Human Events' Michelle Oddis has a great video interview with Fred Thompson, hours before he addressed the Republican National Convention last night. Thompson once again breaks out the cigar (though I'm told this time it's not a Cuban) and makes reference to his previous Michael Moore rebuttal video, probably the one highlight of his short-lived presidential run:





In case you missed Thompson's speech last night, you can watch it here via the C-SPAN RNC Hub. Everyone was expecting Joe Lieberman to own the night, but the near-unanimous response from Republicans and the media on the ground here in St. Paul is that Thompson wowed the audience with his passioned defense of John McCain and Thompson's full-frontal assault on the media:

Fred Thompson has officially dropped out of the presidential race. We'll have a round-up of blogger reaction as soon as it starts trickling in. My first reaction is this would seem to hurt McCain and possibly help Romney in that it narrows the field, removing what many saw as a McCain surrogate. The best thing McCain could have hoped for was Thompson staying in the race and continuing to draw votes from litmus test conservatives. From the campaign:

"Today I have withdrawn my candidacy for President of the United States.  I hope that my country and my party have benefited from our having made this effort.  Jeri and I will always be grateful for the encouragement and friendship of so many wonderful people."

So, who becomes the candidate of choice for online conservatives? Romney?

Patrick Ruffini is running a poll over at Hugh Hewitt’s website attempting to measure which candidate Fred Thompson’s supporters (FredHeads) would back assuming Thompson drops out of the race.

With about 4,000 votes, the overwhelming choice so far is Mitt Romney, with 74 percent. And in a second poll, 88 percent of respondents say a Thompson endorsement of John McCain would make “no impact” in their decision of whether or not to support McCain.

There are so many problems with this poll it would be a greater challenge to find something right about it than to outline the number of things wrong with it. First, the poll is being hosted on a website operated by Hugh Hewitt, an ardent Romney supporter. Second, McCain’s web presence has always been quite weak, so it’s unlikely a surge of online Thompson supporters would migrate to someone they’ve never been fond of. Third, not only is it a pro-Romney website, but many people forget that before Ron Paul’s “Ronulans,” or “Paultards,” began their great spamming adventure, it was Romney’s “Rombots” who were infamous for stacking online polls and surveys.

Then there’s the question of how much a Thompson endorsement would actually matter outside of the blogosphere. If he can’t get actual voters to support his campaign, what are the odds he could sway a significant portion of the electorate to vote for someone else?

If Fred Thompson drops out of the presidential race, he may do so with the conviction many say his actual campaign lacked. Jim Geraghty talks to a "Thompson source," and offers the following interesting tidbits:

He has not spoken to any other campaign or any other candidates, nor does he intend to at this time.

He will not endorse, I am told by this source close to Thompson.

I am also told, "he has no interest in a vice presidency or a cabinet position." At an "appropriate time" he will outline his plans for the near future.

Fred Thompson’s South Carolina concession speech has left both online observers and the traditional media confused as to exactly what his intentions are. Most expected Thompson to dropout, but his speech was more a rehash of conservative platform points with no indication of whether a possible withdrawal was imminent.

Nonetheless, Powerline Blog’s Paul Mirengoff writes the Thompson obit:

Word is that Thompson will return to Tennessee to visit his mother in the hospital. While he's there, presumably, he'll consider his options. Frankly, and I say this with regret, it's difficult to see the case for him remaining in the race.

Classic conservatives, and bloggers in particular, have largely supported Thompson’s campaign, but lamented his lack of enthusiasm and late-game effort. Or, as Hot Air puts it:

When push came to shove, he just … didn’t have enough cowbell.

Red State says Thompson goes out, “Not With a Bang, but a Whimper.”

Meanwhile, NRO’s Jim Geraghty continues to make a case for why Thompson should stay in the race:

[If] he really finds some of his other rivals as not-conservatives who are unacceptable to carry the Republican mantle, why not stay in this thing until the end, collect as many delegates as he can, and at the very least, throw them to the one he finds most acceptable at the GOP convention?

Fred Thompson himself has said he needs to do “very well” in South Carolina for his presidential campaign to go on. Most analysts have said that means winning, or at least placing a very strong second.

But NRO’s Jim Geraghty now says a strong third should be enough for the Thompson campaign to continue. Geraghty points to this new ARG poll which shows Fred Thompson trailing Mike Huckabee and John McCain, but leading Mitt Romney and writes:

A finish like that - behind McCain with 26 percent and Huckabee with 36 percent, but beating Romney by 9, would be plenty reason to stay in the race.

Is this 2008 Republican primary season becoming the Special Olympics of political contests, where all the participants get at least one "very special" primary or caucus victory?

A handful of conservative bloggers, lead most prominently by Quin Hillyer, are calling on South Carolina Republicans to vote for Fred Thompson in Saturday’s primary. Thompson has held a strong standing in the right roots community throughout his campaign, but Hillyer tries reaching beyond those confines to the broader GOP community with a big tent approach:

If I were a South Carolina Republican voter on Saturday, then for parochial, tactical, and philosophical reasons, I would vote for Fred Thompson.

This doesn't mean that I would not have voted for Mitt Romney in Michigan on Tuesday, if I were a Michigander, or that I would not vote for Rudy Giuliani in Florida later this month. Voting in each state, especially in a drawn-out nomination battle, involves particularly local considerations as well as national ones.

In other words, Duncan Hunter fans don’t give up hope on a special caucus exclusive to California’s 52nd district, where your guy just might have a shot!

Hillyer also tries to argue that by choosing a different winner than IA or NH voters, SC could boost its prominence in future primary elections. That logic is a little sketchy, but the points about Thompson’s conservative platform and cultural ties to the region are solid, winning praise over at The Corner.

Meanwhile, Red State’s Erik Erickson follows Thompson on the SC trail where it is snowing and Thompson is apparently winning over audiences.

And Matt Continetti looks into Romney’s lowered SC expectations despite his Mighigan win.

A day after his best debate performance, Fred Thompson picks up the endorsement of the conservative magazine Human Events. The endorsement makes three references to Reagan, including one directly comparing the two lawmakers:

We like the way Thompson unhesitatingly attacks the liberal ideologues and their activists such as MoveOn.org and the ACLU, and the way he reaches out to those we knew as the Reagan Democrats.

The question now is whether Sen. Thompson will do what he has not yet done: Take the advantages he is given by his intelligence, his principles, his political skills and this endorsement and make the best use of them.

Thompson also gets overwhelming support from a poll of conservative bloggers posted on Right Wing News. Along with winning against the GOP field, Thompson comes far out ahead in every positive category. Of course, it's also worth noting that Duncan Hunter comes in second. Maybe bloggers just like the drop out tease?

Conservative bloggers have been the biggest boosters of Fred Thompson’s presidential campaign. And why not? His so-called “different kind of campaign” has had most of its few highlights targeted at the Internet, his charisma charms the righty bloggers, and he has a solidly conservative background. They also like Mitt Romney and Duncan Hunter, but if conservative bloggers controlled the vote, Fred Thompson would be our next president.

Some conservative blogger reactions to last night's debate:

Erik at Red State declares:

Fred Thompson owned this debate. He owned it. He dominated.

Powerline says the battles were a) Thompson vs. Huckabee, b) McCain vs. Romney and c. Giuliani vs. irrelevance:

Thompson came out swinging at Huckabee, and he landed some good blows -- notably on Huckabee's "blame America first" foreign policy, his stance on taxes, and his immigration policy as governor. Huckabee responded as he often does, with charm and evasion. This approach has worked for him in the past, and it may have worked tonight. But if the voters were paying attention, then an awful lot of traditional South Carolina conservatives had to be much more impressed by Thompson than by Huckabee.

Hot Air posts video of the Luntz polling group I mentioned last night.

Finally, Michelle Malkin agrees that Thompson won the debate but thinks it’s probably too late to matter:

The Luntz focus group on Fox (no sign of that repeat dude) weighed in on Thompson. The majority said he won the debate, but wondered how much it would matter. He has a few diehard supporters, but several more expressed doubts about his viability. He’s entertaining, said one member, but lacks consistency in his performances. Several agreed: “He’s late.”

Fred Thompson hosted a conference call with conservative bloggers today.

Ed Morrissey posts some highlights:

On his competition, he agreed with one blogger who called most of his opponents liberals. Fred doesn't think that the media picks candidates as much as rolls with whatever story arises and tries to build themes with them. He will try to draw distinctions between the other candidates and true conservatism in the debate tonight. Keep an eye out for that tonight.

Thompson also said his "individualism" and "authenticity" are his greatest strengths.

The Weekly Standard recaps the questions, while Powerline adds:

South Carolina is the ideal state for Thompson to make his stand in. It's a traditionally conservative southern state in which he has friends and contacts. Thompson insists, moreover, that he has enough money to engage the voters, and not just at a purely "retail" level. He promised to be "competitive" on the state's airwave. In Thompson's view, a vast portion of the state's Republican electorate is undecided (polls tend to confirm this) and likely to be receptive to his message.

Rasmussen Reports has an early poll out of South Carolina showing Mike Huckabee with a solid lead at 28 percent, to John McCain's 21 percent.

Mitt Romney places third with 15 percent and Fred Thompson gets 11 percent. Rudy Giuliani is also in double-figures, with 10 percent of the vote.

Of course, these numbers are bound to change after tonight's results from New Hampshire. How much of a boost will John McCain get? How far will Mitt Romney's numbers fall? And will Mike Huckabee's numbers be affected at all?

Can’t wait for next week’s New Hampshire primary? National Review’s Jim Geraghty reminds us that Wyoming’s GOP caucus is tomorrow and could provide at least a small boost for Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson or Ron Paul. That’s because while most candidates have ignored the state, the Romney and Thompson campaigns have spent organization time and/or money there, while the Paul campaign has been taking out newspaper ads:

Who wins is anybody's guess, as no polls have been conducted or released. The Billings Gazette notes, "some Republican committee members say a couple of candidates - Romney and Thompson - may be rising to the top." Ron Paul has been buying newspaper ads in the state.

Fred Thompson's campaign has been denying last night's story from the Politico, which cites sources "close" to the former senator claiming he will drop out of the presidential race and endorse John McCain if he doesn't finish at least second tonight in Iowa.

Thompson adviser Mary Matalin just told MSNBC's Norah O'Donnell that Thompson “unequivocally” denies the rumor and will not drop out no matter what happens in Iowa tonight.

If the Thompson story falls apart, it would be a tough mark for the paper which last March incorrectly reported that John Edwards was dropping out of the race.

However, the story has already likely damaged Thompson, whether it was accurately reported or not. Conservative blog Red State jumps to Thompson's defense, refuting the Politico piece in two separate posts. Red State's Erik Erickson outlines the path to a successful Thompson nomination run:

Clinton lost Iowa and New Hampshire before winning South Carolina and coming back. Fred has the online support. He's going to do better than people expect in Iowa (he actually is). Huckabee is going to beat Romney today so those two are going to fight like drag queens wearing the same dress to a party. Fred needs to leverage these three things and go to South Carolina.

Meanwhile, Red State diarist Pejman Yousefzadeh bucks the polls and predicts a Thompson victory in Iowa:

Thompson: 22

Romney: 21

Huckabee: 20

McCain: 17

Paul: 11

Giuliani: 9