Balance of Power

And there have only been four cloture votes — the votes needed to end filibusters — in the entire history of Supreme Court nominations, according to a Congressional Research Service report issued last month. A 1968 vote on Abe Fortas’ nomination to be chief justice failed; William H. Rehnquist faced two cloture votes, one in 1971 when he was first nominated to the court, the other in 1986 when he was in line to become chief justice; and Samuel A. Alito Jr. survived a 2006 cloture vote and now sits on the court.

That doesn’t mean justices are always confirmed by lopsided margins, though. Clarence Thomas wasn’t filibustered, but his 52-48 confirmation was the closest margin for a Supreme Court justice in more than a century. And even though Alito survived his cloture vote by a wide margin — 72-25 — the actual confirmation tally was much closer: 58-42. (Several of his Democratic critics voted against him, but didn’t try to block his nomination outright.)

Sure, interest groups may be itching for a fight. But in all likelihood, it would take a real poke in the eye from Obama to get Republicans to mount the kind of filibuster that would make 60 votes necessary.

That’s not to say, however, that Republicans and conservative interest groups won’t try to depict the eventual nominee as just that kind of poke in the eye.