Results tagged “Georgia” from SpyTalk

Time and NATO Will Help Obama Finesse Russia Threat

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At least on one front, President-elect Barack Obama is going to get some help in defusing a looming confrontation with Russia when NATO foreign ministers gather in Brussels in early December.

Signs are that the ministers are going to blunt the quest of the Bush administration to bring the former Soviet states of Georgia and Ukraine into membership in the Western collective defense organization.

That could remove at least one thorn from the paw of the Russian bear, who Washington needs in its struggles with Iran and preventing nuclear terrorism.

Moscow has also announced it's installing missiles near Poland in response to the Bush administration's plan to install anti-missile sites in Eastern Europe.

Georgia's case wasn't helped today by a report that it may have fired first on the breakaway province of South Ossetia last August, precipitating a Russian invasion.  Some 10,000 demonstrators took to the streets of Tbilisi Friday to protest Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili's handling of the war. 

"Ukraine and Georgia were previously anticipated to take the next step toward full NATO membership, attaining Membership Action Plans (MAPs), at an upcoming December NATO Ministerial," writes Kyle Atwell at The Atlantic Review

"However, Georgia's conflict with Russia and the destabilizing, perennial internal political squabbles between President Yushchenko and Prime Minister Tymoshenko in Ukraine has made a 2008 MAP for either country all but impossible to imagine."

The White House needs a "Plan B," argues Steven Piper, a former American ambassador to Ukraine.

"Rather than pursuing a quest certain to end in diplomatic failure, Washington needs a Plan B. It should aim to shape a December outcome that sends positive signals to Kyiv and Tbilisi while making clear that NATO does not concede Ukraine or Georgia to Russia's geopolitical orbit."  

As for the missiles, time is Obama's greatest ally -- for the moment. 

"According to military analysts in Moscow, Russia's whole stock of Iskander missiles -- the type Mr. Medvedev is proposing sending to Kaliningrad -- are currently deployed near the Georgian border," the BBC reports.

"Russia is unlikely to move those, so it will need to manufacture new ones and that will be time consuming and expensive."    

Ortega Bids to Reprise Cold War Starring Role

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With Russian bombers making a provocative visit to Venezuela Thursday, it looks like Nicaragua's erstwhile Marxist president, Daniel Ortega, is chomping at the bit to reprise his brief, and disastrous, star role in the cold war three decades ago.

Last week Ortega became the only national leader outside of Moscow to recognize the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, invaded by Russian troops in early August.

And the reaction from Washington was swift, if low key.
 
On Wednesday, U.S. Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez cancelled a long-planned visit to Nicaragua, scheduled for later this month, because "circumstances have changed," according to the American ambassador in Managua.

"The secretary's office said that now is not an appropriate moment for the visit because circumstances have changed," U.S. ambassador Robert Callahan told reporters.

Callahan declined to link the cancellation directly to Ortega's recognition of the two Black sea provinces.

But he said, "We have have publicly said regarding ... the Russian occupation of these two entities and the Russian recognition, that this is a violation of some of the resolutions of the United Nations Security Council."

Ortega may also be angling to get Moscow re-involved militarily in Nicaragua, observers said.

As a leader of the Marxist-dominated Sandinistas who took power in 1979, Ortega allied himself with Cuba and the Soviet Union, which supplied him with small arms, Mi-24 combat helicopters and some 2,000 portable ground-to-air SA-7 missiles, called MANPADS.

Ortega recently reneged on an agreement with Washington to destroy the missiles. 

Since he returned to power in 2006, Ortega has also aligned himself with Venezuela's firebrand president Hugo Chavez, who this week welcomed the nonstop arrival of two Russian strategic bombers from across the Arctic and Atlantic oceans. A Russian Navy flotilla has also scheduled a port call in November.
 
Ortega has also irritated Washington by accepting Iran's offer to undertake large-scale infrastructure projects in Nicaragua, the hemisphere's second poorest country after Haiti, but Tehran has yet to show any signs of fulfilling its promises.

Russia's punishing attack on Georgia has already harvested bitter fruit beyond the Black Sea.

On Thursday U.S. and Polish officials reached agreement to install a battery of American  missiles in Poland, a plan sure to infuriate Russia and escalate tensions with its former  puppet states in Eastern and Central Europe.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said the deal includes a "mutual commitment" between the two nations -- outside of the NATO alliance -- to come to each other's assistance in case of danger.

With a wary eye on Russia's lightening attack on Georgia, Tusk said NATO would be too slow to act if it was threatened by Moscow, according to an A.P. report from Warsaw.

"Poland and the Poles do not want to be in alliances in which assistance comes at some point later -- it is no good when assistance comes to dead people. Poland wants to be in alliances where assistance comes in the very first hours of -- knock on wood -- any possible conflict," Tusk said.

Russia, meanwhile, has positioned ballistic missile launchers in Georgia, WIRED's Noah Shachtman reported Thursday, based on a transcipt of a little noticed briefing by Deputy National Security Advisor Jim Jeffrey and other Bush administration officials earlier in the week.

"The President was informed immediately on Friday, when we received news of the first two SS-21 Russian missile launchers into Georgian territory," Jeffrey said.

On Capitol Hill, some Republicans think they can use Russian aggression in Georgia to bludgeon the Democrats into supporting the deployment of an American "missile shield" in Eastern Europe, according to a story by CQ's enterprising Josh Rogin:

In September, lawmakers will resume their debate over the missile sites -- this time amid fresh concerns over Russian threats to U.S. allies in eastern Europe. Though the administration has presented the missiles sites as a defense against Iranian attack, missile defense advocates say they now plan to cite the Russian threat as a way to get Democrats to let construction begin...

"Russia's actions represent compelling data that should be convincing to Democrats that we don't want to delay this thing," said Rep. Trent Franks, R-Ariz., a leading missile defense champion.

"This is not just about missile defense; this is about demonstrating to Russia that America is still a nation of resolve . . . and we're not going to let Russian expansionism intimidate everyone."

But some key congressional Democrats aren't budging from their opposition to the plan, Rogin reports.

U.S. Spies Really 'Surprised' By Georgia Attacks?

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If Georgia's invasion of South Ossetia took Washington by surprise, as some reports have it, then American intelligence is in far worse shape than we've even imagined. 

If the Pentagon and CIA were also caught flat-footed by Russia's response, as the  McClatchy Newspapers' crack Washington bureau is reporting, then we have to ask: Why are we spending $55 bllion a year on intelligence? What are we getting out of it?

"I wouldn't say we were blind," a State Department official told McClatchy's Jonathan Landay on Monday. 

"I would say that we mostly were focused elsewhere, unlike during the Cold War, when we'd see a single Soviet armor battalion move. So, yes, the size and scope of the Russian move has come as something of a surprise."

A "surprise."  My, oh, my.

Except I don't believe it.