President Obama sounded a note of optimism about the economy in his speech on financial regulation today, declaring that “the storms of the past two years are beginning to break.” It appears, however, that that may not be true for the poorest Americans. For them, in fact, the worst of the storms may be yet to come.

A report issued late last week by the Brookings Institution projects that the national poverty rate will continue to climb because of the recession, peaking at 14.4 percent in 2011 or 2012 — up from 12.5 percent in 2007 — as more people are thrown out of work. That means another 8 million people could be thrown into poverty, in addition to the 37 million people who were poor in 2007.

Don’t look to Brookings for any “light at the end of the tunnel” rhetoric. “This recession will cast a long shadow on those at the bottom of the ladder — a group that was not doing well before the recession arrived and which will be disproportionately affected long after it has ended,” the report stated.

Monday marked the deadline for states to submit applications for some of the $8 billion in high-speed rail funding contained in the economic stimulus package (PL 111-5). You'll recall how the Obama administration and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., muscled the rail money into the financial recovery bill during a House-Senate conference last February, in spite of watchdog groups' concerns that it could benefit construction of a long-planned magnetic-levitation, or "maglev," train connecting Las Vegas, in Reid's home state, and Southern California.

Now, the debate seems to be pivoting around whether the sum is enough to build rail networks of any consequence, and whether high-speed rail will deliver on environmental promises its proponents are promiting.

The Obama administration envisions a series of 100-600-mile corridors consisting of upgraded lines and entirely new track that could allow trains to sweep between cities at speeds between 150-250 miles per hour. Amtrak Acela trains operating on the line between Boston and Washington currently have the capability of running at more than 150 miles an hour, but the tracks will not accommodate such speeds.

The politically sensitive issue of executive pay has provided much fodder for President Obama and Congress during the economic downturn.

The president in early February made a populist-tinged statement about corporate excesses by placing a salary cap on top executives at firms receiving "exceptional assistance" from the government. Congress followed suit days later by quietly slipping language into the economic stimulus package (PL 111-5) that limited bonuses for senior executives at companies that participate in the federal bailout program. Lawmakers have since taken other steps that apply to companies not receiving government aid; before the August recess the House passed a bill that would give shareholders a nonbinding vote on executive pay and allow fregulators to restrict incentive-laden compensation packages if they threaten the health of larger financial institutions.

The scrutiny enters a new phase on Thursday, when seven large companies that received bailout packages will present compensation plans to Kenneth Feinberg, Obama's "special master" on executive compensation.

American International Group Inc., Bank of America, Chrysler LLC, Chrysler Financial Corp., Citigroup Inc., General Motors Corp. and GMAC Inc. will detail how they play to pay their top 25 earners in the coming year. Feinberg's response, due within 60 days of the submissions, will probably influence the pay practices of much of the financial industry.

President Obama moved his previously scheduled remarks on the economy from a gym at Fort Myer, Va. to the Rose Garden on Friday after the Labor Department reported that unemployment fell in July for the first time since April 2008, to 9.4 percent, in another sign the recession might be easing.

Sunshine, singing birds and colorful flowers surely evoke better times ahead, and helped put an exclamation point on a jobs report that exceeded the expectations of most economists and even the White House.

Obama took a victory lap of sorts, crediting the economic stimulus package (PL 111-5) and other Democratic initiatives for bringing the nation back from the brink. And he again plugged overhauling the health system, creating green jobs and bolstering education as necessary for building a sustained recovery.

"We have a lot further to go. As far as I am concerned we will not have a true recovery as long as we are losing jobs," Obama said. The president went on to rhapsodize about Americans he's met who are facing adversity but managing to keep their faith in the country and the future.

Such lofty talk doesn't mean Obama is finished playing the blame game, however.

President Obama plans to huddle with his Cabinet and top advisers on Friday and Saturday to review lessons learned from his first six months in office. There's bound to be some gnashing of teeth over the pace of the health care overhaul, and also some satisfaction over signs the economy is staggering back.

But based on his remarks at Wednesday's town halls in Raleigh, N.C. and Bristol, Va., don't expect a major recalibration of the administration's message.

Obama continued to strenuously defend economic relief efforts launched in the aftermath of last fall's financial crisis and lay some blame at the feet of former President George W. Bush. And he eagerly portrayed himself as a responsible steward of taxpayers' money, to deflect persistent Republican charges that he's incapable of controlling federal spending.

Grim news Thursday for backers of the foreclosure prevention program (PL 111-22) that the Obama administration promoted and Congress enacted in May. Midyear statistics compiled by the online marketplace RealtyTrac found a total of 1.9 million foreclosure filings were reported on more than 1.5 million properties across the country -- a 9 percent increase over the previous six months and a 15 percent jump over the first half of 2008.

The numbers were further proof that the real estate downturn hasn't ended, and that the administration's economic relief efforts have yet to tamp down a dramatic rise in default notices, auction sales and bank repossessions. The numbers were particularly disturbing because big lenders including Citigroup Inc., Wells Fargo & Co. and Bank of America Corp. had agreed to suspend foreclosures while the administration worked out its plan to modify mortgages for troubled borrowers.

The program attempts to aid homeowners on the brink of foreclosure by helping them refinance into 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages insured by the Federal Housing Administration. It changed the yearly insurance premiums that participating homeowners must pay to the FHA from 1.5 percent of the value of the mortgage to "up to 1.5 percent," essentially giving the government the flexibility to lower the premiums. And it extended through Dec. 31, 2013, an increase in deposit insurance coverage by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and National Credit Union Administration.

If you’re a Republican, reacting to today’s jobs report is the easiest task in the world. The economy lost 467,000 jobs in June, far more than expected — which means Republicans now have a strong reason to ask what we’re getting out of the $787 billion stimulus package.

“Spending, taxing, and borrowing with reckless abandon is no way to create more jobs,” House Minority Leader John A. Boehner of Ohio said in a statement this morning. Republican National Committee chairman Michael Steele said the numbers prove that “the stimulus package is not a ‘Recovery Act.’ ” Boehner even released a video featuring bloodhounds trying to find any jobs created by the stimulus. (Get it?)

But what do you do if you’re a Democrat? Your spin job is a lot harder. Finally, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California showed her party how it’s done. You sympathize with those who lost their jobs but say it would have been worse without the stimulus. And — still — you blame George W. Bush.

President Obama continues to enjoy strong public approval ratings in virtually every category, except when it comes to spending and the deficit.

And though White House strategists swear they don't fixate on day-to-day blips in public opinion, they surely are concerned that the administration's budget proposals are projected to swell the deficit above $1.8 trillion this fiscal year -- a record in dollar terms and also the biggest deficit as a percentage of the gross domestic product since the end of World War II.

So it was hardly coincidence that Obama on Tuesday took a high-profile vow of fiscal responsibility by calling for a return to statutory "pay-as-you-go" treatment for legislation. The deficit-control rules were first written into law in the Budget Enforcement Act of 1990 (PL 101-508), but Republicans who controlled Congress for most of the current decade allowed them to lapse at the end of fiscal 2002, preferring to require offsets for new entitlement spending but not for tax cuts.

The Obama administration usually shows disdain for chronological milestones and what top officials derisively refer to as "Hallmark holidays." But with concern mounting that stimulus dollars aren't flowing fast enough to make a difference in economically stressed communities, the White House on Monday issued a new spending plan to guide the second hundred days of the implementation the economic recovery package (PL 111-5) that Congress passed in February.

The so-called "Roadmap to Recovery" spotlights ten major initiatives the administration says will save or create 600,000 jobs. The projects, enumerated on the White House web site recovery.gov range from creating 125,000 summer jobs for youths to breaking ground on 2,300 construction projects at military facilities around the country. Other steps include expanding service at more than 1,100 community health centers and accelerating maintenance repairs at 98 airports and on more than 1,500 highway projects.

"Our measure of progress is the progress the American people see in their own lives," said President Obama, who was presented the list by Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. at a Cabinet meeting . "And until that progress is steady and solid; we're going to keep moving forward. We will not grow complacent or rest."

Friday's news that the economy shed another 345,000 jobs in May triggered one of those "good news, bad news" moments at the White House and sent critics and supporters of the economic stimulus package (PL 111-5) into heavy spin mode one more time.

The job losses were lower than had been feared, which almost qualifies as a cause for celebration for an administration increasingly intent on demonstrating that its $787 billion pump-priming of the economy is working.

Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., who's minding the store while President Obama travels in Europe, met with Council of Economic Advisers Chair Christina Romer and his chief economist, Jared Bernstein, then tried to sustain the administration's careful management of public expectations in remarks to reporters.