to 33 percent among independents after trailing him 38 percent to 36 percent before the convention. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable rating improved from 55 percent to 38 percent before the convention to 60 percent to 31 percent. McCain, at 51 percent to 41 percent, stayed about the same

Echoing other recent polls, a USA Today/Gallup survey conducted Aug. 21-23 shows that John McCain far and away is seen as more able to handle the responsibilities of commander-in-chief than Barack Obama. However, Obama has the advantage over McCain on a host of qualities and characteristics other than foreign policy and national security.

Eighty-percent of Americans believe McCain is more prepared to be commander-in-chief compared to 53 percent for Obama. Only 18 percent don't believe that of McCain, while 44 percent say Obama cannot handle those duties.

Obama leads McCain by 7 points or more in four different areas: caring about peoples' needs, ability to work with both parties to get things done, independence, and sharing peoples' values.

Three national polls are out today with different pictures of the race, although none of them are particularly good news for Barack Obama. There has also been a series of state polls in the last two days which showed the Democrat having difficulty gaining any ground.

The George Washington University Battleground 2008 survey conducted Aug. 10-14 has John McCain in a dead heat with Obama leading him 47 percent to 46 percent with 2 percent preferring "other" and 19 percent undecided. The poll is conducted jointly by the Republican Tarrance Group and the Democratic firm of Lake Research Partners.

A Wall Street Journal/NBC News survey conducted Aug. 15-18 says McCain now trails Obama by only 45 percent to 42 percent in, down from the 6 point leads Obama held in June and July. Four percent answered "neither" and 8 percent were undecided. The margin of error is 3.1 percent.

And a Reuters/Zogby poll conducted Aug. 14-17 has McCain moving out front 46 percent to 41 percent with 13 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 points. Last month, Obama had led by 7 points.

These three polls come on the heels of yesterday's Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg survey that had Obama and McCain in a statistical tie, with Obama ahead 45 percent to 43 percent in a survey conducted Aug. 15-18. The margin of error was 3 points.

When you combine these with match-ups of McCain and Obama in eight competitive states for which polls came out yesterday and today, a picture emerges of an Obama campaign - at least at this point - losing some of the luster it had after he clinched the nomination, and either just holding his ground or slipping in the polls.

Today we update North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida, Iowa, Indiana and Minnesota in our round-up of state match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain. The news tends to be better for McCain with him gaining some ground in North Carolina, and while Obama is ahead in Pennsylvania, his support in both states hasn't changed much. McCain also pulled out ahead in Indiana and Florida, although by a statistically insignificant margin. Also, check out CQ Politics' election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down.

• North Carolina: While Obama is still in hailing distance in a state that the Republicans have carried in the last five elections, another poll this month is noting movement towards McCain. McCain leads 46 percent to 40 percent with 2 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr and 12 percent undecided in a Civitas Institute poll conducted Aug .14-17. The margin of error is 4.2 percent. That's a 3 point gain for McCain since July in this poll. Helping McCain is growing strength among independents which is now 18 points. At one point, he had been about even with Obama among them. The pollster says Obama seems stuck at about 40 percent even though he "continues to invest millions of dollars in television, field operations and commit his personal time." A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug. 13 also found McCain picking up a little ground. McCain led Obama 46 percent to 42 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 8 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. But McCain's lead widens to 6 points when voters leaning one way or the other are included. In the last Rasmussen survey in mid-July, McCain led by 3. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio was 59 percent to 40 percent while Obama's is 51 percent to 48 percent. McCain had stronger support than Obama with his own base, drawing the backing of 87 percent of Republicans compared to Obama's 74 percent of Democrats. McCain had better than a 2-to-1 margin among white voters. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Aug. 9-11 gave McCain a 49 percent to 45 percent lead that's just a hair beyond the 3.9 percent margin of error. Three percent preferred "other" and 3 percent were undecided. McCain led by 9 among men voters and the two men were statistically even among women. McCain led among voters over 34, with the most pronounced advantage being a 13 point edge among voters over 65 (18 percent of the sample). McCain led 60 percent to 33 percent among white voters (75 percent of the sample) while Obama led 91 percent to 9 percent among blacks (19 percent of the sample). The economy is cited by voters as the top issue and Obama and McCain run evenly among them. CQ Politics' Election Forecast lists this state as "Republican Favored."

Today, we update Missouri and Connecticut, and add Oklahoma, Arizona, Kentucky and Alabama.

• Missouri: McCain is leading Obama in a SurveyUSA poll conducted July 29-31 by 49 percent to 44 percent with 7 percent undecided and a 2.6 percent margin of error. McCain has an 8 point lead among men and a 15 point lead among whites (86 percent of the sample), while lagging Obama only slightly among women and by the usual huge margin among blacks (11 percent of the sample). The biggest age group difference is among those over 65 (about a fifth of the sample) where McCain leads by 15 points. Independents prefer McCain by 21 points. The economy is the top issue for Missourians and Obama leads there by a bare 49 percent to 46 percent. A Research 2000 poll conducted July 7-10 for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch KMOV-TV had McCain ahead 48 percent to 43 percent with 9 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.5. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio among voters was 54 percent to 37 percent while McCain's was 49 percent to 43 percent. McCain had an 11 point lead among white voters while Obama has an overwhelming lead among blacks. Obama had a slim 4 point lead among independents. Among age groups, the only one in which either candidate has a big advantage is with voters under 29 where Obama is ahead by 15 points. Thirty-five percent of Missourians think McCain's age will be important to voters. The top five issues for voters (in this order) were the economy, Iraq, lowering gas prices, health care and terrorism. Of those, voters believed Obama would better deal with the economy, gas prices and health care by 16 points, 15 points and 23 points respectively, the two ran about even on Iraq, while McCain led Obama on the terrorism issue by 19 points. On Iraq, 46 percent said the U.S.'s next move should be to withdraw some troops and 27 percent said it should withdraw all the troops. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 7 had McCain ahead of Obama 47 percent to 42 percent with a 4.5 percent margin of error. Public Policy Polling Conducted a survey July 2-5 that had McCain leading 47 percent to 44 percent with 9 percent undecided and a 3.6 percent margin of error. Republicans have won 7 of the last 10 elections here with George Bush winning by about 7 points and 3 points in 2004 and 2000, and Clinton winning by about 6 in 1996 and about 11 in 1992

Barack Obama is leading John McCain 47 percent to 41 percent with 4 percent choosing neither and 6 percent undecided, in a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll conducted July 18-21. The margin of error is 3.1 percent. Obama's lead is the same as it was in this poll last month.

Obama held his lead even though voters, by a 55 percent to 35 percent margin, said he was the riskier choice for President.

We're adding Illinois to our round-up of state-by-state general election match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain. Be sure also to see Taegan Goddard's Political Insider blog today where he'll help color in the electoral map for you.

• Illinois: Obama leads McCain in his home state 50 percent to 37 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 9 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 8. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Both Obama and McCain are viewed favorably by 60 percent of voters, although Obama's "very favorables" are higher. Thirty-one percent of voters think McCain is too old to be President. Thirty-eight percent think Obama is too inexperienced but that's offset by 54 percent who reject that idea. Voters think the next President's goal in Iraq in the next four years should be to bring U.S. troops home rather than win the war by a 56 percent to 35 percent margin. Democrats have carried the state in the last four elections. Illinois went Republican in the six before those.

Today we update Missouri and New Jersey in our round-up of John McCain-Barack Obama match-ups around the country.

• Missouri: McCain leads Obama 47 percent to 42 percent with 6 percent preferring "other" and 5 percent undecided, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 7. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. In Rasmussen's June 3 poll of the state, before Obama clinched the Democratic nomination, the two were running about even. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 58 percent to 39 percent while Obama's is 50 percent to 48 percent. Twenty-eight percent of voters believe McCain is too old to be President. On the flip-side, voters say Obama is too inexperienced by a 50 percent to 43 percent margin. Asked whether the next President's top goal in Iraq should be too bring the troops home or win the war by the end of his first term, Missourians said getting the troops home by 53 percent to 40 percent. Public Policy Polling also released a survey today, conducted July 2-5, that had McCain leading 47 percent to 44 percent with 9 percent undecided and a 3.6 percent margin of error. Republicans have won 7 of the last 10 elections here with George Bush winning by about 7 points and 3 points in 2004 and 2000, and Clinton winning by about 6 in 1996 and about 11 in 1992.

John McCain has a statistically significant lead over Barack Obama ... among pet owners, according to an AP-Yahoo poll conducted June 13-23. And if you narrow it down to dog owners, McCain looks even better.

Yes, it has come to this.

McCain is favored by pet owners by a 42 percent to 37 percent margin (the margin of error is 2.3 points). Dog owners back McCain 43 percent to 34 percent.

McCain has an English springer spaniel (Sam), a mutt (Coco), two turtles (Cuff and Link), a black and white cat (Oreo), a ferret, three parakeets and he also keeps saltwater fish.

Obama has nada.

The pet industry estimates that 63 percent of American households have a pet.

As for those who don't, they favor Obama 48 percent to 34 percent.

Here's our latest round-up of state polls showing how Barack Obama and John McCain are faring against each other. This one updates New York and Connecticut.

• Montana: Obama is leading McCain 48 percent to 43 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 1. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. In April, McCain had led Obama here by 5 points. Both candidates are viewed favorably by voters: Obama by 57 percent and McCain by 58 percent. A quarter of voters think McCain is too old to be President. Forty eight percent believe Obama has enough experience to sit in the Oval Office and 42 percent do not. Asked whether the top priority for the next President should be to win the war in Iraq or bring the troops home by the end of his first term, Montanans came down 50 percent to 44 percent in favor of bringing the troops home. George Bush won Montana by more than 20 points in each of the last two elections and the last time the Democrats carried the state was in 1992 when Bill Clinton beat the first George Bush with the help of Ross Perot.

While Barack Obama trailed Hillary Clinton badly among Hispanics during the Democratic nominating battle, he is leading John McCain 59 percent to 29 percent among those voters according to Gallup data collected between March 7 and June 30. Among Hispanics who identify themselves as Democrats, Obama leads 78 percent to 13 percent and 55 percent to 30 percent among independents. About 18 percent of Hispanics say they are Republicans and they favor McCain 75 percent to 21 percent. The edge to Obama cuts across nearly all demographic lines.

We've pulled together all the recent polls we could find showing how Barack Obama and John McCain are faring against each other in state polls. here's what we found:

• Connecticut: In sports, they'd call this contest a laugher. Obama leads McCain by 56 percent to 35 percent in a Quinnipiac University survey conducted June 26-29. (Do you really need to know the margin of error?) Obama has a 16 point lead among independents, 13 percent among men, 18 percent among women, 13 percent among whites, and big leads in all age groups. Fifty-three percent of voters say Obama should not pick Hillary Clinton as a running mate although Democrats are somewhat more receptive, favoring the idea by 51 percent to 42 percent.

The number of Americans who see free trade as a threat rather than a boon to the U.S. economy is growing, a factor that could work against John McCain in the general election campaign, according to a CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted June 26-29. Fifty-one percent of Americans see free trade as a threat compared to 48 percent in 2006 and 35 percent in 2000. Only 4 in 10 see free trade as an opportunity. Pointing to industrial states like Pennsylvania and Michigan, CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said "it's possible that John McCain's decision to highlight his free trade position may wind up losing him some votes among Americans who feel threatened economically by competition from other countries." Women, older Americans and lower-income voters were groups who voiced the greatest concern.