Beyond the Dome

If you read between the lines of Barack Obama’s press conference in Jordan today after his visits to Iraq and Afghanistan, you can easily see how the actual number of troops a President Obama would withdraw from Iraq might not live up to the hype.

Obama spent much of the time talking about how his responsibilities would be different from those of Gen. David H. Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq — who, he acknowledged, “does not want a timetable” for withdrawing troops. If he wins the White House, Obama said, he would have to balance the needs of the commanders in Iraq with the need for more troops in Afghanistan and the need to “shore up a U.S. economy that is really hurting right now.”

If that’s all you heard from Obama’s press conference, it might sound like he’s going to pull all the troops out no matter what — exactly the notion John McCain’s campaign is trying to advance.

“The difference between Senator Obama and John McCain is that Senator Obama is deciding based on a calendar, and John McCain believes that withdrawal must be based on conditions on the ground,” Republican Rep. Heather Wilson of New Mexico said on a campaign conference call with reporters this morning.

But Obama also threw in so many caveats that it’s very easy to see how he could end up keeping a large number of U.S. troops in the region and withdrawing far fewer than his campaign would like the voters to believe.

For one thing, Obama said he would satisfy the commanders’ need for flexibility by letting them define how many troops he’d keep in Iraq to defeat any flare-ups from al Qaeda or renewed attacks from Shia militias. “I have deliberately avoided providing a particular number on that because that is precisely the kind of thing where our military commanders have to tell me what they need in order to accomplish that mission,” Obama said.

He also seemed to leave himself some wiggle room to send troops back, if necessary.

“If, for example, you started seeing a resurgence of ethnic violence that was — that presented the possibility of genocide, that I would always reserve the right as commander in chief to intervene — hopefully, with the international community,” Obama said.

The bottom line, he said, is that “facts have to affect your decision-making, and, you know, over the course of 16 months things are going to constantly change. But that doesn’t detract from the importance of setting a set of clear objectives and having a sense of where you’re trying to steer the ship. And that’s what we haven’t had, and that’s what I think is so important.”

Call it the fine print, an escape hatch, whatever you want. But if Obama is the president a year from now, just don’t say you’re surprised if the big troop withdrawal fizzles.